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Ep. 425: Philip Tetlock Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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The Importance of Probability in Decision Making

When you have the motivation of making money, it's quite different than if you're a president. I think in both cases, the decision maker has to grapple with uncertainty and make implicit or explicit probability judgments that are going to influence their decisions. Just as the prediction markets weren't quote unquote right about Obamacare, but they tend to be pretty well calibrated.

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