Art Market: Myth, Safety and Discovery

The global fashion industry is a $2.5 trillion economic engine, and yet in the corridors of Washington and high finance, it's often treated as a sideshow. This week I was in DC at Semafor World Economy, listening to conversations about AI and genomics and energy — and arguing that fashion is actually one of the best barometers we have for where the global consumer is heading.

Because the luxury landscape is being reshaped in real time. This week LVMH reported that its fashion and leather goods division contracted by 2 percent in the first quarter. Kering's group revenues were also flat, with Gucci down 8 percent. Meanwhile Ralph Lauren has raised its guidance three times in the past year, with revenue up 12 percent in the most recent quarter. And Zegna's flagship brand grew more than 7 percent in the fourth quarter.

So what are these winners doing differently? In this episode I sit down with three leaders who, from very different starting points, offer a remarkably consistent answer — one that has little to do with logos, scarcity or hype, and everything to do with substance, inclusion and a clear sense of what customers are willing to pay for.

First, Ermenegildo Zegna, group executive chairman of the Zegna Group, on why he chose this moment to step back as chief executive and hand the reins to his sons. We talk about vertical integration as a hedge against inflation and the formula he’s giving the next generation to run by.

Ermenegildo Zegna: "Think slow but act fast. These to me are the most important criteria for being successful."

Then, I’m joined by Patrice Louvet, president and chief executive of Ralph Lauren, and Noah Horowitz, chief executive of Art Basel — two leaders whose businesses keep growing while the rest of the market softens. We unpack why Patrice thinks the industry is working from a “lazy definition” of luxury, and ask why — in a world of frictionless, AI-powered shopping — the most valuable thing a brand can offer is a reason to show up in person.

Patrice Louvet: "We're not in the apparel business. We're in the dreams business."

Three leaders. Three businesses. One consistent answer about what luxury looks like now.

Key Insights: 

• The Next-Gen Handover: Ermenegildo Zegna stepped back from the CEO role at age 70, appointing his sons to lead the Zegna Group. He emphasises that in times of change, leaders must "think slow but act fast" and remain true to core values.

• Vertical Integration as Resilience: A key differentiator for Zegna is its "sheep to shop" model. By owning 60 percent of its supply chain, the group maintains quality control and a compelling value perception that justifies its luxury pricing in an inflationary market.

• The Experience Economy: Both Ralph Lauren and Art Basel are leaning into "experientialisation". Patrice Louvet argues Ralph Lauren is in the "dreams business," comparing Ralph Lauren's creative process to a movie director rather than a traditional designer.

• Inclusive vs. Exclusive Luxury: Ralph Lauren differentiates itself through "inclusive luxury," welcoming customers into stores styled as "homes" and offering products ranging from $12 socks to $320,000 watches. This contrasts with retail peers who use security guards and create long queues.

• Art as a Human Market: Noah Horowitz notes a "flight to safety" in the art world, where collectors are moving away from speculative contemporary trends toward well-priced masterworks and global discovery. He defines the market as "confidence-driven," relying on community and connectivity.

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