Cycles Against Trends (guest: Alfonso Peccatiello)
The Market Huddle
00:00
How to Predict Equity Market Returns
The amount of S&P 500 returns that is explained solely by the change in bank reserves is 3% Kevin. People like to extrapolate that changes in bank reserves tend to drive changes in equity prices. If you run a very simple linear regression and you say, okay, let me look at the changes in bank reserve against the changes in equity price, it doesn't work.
Play episode from 18:55
Transcript
