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Ep. 425: Philip Tetlock Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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The Nature of Superforecasters

It's not true that anyone could be a superforecaster, but there are certain cognitive and motivational prerequisites for becoming one. The advising member of people could improve their probability estimation skills quite a bit if they follow the guidelines in the book. You don't learn to distinguish 60-40 bets from 40-60 bets by using vague verde-gage forecasting like I think there's a distinct possibility of X. "The only way you learn is by making your judgments explicit, getting feedback and learning"

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