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Ep. 425: Philip Tetlock Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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The Importance of Mental Agility in Forecasting

Researchers have found that merely asking people to assume their initial judgment is wrong produces a second estimate. It's almost like getting a second opinion from yourself, but the combination of the two makes you more accurate. No forecasters, super or regular, is going to be an expert quote-unquote on anything more than a tiny fraction of the questions posed because they're so heterogeneous. This is putting a premium on mental agility and being a quick study.

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