Oil demand, supply growth, and long-term bearish view

Stijn Schmitz welcomes a new guest to the show David Woo. David is a Macro Analyst and Former Wall Street strategist. In this wide-ranging interview, Woo provides insights into the current geopolitical and economic landscape, focusing on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its potential implications for global markets. Woo argues that the current war represents the first proxy conflict between the United States and China, with Iran playing a strategic role. He suggests that the conflict’s outcome could significantly impact global dynamics, particularly concerning oil trade and maritime control. Specifically, he highlights the potential for China to resist US control of the Strait of Hormuz, drawing parallels to historical conflicts like Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.

Regarding gold, Woo offers a nuanced perspective. He explains that gold’s recent performance has been more closely correlated with stock market movements, driven largely by retail investor behavior rather than traditional fundamental drivers like inflation or de-dollarization. While he remains long-term bullish on gold, he believes the metal’s short-term performance is more tied to broader market sentiment.

On oil markets, Woo is fundamentally bearish, citing massive global production increases from non-OPEC producers like Ghana, Venezuela, Brazil, and the United States. He anticipates oil prices will eventually collapse, particularly once the current conflict resolves. He also sees potential opportunities in defense-related sectors, believing increased military spending is likely in the conflict’s aftermath. Woo’s analysis extends to broader geopolitical trends, including the potential reshaping of global economic relationships.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:40 – Guest Introduction and Welcome
00:03:30 – Gold’s Correlation with Stocks
00:06:38 – Retail Investors Driving Gold
00:10:54 – De-dollarization and Inflation Trends
00:13:00 – China’s Gold Buying Impact
00:15:17 – Energy Outlook
00:19:22 – Iran Off-Ramp?
00:21:56 – War Outcomes and Military Spending
00:23:00 – Conflict Outcomes
00:25:00 – Hormuz in Dire Straits?
00:27:15 – Proxy War with China
00:30:30 – Petrodollar System Status
00:32:57 – Oil Futures Curve Analysis
00:34:22 – Oil Demand
00:37:30 – Short-Term Approach
00:38:33 – Rare Earth Metals
00:41:00 – His Book and Gold

Guest Links:
Website: https://davidwoounbound.com
X: https://x.com/Davidwoounbound
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Formerly Head of Global Interest Rates and former senior Wall Street strategist, David built his reputation by challenging consensus thinking — calling Trump’s 2016 election, the post-COVID rebound, and major macro inflection points before they happened.

One of the most respected macro strategists on Wall Street, today he brings that same independent, data-driven analysis directly to retail investors — free from institutional bias, groupthink, and agendas.

He is joined by John Hopkinson, PhD, a mathematician trained at MIT, who translates David’s macro vision into precise, actionable trading strategy — complete with stock selections, targets, and stop levels published every week.