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Ep. 425: Philip Tetlock Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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The Importance of Persuasion

We talked about how super forecasters are less likely, for example, to believe in fate than regular forecasters or most citizens are. Super forecasters don't think that way. They think, well, things happen. Someone had to win. Something very improbable just happened. Impossible things do sometimes happen. It would be very unlikely if unlikely things never happened. That's even true for lottery runners, for example. When they win, they often infuse it with some deeper metaphysical significance that it was somehow meant to be.

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