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Cycles Against Trends (guest: Alfonso Peccatiello)

The Market Huddle

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The Long-Term Trend in Inflation

There are reasons to believe that structurally speaking, the trend in inflation might be higher than it was over the last decade. It's very hard to stick to a long-term thesis if you cannot manage and draw down the cycle while you still follow the trend. This is a cycle, a macro cycle in inflation. And this inflation return has been pretty strong over the last few quarters. But as you mentioned, the last six months of oil has given up 50% of its gains. The commodity super cycle, I mean, oil is down 50% or something for the last few weeks. Why don't you explain a little bit about your process of how you go about taking these insights into

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