The Pain Trade Is Not a Pain Trade

When I look at monetary policy, it's really about the rate of change of credit conditions. It was much harder for asset owners to watch real interest rates move from negative 200 basis points to positive 200 basis points in 2022. The third dimension is obviously inflation and here we need to look mostly at the inflation cycle if you're trying to be tactical. So this is not the most bullish setup for stocks in general, but this is also not the most terrible out there.