Adobe's Stock Drop and AI Threat

The panel looks at Adobe's past dominance, current challenges, and uncertain future as AI tools and lower-cost alternatives reshape the creative landscape. Chuck Joiner, David Ginsburg, Eric Bolden, Marty Jencius, Web Bixby, Jim Rea, and Jeff Gamet cover how generative AI, subscription fatigue, collaboration gaps, and competitors like Affinity, Canva, and Figma are changing who really needs Adobe services such as Creative Cloud, while reflecting on historical tech shifts and whether Adobe's next chapter has already been written. A documentary recommendation wraps up this session.

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Chapters:

00:00 Adobe's past, present, and AI disruption 01:12 How AI fits into professional creative workflows 03:09 Adobe's difficulty pivoting in a fast-moving market 04:29 Desktop publishing history: PageMaker, Quark, and InDesign 07:09 Public perception of AI "replacing" Adobe tools 09:26 Photoshop Elements and missed marketing opportunities 12:41 Subscription fatigue and rising alternatives 14:04 Collaboration challenges and Canva/Affinity momentum 17:45 Shift from print-centric tools to digital workflows 22:13 Designers leaving Creative Cloud behind 25:12 Adobe's legacy status and future positioning 31:31 The Thinking Game documentary recommendation

Links: Adobe's stock has slumped more than 45% since the end of 2023, reflecting analyst concerns over the threat of AI-driven disruption to SaaS companies https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-13/adobe-analysts-turn-most-bearish-since-2013-as-ai-threat-looms

The Thinking Game | Full documentary | Tribeca Film Festival official selection https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d95J8yzvjbQ

Guests:

Web Bixby has been in the insurance business for 40 years and has been an Apple user for longer than that.You can catch up with him on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn, but prefers Bluesky.

Eric Bolden is into macOS, plants, sci-fi, food, and is a rural internet supporter. You can connect with him on Twitter, by email at embolden@mac.com, on Mastodon at @eabolden@techhub.social, on his blog, Trending At Work, and as co-host on The Vision ProFiles podcast

Jeff Gamet is a technology blogger, podcaster, author, and public speaker. Previously, he was The Mac Observer's Managing Editor, and the TextExpander Evangelist for Smile. He has presented at Macworld Expo, RSA Conference, several WordCamp events, along with many other conferences. You can find him on several podcasts such as The Mac Show, The Big Show, MacVoices, Mac OS Ken, This Week in iOS, and more. Jeff is easy to find on social media as @jgamet on Twitter and Instagram, jeffgamet on LinkedIn., @jgamet@mastodon.social on Mastodon, and on his YouTube Channel at YouTube.com/jgamet.

David Ginsburg is the host of the weekly podcast In Touch With iOS where he discusses all things iOS, iPhone, iPad, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and related technologies. He is an IT professional supporting Mac, iOS and Windows users. Visit his YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/daveg65 and find and follow him on Twitter @daveg65 and on Mastodon at @daveg65@mastodon.cloud.

Dr. Marty Jencius has been an Associate Professor of Counseling at Kent State University since 2000. He has over 120 publications in books, chapters, journal articles, and others, along with 200 podcasts related to counseling, counselor education, and faculty life. His technology interest led him to develop the counseling profession 'firsts,' including listservs, a web-based peer-reviewed journal, The Journal of Technology in Counseling, teaching and conferencing in virtual worlds as the founder of Counselor Education in Second Life, and podcast founder/producer of CounselorAudioSource.net and ThePodTalk.net. Currently, he produces a podcast about counseling and life questions, the Circular Firing Squad, and digital video interviews with legacies capturing the history of the counseling field. This is also co-host of The Vision ProFiles podcast. Generally, Marty is chasing the newest tech trends, which explains his interest in A.I. for teaching, research, and productivity. Marty is an active presenter and past president of the NorthEast Ohio Apple Corp (NEOAC).

Jim Rea built his own computer from scratch in 1975, started programming in 1977, and has been an independent Mac developer continuously since 1984. He is the founder of ProVUE Development, and the author of Panorama X, ProVUE's ultra fast RAM based database software for the macOS platform. He's been a speaker at MacTech, MacWorld Expo and other industry conferences. Follow Jim at provue.com and via @provuejim@techhub.social on Mastodon.

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