Ep. 425: Philip Tetlock Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
00:00
The Benefits of Thinking More Probabilistically
You're not trying to tell people, hey, this is about meaning or this is about happiness. You're just kind of saying, here's the data. Take your or leave it. If you want to enjoy the benefits of thinking more probabilistically, the book lays out how you can go about doing that. Naseem Talib puts more emphasis on the radical unpredictability of high impact events like that's low so-called Black swans. So I think we see greater value in investing energy and improving the accuracy of probability judgments. We prefer to think of there being a continuum from white swans to gray swans,. The dark gray swans, the black swans.
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