Exchange vs withdrawal: January outcomes

UK Property Market Update The headlines for the 5th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun 8th February 2026) 🟩 Listings - Strong
170k new properties have come onto the market YTD , 1% ahead of 2025, 12% above 2024, and 24% higher than the 2017–19 average. 🟩 Gross Sales - Strong
114k UK homes sold STC YTD , 15% higher than 2024 and 23% above pre Covid norms. 🟩 Net Sales - Strong
87k UK net home sales YTD (Gross sales less Fall Thrus) running 15% ahead of 2024, 33% ahead of 2023 and 19% above the 2017–19 average. 🟩 Overvaluing - Awful 47% of the homes that left UK Estate Agents books in January were withdrawn unsold. Main cause - blatant overvaluing supported by long sole agency agreements of 20+ weeks.     ✅ The YouTube Show   The YouTube  ‘UK Property Market Stats Show’ for the week ending Sunday 8th February 2026 (week 5) with the brilliant Alice Bullard of Nested    https://youtu.be/E3iv-jQ8u2o Detailed Breakdown …   ✅ New Listings   •           36.9k new properties came onto market this week in week 5, up from 36.6k last week. •           2025 weekly average: 30.6k. •           10-year week 5 average : 33.4k   ✅ Price Reductions   •           21k reductions this week •           12.2% of resi homes for sale were reduced in January. Jan 25 - 12.8%. Jan 24 - 11.1% •           2025 average was 12.8%, versus the 5-year long-term average of 10.74%.   ✅ Sales Agreed   •           25.4k homes sold stc this week 5, slightly down as expected from 26k last week. •           Week 5 average (for last 10 years) : 24.8k •           2026 weekly average : 22.2k.   ✅ Price Difference between Listings & Sales •           19.7% difference (long term 10 year average is 16% to 17%). (£425k ave Listing Ave Asking price vs £366k Sale Agreed ave Asking price)     ✅ Sell-Through Rate   •           13.6% of homes on agents’ books went SSTC in January ’26. (Jan ’25 - 15% / Jan ’24 - 13.9%) •           Pre-Covid average: 15.5%.   ✅ Fall-Throughs   •           5,468 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 423k home Sold STC). •           Weekly average for 2025: 6,100. •           Fall-through rate: 21.5%, slightly up from 20.5% last week. •           Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%).   ✅ Net Sales   •           20k Net sales, down slightly from 20.7k last week •           Ten-year Week 5 average: 19.7k. •           Weekly average for 2026: 17.4k. •           Weekly average for the whole of 2025: 19.2k. ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal)   •           Jan ’26 Stats : 53% of homes that left agents’ books exchanged & completed in Jan. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more Feb stats come in). •           December 60.2% / November 55.2% / October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. •           Jan 25: 54.3% / Jan 24: 50.7% / Jan 23: 54.4%  / Jan 22: 68.6% ✅ Stock Levels   •           663k homes on the market on the 1st of February ’26. (660k - Jan 25) •           422k homes in agent’s sales pipeline on the 1st Feb 2026, slightly lower than 12 months ago on 1st Feb ’25 (433k).   ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft)   •          January ’26 agreed sales averaged £340.73 per sq.ft. 0.63% higher than 12 months ago (£338.59) and 16% than 5 years ago (£293.54). The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important.   ✅ Local Focus Ashford (Kent)