Predictive Models Inform Key Trades

Every day, we face choices that could change outcomes in business, health, or life itself. Increasingly, computers are offering guidance. What happens when that advice clashes with human intuition?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore the high-stakes friction between human intuition and algorithmic guidance.

Dean Oliver, a data scientist at ESPN and author of Basketball on Paperand Basketball Beyond Paper, tells the story of the 2008 Boston Celtics. Facing a crossroads on roster moves and trades, the team made a radical gamble: They relied heavily on advanced analytics to reveal what traditional scouting missed. This choice ignited a data revolution that changed professional basketball forever.

Next, Katy speaks with Jennifer Logg, an assistant professor of management at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. Logg shares her research on how people respond to computer-generated predictions. She reveals the specific moments when machine advice consistently outperforms human judgment—and the hidden dangers that emerge when those systems are built on flawed or biased data.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

0:00 Introduction

1:00 Would You Trust an Algorithm Over a Friend for Cooking Advice?

2:36 This is Choiceology 

3:11 The Boston Celtics’ Rebuild Meets Analytics

17:13 The Rise of Algorithm Trust 

18:56 Why We Prefer Algorithms to People with Jennifer Logg 

32:37 Trust Algorithms With Care 

35:31 Final Thoughts & Next Time

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. 

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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