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Ep. 425: Philip Tetlock Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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The Lessons Learned From the Iraq War in 2003

I don't think the research project, the tournament even would have happened had the intelligence community not made self-mass of an error on WMD. There was no smoking gun but there was a lot of circumstantial evidence. Saddam behaved in ways to encourage the impression that he had something that he had because he didn't want to appear weak. So Saddam was actually facilitating the hardliners, making it easier for the hardliners who ultimately destroyed him.

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