The World Unpacked

Heads of state from the G20 countries assemble this weekend for their international summit, and all eyes are on U.S. President Trump. So far his track record overseas has been one of sparring and tension, following the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and the ill-humored G7 and NATO meetings earlier this year. However, on his first stop of this trip in Poland he gave a more supportive speech and endorsed the idea of NATO’s article five. So where does all this leave the United States in terms of global leadership? Tom is joined by Carnegie Senior Fellow Jake Sullivan, former adviser to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, to discuss the G20 summit and the future of U.S. leadership. Jake Sullivan served in the Obama administration as national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden and director of policy planning at the U.S. Department of State, as well as deputy chief of staff to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Sullivan is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Geoeconomics and Strategy Program and a Martin R. Flug Visiting lecturer in law at Yale Law School.​ (More on Sullivan -http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1335)

Despite the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, the transition to a low-carbon economy is speeding along. For example, twice as many Americans are employed by the solar industry as in the coal industry, and that trend seems to be accelerating. In fact, some have argued that the Trump administration’s withdrawal from Paris may accelerate the adoption of a green economy, given the number of states, cities, companies, and organizations pushing for Paris-friendly policies as a result. Carnegie Fellow David Livingston joins Tom, along with Lisa Hagerman and Jigar Shah, to discuss the transition to a low-carbon economy. David Livingston served as the inaugural Robert S. Strauss fellow for geoeconomics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative, where he concluded as acting Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Congressional Affairs. He is an associate fellow in Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, where his research focuses on geoeconomics, markets, and risk. (More on Livingston - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/553) Lisa Hagerman is the director of programs at DBL Partners. (More on Hagerman - http://www.dblpartners.vc/people/lisa-hagerman/) Jigar Shah is the co-founder of Generate Capital. (More on Shah - https://generatecapital.com/)

The West has long been a font of stability, prosperity, and security. Yet when faced with global instability and economic uncertainty, it is tempting for states to react by closing borders, hoarding wealth, and solidifying power. In a compelling new book, The Fate of the West: The Battle to Save the World’s Most Successful Political Idea, former Economist editor Bill Emmott argues for a return to the core values of openness and equality of opportunity that are increasingly eroded in today’s global political climate. Emmott joins Ashley J. Tellis, the Tata Chair in Strategic Affairs at Carnegie, and Tom Carver to discuss the challenges facing Western states and potential strategies for the revitalization of liberal democracy. Ashley Tellis served as senior adviser to the ambassador at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. He also served on the U.S. National Security Council staff as special assistant to President George W. Bush and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia. He is the author of India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture (RAND, 2001) and co-author of Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (RAND, 2000). Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs.​ (More on Tellis - carnegieendowment.org/experts/198) Bill Emmott is an independent writer, lecturer, and consultant on international affairs, and former editor-in-chief of the Economist. He is also chairman of The Wake Up Foundation. (More on Emmott - billemmott.com)

Where is Turkey heading? Last month president Erdogan narrowly won a referendum to give his presidency sweeping new powers. What does this portend for Turkey's relationship with the region and the rest of the world? And how far is he planning to go to entrench the pier of the AKP in his pursuit of Islamic nationalism at home? Tom Carver discussed Turkey's trajectory with Carnegie Europe's Sinan Ülgen and the director of Carnegie’s Europe Program, Erik Brattberg. Sinan Ülgen is the author of Governing Cyberspace: A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership (Carnegie Europe, 2016), Handbook of EU Negotiations (Bilgi University Press, 2005), and The European Transformation of Modern Turkey with Kemal Derviş (Centre for European Policy Studies, 2004). He has served in the Turkish Foreign Service in several capacities: in Ankara on the United Nations desk; in Brussels at the Turkish Permanent Delegation to the European Union; and at the Turkish embassy in Tripoli. (More on Ülgen - http://carnegieeurope.eu/experts/?fa=547) Erik Brattberg is director of the Europe Program and a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. He joined Carnegie from the McCain Institute for International Leadership at Arizona State University, where he was the director for special projects and a senior fellow. (More on Brattberg - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1342)

Millions of people in the developing world encounter corruption every day, in the form of bribes they have to pay to go about their daily lives. But there’s an insidious form of corruption that permeates entire structures, including governments, which is often hidden in apparently legitimate activity. Carnegie Senior Fellow Sarah Chayes has been researching this form of corruption for the better part of a decade. She argues that in corrupt countries, kleptocratic networks involve not only government officials, but private industries and established criminal networks. In her recent report, When Corruption is the Operating System: The Case of Honduras, Sarah examines how the kleptocratic system functions in a case study on that country. Sarah joins Tom and Zephyr Teachout, author of Corruption in America: From Benjamin Franklin’s Snuff Box to Citizens United, and a democratic candidate in the New York gubernatorial race, for a discussion on corruption and power. Sarah Chayes is internationally recognized for her innovative thinking on corruption and its implications. Her work explores how severe corruption can help prompt such crises as terrorism, revolutions and their violent aftermaths, and environmental degradation. (More on Chayes - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/712) Zephyr Teachout is an associate professor of law at Fordham University. (More on Teachout -https://www.fordham.edu/info/23186/zephyr_teachout)

As the recent horrific bombings show, there are no easy solutions in Afghanistan. The conflict is the United States’ longest-running war, and despite the billions of dollars that have been spent in foreign support since 9/11, the Taliban continues to pose a major security threat. The White House is in the midst of a review of its Afghanistan policy and will decide later this year whether to increase the number of US troops in the country. Carnegie expert Ashley Tellis has analyzed the issue for many years, and discusses the choices facing the White House with Tom Carver. Ashley Tellis served as senior adviser to the ambassador at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. He also served on the U.S. National Security Council staff as special assistant to President George W. Bush and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia. He is the author of India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture (RAND, 2001) and co-author of Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (RAND, 2000). Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs.​ (More on Tellis - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/198)

On May 19, Iran elected a new president. Centrist incumbent Hassan Rouhani won by a comfortable margin in a high-turnout election, defeating hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi. With the dust settled, what does the outcome mean for Iran's young population, for the region, and for the United States? Carnegie’s Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour discusses the election result and what it means with Tom Carver. Karim Sadjadpour, a leading researcher on Iran, has conducted dozens of interviews with senior Iranian officials and hundreds with Iranian intellectuals, clerics, dissidents, paramilitaries, businessmen, students, activists, and youth, among others. He contributes regularly to publications such as the Economist, the Washington Post, the New York Times, the International Herald Tribune,and Foreign Policy. (More on Sadjadpour - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/340)

18 million people are estimated to work for the Indian national government, and that number doesn’t include India’s regional and state governments. Yet, compared to the size of the Indian population—1.3 billion—it’s not very large. The biggest challenge for the Indian state is not its size, but its inefficiency. While the last three decades have seen dramatic transformations in the country’s economy and the private sector, the state has failed to modernize at the same rate. Tom Carver talks the authors of a new book titled, Rethinking Public Institutions in India, Carnegie Senior Fellow Milan Vaishnav, Devesh Kapur and Pratap Bhanu Mehta, about the massive challenges India faces and the state’s ability to adapt. Milan Vaishnav is the author of When Crime Pays: Money and Muscle in Indian Politics (Yale University Press and HarperCollins India, 2017). His work has also been published in scholarly journals such as India Review, India Policy Forum, and Latin American Research Review. He is a regular contributor to several Indian publications. (More on Vaishnav - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/714) Devesh Kapur is the director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India, and a professor of political science and Madan Lal Sobti professor for the study of contemporary India at the University of Pennsylvania. (More on Kapur - https://casi.sas.upenn.edu/about/people/devesh) Pratap Bhanu Mehta is the president and chief executive of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi and a contributing editor at the Indian Express. (More on Mehta - http://www.cprindia.org/people/pratap-bhanu-mehta)

Europe’s relationship with its eastern frontier is at a turning point. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, and the ensuing crisis in Ukraine, has forced the EU to reevaluate its relationship with its eastern neighbors. The heady, post Cold War optimism of a single free Europe has confronted cold, hard reality. Carnegie Senior Fellow Richard Youngs joins Tom Carver for a conversation about his new book, Europe’s Eastern Crisis: The Geopolitics of Asymmetry, to discuss how reality is threatening the fundamental principles of the European order. Richard Youngs has authored eleven books. His most recent works are Europe’s Eastern Crisis: The Geopolitics of Asymmetry (Cambridge University Press, 2017), The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy (Carnegie, 2015), and Europe in the New Middle East (Oxford University Press, 2014). He has held positions in the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and as an EU Marie Curie fellow. (More on Youngs - http://carnegieeurope.eu/experts/?fa=828)

The French presidential elections have captured attention around the world as the populist firebrand Marine Le Pen faces off with political newcomer Emmanuel Macron. As the final round of voting approaches, Tom Carver is joined by Erik Brattberg, director of Carnegie’s DC-based Europe Program, and Pierre Vimont, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe in Brussels to discuss the rising frustration with “politics as usual” in France that has led to such a riveting contest. In this episode, recorded shortly after France’s first round of voting, Brattberg, Vimont, and Carver discuss the echoes of the 2016 U.S. election, the future of Euroscepticism, and analyze future of France under each prospective president.​ Erik Brattberg is director of the Europe Program and a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. He joined Carnegie from the McCain Institute for International Leadership at Arizona State University, where he was the director for special projects and a senior fellow. Brattberg was previously the 2014 Ron Asmus Policy Entrepreneur Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and visiting Fulbright fellow at Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins SAIS. (More on Brattberg - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1342) Pierre Vimont is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe. In June 2015, Vimont was appointed personal envoy of the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, to lead preparations for the Valletta Conference between EU and African countries, to tackle the causes of illegal migration and combat human smuggling and trafficking. During his thirty-eight-year diplomatic career with the French foreign service, he served as ambassador to the United States from 2007 to 2010, ambassador to the European Union from 1999 to 2002, and chief of staff to three former French foreign ministers. He holds the title, Ambassador of France, a dignity bestowed for life to only a few French career diplomats.​ (More on Vimont - http://carnegieeurope.eu/experts/1041)