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Ep. 425: Philip Tetlock Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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The Probabilistic Way of Thinking in Public Discourse

The accuracy of probability estimates of single events is inherently indeterminate. We don't draw the inference that a forecaster is bad simply because he or she was on the wrong side of maybe on a particular call. This means we're going to have to start thinking about forecasting and judgment in a different sort of way, says David Frum.

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