Economy Watch

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bond markets are ramping up their defensive posture, especially in the US, as American economic data fades further.But first up today, there was a GlobalDairyTrade Pulse powder auction today and prices slipped again. They were down -1% from the prior full event a week ago for SMP and dived a rather sharp -4% for WMP. This will keep downward pressure on pay-out forecasts for the current season, especially the WMP result.In the US, the ADP weekly employment report said a net -13,500 US jobs were lost last week, the largest weekly drop since ADP started releasing their weekly data. The pace of payroll shrinkage seems to be rising in the US.American retail sales growth slowed to +4.3% in September from the + 5.0% rise in August. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose +0.2%, half the expected +0.4% increase and suggesting the weakness is concentrated recently. Observers will be watching the weak car sales component, especially.Producer prices rose +2.7% in September from a year earlier, exactly as expected.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in October from year-ago levels, the second consecutive monthly dip, and the eighth of 2025. However they did record a seasonal rise from September.The latest factory survey from the Richmond Fed covering the mid-Atlantic states was quite negative.And the Dallas Fed services survey was downbeat too, although the contraction there was at a slower pace than in October.So it will be no surprise to learn that the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey was also quite negative, falling sharply and mirroring the similar University of Michigan survey. Perceptions of inflation rose, to 4.8%.And traditional Thanksgiving travel plans are being scaled back. They were expecting a rise this year, but the economic situation and uncertainties about disruptions are seeing an unexpected rise in cancellations, so a decline is now anticipated.Across the Pacific in South Korea, consumer sentiment is rising. Their central bank's survey revealed a Composite Consumer Sentiment Index at the highest reading since November 2017. Their renewed confidence follows a major trade agreement with the US and stronger-than-expected economic growth.In Taiwan, retail sales rose +1.9% in October from the same month a year ago, a bounce-back from the -1.6% dip in September. Meanwhile their industrial production expanded sharply again, up another +14.5% on that same year-on-year basis, although the pace of expansion seems to be slowing a bit even if it is strong.The UST 10yr yield is now under 4.00%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday to 3.99% as a defensive mood takes hold.The price of gold will start today at US$4138/oz, and up +US$42 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1 from yesterday to be just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding at just under 56.1 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just under 87 AUc. Against the euro we have dropped -20 bps to 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.8, and little-changed if soft.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,996 and down -0.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.Today, the RBNZ will review the OCR and issue its final Monetary Policy Statement of the year. Join us from 2pm when we will start our full coverage.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news holiday season retail cheerleaders may have to work harder this year to induce spending.First, Americans are expected to be out retail shopping this week in record numbers, up almost +2% this year than last year. But doubts are also rising about how much they will spend. Research shows shoppers are wary of high prices driven by tariff-taxes, and are hitting the streets mainly in search of bargains and with stricter budgets. The recoil that "everything is more expensive" comes as other surveys show Americans refuse to dip into savings to pay for holiday shopping. That is leaving many observers suspecting this year's holiday sales volumes may be stunted.And local manufacturers are finding that retailers are not ordering like they used to.The Dallas Fed’s Texas factory survey retreated in November (to -10.4, from -5 in October), a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. Interestingly, outlook views worsened even though they reported a modest rise in new orders. Cost pressures rose.Meanwhile, Canada's manufacturing sales data for October turned negative, although not as negative as expected. This comes after an unexpectedly upbeat September, so more of a settling than a decline.Across the Pacific in Singapore, they are getting another whiff of CPI inflation. Their rate climbed to 1.2% in October from a year ago, from 0.7% in September and the highest level since January. Food prices rose the most in six months.And new information from China's recently adopted 5-Year Plan, is helpful in put Beijing's influence on the giant Chinese economy in perspective. There are calls for more central control of the economy by Beijing, because they provide only about 15% of all budgeted public expenditure, the rest from provincial and local government. Some want that to rise to 40%. For perspective, the OECD average is 60% from central government.In Australia, they will implement age-restrictions for social media platforms on December 10, almost all of them American-owned and all enabling unrestricted criminal communications that also enable users to bully and exploit minors (Americans regards that as 'free speech'). It is a move that is being watched by many countries, the latest being Malaysia. So far, no American operator has said it will obey Australian law in Australia.On the geopolitical trade front, China has made some more soybean purchases, but relatively minor ones. It does keep the Americans interested, but so far in the 2025/26 season they have bought about 12% of their trade-deal agreement level.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4096/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices have largely held from yesterday to be just under US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also holding at just under 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.8, and down a bit less than -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,268 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Q3 is developing better than expected in most parts of the world.But first, this week will be all about Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review, where a-25 bps rate cut is widely expected. That will probably push term deposit rates down, and floating mortgage rates down too. But it is still unclear how it will affect fixed home loan rates. After that, we will get the local consumer and business sentiment updates.In Australia, the key data release this week will be Wednesday's monthly CPI data for October, expected to dip from 3.5% to 3.3%.Elsewhere there will be a lot of data from the US early in the week as they clear the decks with shutdown-delayed data before they go on their four-day Thanksgiving weekend break. Other countries will be releasing GDP and inflation data too.In China, attention will turn to October industrial profits and the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for November. In Japan, markets will focus on October labour and industrial production data. In India, GDP figures are expected to show that the economy grew at a slightly slower pace in July to September 2025, though most analysts still anticipate growth above 7%. The Bank of Korea will review its policy rate too but no change is expected.Over the weekend, China reported that its foreign direct investment inflows were still struggling in October, but they were at least positive in the month. They rose marginally more in the October 2025 month than in the weak October 2024 month. For all of 2025 so far, these flows are still -10% lower that the same period last year.In India, their very strong economic activity expansion eased in November, but only slightly and is still rocketing along at a very fast pace in both their services and factory sectors. But of note here is that price pressures are easing.Japanese exports came in stronger in October than expected, up +3.6% from a year ago when a +1% rise was anticipated. That dovetails into a better than expected 'flash' November factory PMI for Japan - but it isn't yet quite at the expansion level. But their 'flash' services PMI certainly is and it expanded faster in October than expected.And the Bank of Japan is close to raising their policy interest rate above the current 0.5% when they next meet on December 18, 2025. If not then, then in the January meeting.In Europe, ratings agency Moody's has upgraded Italy’s sovereign rating one notch to “Baa2” (ie BBB) and revised its outlook from positive to stable. They said Italy's consistent track record of political and policy stability has allowed their first upgrade in 23 yearsIn the US, the S&P Global factory PMI dipped but is still reporting an expansion (51.9). Their services sector expanded faster to a moderate level (55.0), and this was better than expected. Of concern however is that these surveys report input cost inflation accelerated sharply in November, hitting its fastest rate for three years. Of course, tariff-taxes were the predominant reason cited. It may seem unlikely there would be a rate cut on December 11 (NZT) when the Fed next meets, but one important Fed member does still see a cut possibility.Business activity might be expanding, but American consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey confirms it is now at record lows. The final November survey reports consumers are very frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. The spoils of expansion and success are accruing to a very few which is building a toxic divide there. Holiday weekend retail sales data will tell us a lot about how most American consumers are feeling about the lead-in to 2026.On the trade front, it appears the much-heralded resumption of soybean purchases by China from the US, isn't happening apart from token trades.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday, down -8 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4064/oz, and down -US$20 from Saturday. But down -US$34 for the week.American oil prices have largely held from Saturday to be just on US$58/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62.50/bbl. These are both down -US$2 for the week.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from Saturday but down -70 bps for the week. So far in November it has devalued by -2.3%. Against the Aussie we are holding at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.9, little-changed from Saturday, but down -50 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,576 and up +2.3% from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$95,780 so it is down -9.9% since then.. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets investors are looking sceptically at restarted US data and the outstanding Nvidia result.First, the American initial jobless claims reporting has restarted, and they say 216,700 new people filed for these benefits last week, up from 214,000 in the same week a year ago. There are now 1.727 mln people on these benefits, up from 1.66 mln a year ago and the highest since 2021.And for the record, they released their September non-farm payrolls report overnight too, claiming +119,000 new jobs created in the month. The non-seasonally adjusted data records a rise from the same month a year earlier of +1.2 mln, the least year-on-year rise since the pandemic. The related wage growth data was weak. And they also announced that they will not be releasing an October report.Meanwhile, the Philly Fed factory survey for October weakened again, including for factory orders. Inflation pressures were reported as higher. Despite all this extended depressed state, these firms say they are optimistic about the future.It was the inverse story for the same report from the Kansas City Fed. Current conditions were mildly positive and stable, cost pressures eased, but future prospects are less enthusiastic. New order levels dipped here too, but only slightly.In Canada, their October PPI came in +6.0% higher than year-ago levels, a rise. They may be surviving the trade war punishment from the US, but it is coming with higher costs.In Taiwan, their October export orders rose +25% from the same month a year ago. As high as that is, it just continues the stellar expansion they have reported all year.In China, they say they are going to extend their trade-in subsidy program, to keep their modest consumer spending levels underpinned.And as widely anticipated, the People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a sixth consecutive month in November. But there is increasing talk that they will be [pressured into reducing them at some stage to weigh against below-target growth.In Europe, German producer prices fell in October, down -1.8% from the same month a year ago.In Australia, the IMF told them that they should hike their GST, abandon their tax cuts, and spend more carefully if it wants to keep a fiscally sustainable economy.And Australia released its GDP by State (they call it GSP). On a real basis for the year to June 2025, NSW expanded +0.9%, Victoria by +1.1%, Queensland by +2.2%, South Australia by +1.0% and Western Australia by +1.3% from the equivalent 2023/24 year. The national rise was +1.4%. But on a per capita basis, only Queensland and Tasmania recorded gains. Nationally it was a -0.3% decline per capita.Global freight rates for container cargoes were unchanged over the past week, to sit -46% lower than year ago levels. But the weekly change masks rising outbound China to Europe rates, while outbound China to the US rates are falling. Meanwhile, bulk cargo freight rates rose +11% over the past week and are now +39% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4055/oz, and down -US$16 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened another -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price little-changed and still under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and little-changed from yesterday, and still its lowest since July 2009.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,411 and down another -2.4% from yesterday and -11% below year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets are even more skittish today, with key activity moving into bond markets even at higher yields.First, American mortgage applications fell back last week and by their most since late September. Fears about rising interest rates are getting the blame as it sinks in that highish inflation isn't going away. Refinance activity was the hardest hit. Still, it and purchase application levels remain well above year-ago levels.There was also official data released overnight, old catchup data for the US trade balance for both goods and services. That came in at the expected -US$50 bln deficit for August, exports flat, imports also flat. That was slightly better than August 2024 but almost identical to August 2023.And there will be no October jobs report from the US. It has been cancelled, officially because they "couldn't collect some data", but more likely because it would have delivered news the White House didn't want.Meanwhile reports circulate that the US is not only rolling back tariff-taxes on food imports, it is also close to rolling them back on steel and aluminium, maybe like the food rollback, somewhat selectively.The latest US Treasury 20 year bond auction raised US$17.8 bln at a median yield of 4.65%, up from 4.46% at the prior equivalent auction a month ago.The US Fed minutes of their last meeting on October 30 are due to be released at 8AM NZT. There is intense interest in these, more so because Trump as one acolyte in on the meetings pushing for [dangerous] rate cuts. If there is important stuff that emerges, we will update this item here.In Japan, September machinery orders rose a better-than-expected +11.6% from the same month a year earlier, up an impressive +4.2% from August. (This result is not twisted by large, volatile items like for ships or major infrastructure machinery such as electric power plants. That would have pushed the rise even higher.) Export orders were particularly notable.And Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.77% on Wednesday, a 17-year high. A year ago it was at 1.06%. The recent climb comes ahead of a crucial ¥800 bln debt auction (US$5.1 bln) that could indicate investor appetite signals. That is important because the new Takaichi government plans major debt-financed stimulus which is raising fiscal concerns.Meanwhile, China has raised US$8.6 bln in USD and EUR bonds. While that is a lot for them, it pales compared to the US$234 bln that was bidIn Malaysia, they are still an export powerhouse with October exports up +15.7% from a year ago and to a record high, imports up +11.2%, also a record high, resulting in a larger positive trade balance than expected. In fact, they haven't run a trade deficit in any month since the pandemic.As expected, the Indonesian central bank left its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 4.75%.In Australia, payroll costs rose pretty much as expected in the September quarter. They were up +3.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter. Public sector wages increased +3.8%, slightly above the +3.7% rise in Q2, while private sector wages grew by +3.2%, easing from +3.4% previously. (Overall, total wages and salaries for all employees rose +5.3% for the year to September, boosted by an expanding workforce.)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4071/oz, and up +US$10 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59.50/bbl, with the international Brent price down to under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and down -50 bps from yesterday, to its lowest since July 2009.And we probably should note that the NZD has now fallen below 4 Chinese renminbi for the first time in three years.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,524 and down a sharp -4.2% from yesterday and well lower than year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news risk aversion is the theme of the day for investors who seem particularly jittery about AI valuations, crypto prices, and the prospects for the US economy.But first, we start today with the results of another full dairy auction, and they aren't good. Not so much because the overall result was down -3.0% in USD terms, more because that makes it seven declines in a row from early August, taking the cumulative drop to -13%. And the recent retreats seem to be getting more intense. We now have prices lower than year-ago levels. And the decline in USD is being matched by the decline in NZD now, down -2.9% in this latest event.Clearly analysts will be dusting off their current season payout forecasts because they are risk of being downgraded. Behind the softness is a faster-than-expected rise in dairy production levels due to good weather conditions globally. That is as true for New Zealand as anywhere, where milk production is rising. The pointy end of this pressure is the butter price, and that dropped -7.6% at this latest auction. WMP was down a lesser -1.9%, SMP down only -0.6%.In the US, the ADP weekly payrolls report delivered another drop, the one for the week to November 1 not as sharp as the prior week however. This data suggests the US labour market lost momentum in late October, with a number of large companies announcing job cuts during the month, including Amazon and Target.Official data releases are being restarted in the US, but the data is old now. Overnight they said August factory orders rose to be +2.0% higher than year-ago levels. But because this is not inflation-adjusted and the past US PPI rise was +2.6%, it probably means shrinkage in real terms. There has been no indication this things have improved from August.And restarted official jobless claims data is only for October 18, but it rose then to +232,000 and above the expected level of +223,000. Continuing claims were a touch under 2 mln (1.96 mln) and notably above the 1.85 mln in the same week in 2024.The US NAHB housing market index came in essentially unchanged for October from September and -17% lower than year-ago levels. But they will be pleased it didn't drop back.Yesterday we reported a good improvement for factories in the New York region. But today the report for the very much bigger services sector in the same region has remained very negative.We could perhaps note that the Atlanta Fed monitors home loan affordability for the US is a similar way we do for New Zealand. They say that in September 2025, 43% of take-home pay was required to service an American mortgage and that is 'unaffordable'. They say affordability starts when it is 30% or less. (Our New Zealand September HLA was 33.0%.)In Canada, housing starts dropped sharply in October to their lowest in six month and to levels lower than the same month a year agoThe Australian central bank released the minutes of its last meeting on November 4 yesterday, closely-watched because they have rising inflation and a relatively strong labour market. But they downplayed both aspects, calling them 'slight' and expecting them to be transitory. Policy was still viewed as slightly restrictive, and the board saw “no need to adjust” the cash rate. They said patience was deemed appropriate while assessing spare capacity, labour trends, and policy stance. Scenarios supporting a hold included stronger demand, lower supply capacity, or a view that policy was no longer restrictive. Conversely, further easing could be warranted if labour conditions weaken or growth disappoints. Basically, you don't learn anything by reading these minutes.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4061/oz, and down -US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened very slightly from yesterday to be just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price down -50 USc to US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.6 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.2, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,460 and down -0.4% from yesterday and it is still lower than year-ago levels. At one point in the past 24 hours it dipped below US$90,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are more twists and turns in international trade to report today.But first in the US, the NY Empire factory survey came in positively in November, on the back of a good rise in new orders. But they got a similar jump in November 2024, and this latest 2025 result is -7.5% lower than that.In Canada their inflation rate dipped slightly in October to 2.2% from 2.4% in September, and far less than the 3.0% and rising inflation rate last reported in their southern neighbour. Canadian petrol prices fell sharply, and the steam seems to have gone out of their grocery prices.Meanwhile, foreign investors are finding Canadian securities attractive, raising theri holdings sharply. They increased them by +C$31.3 bln in September, an unusual spike for a month that usually attracts only modest levels. Canadians themselves are choosing local securities increasingly too, in a substantial out-of-cycle rise of their own.In China, there is increasing talk that the weekend's very soft economic data will bring rate cuts to their loan prime rates when they are next reviewed on Thursday, even a cut in their reserve ratio requirement of banks. Both are currently at record low levels already.In something of a big positive surprise, Singapore's October non-oil exports rose sharply to S$17.2 bln, up more than +23% from year-ago levels up +15% from September. That is up from the +7% rise in September. Their non-oil exports to Thailand rose a massive +91%, to Taiwan a massive +61%, to South Korea by +38%. Going the other way, their exports to the US dropped -12%, and to both China and Japan were virtually unchanged.India exports fell almost -12% in October from a year ago, but Indian imports surged more than +16% in the same month. Indian exports to the US fell notably. That has resulted in a huge merchandise trade deficit blowout of -US$41.7 bln and by far and away their largest trade deficit. Fortunately they run trade surpluses for services, but even after than it was still a record -US$22 bln deficit and more than double year-ago levels.And we should note that aluminium prices, which are already very high, are likely to rise further on tight supply. Rio Tinto is adding surcharges on shipments to the US, where prices are globally elevated anyway due to tariffs, due to the supply shortage and the need for American to have to pay to get the product. That cascades through to consumer prices and inflation. These cost increases will be particularly troublesome for US-made cars.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4067/oz, and down -US$14 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have held from yesterday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price still just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.7 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3, and also little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,687 and down -0.5% from yesterday and it is now lower than year-ago levels. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is rising more quickly in one large economy, the US, and policymakers and financial markets are getting skittish.Firstly, this week will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia's release of the minutes of its November 5 meeting. There will be intense interest on their views of inflation risks. Then the US Fed will release the minutes of its October 30 meeting and observers will be looking for similar clues.Locally we will get another full dairy auction, and trade data this week, preceded this morning by the REINZ October results at 9am.Trade, inflation and PMI data will be coming from a range of countries. From the US, we await how they will be catching up with their official data releases. There will be the usual prosaic private sector data releases but the new weekly ADP employment data will bring intense interest, as will some earnings reports, especially from Nvidia.There will be little major data this coming week from China, because they released most of it this past weekend. And that was headlined by an big unexpected negative surprise from their fixed asset investment data. They said it fell -1.7% for the year to October. But that belies a huge -11% drop in the month from the same month a year earlier. For a country as large as China, that is a mammoth and sudden shift. The really large decrease was in the industrial northeast region. And it is puzzling analysts, especially in the light of the electricity data surge. Perhaps a clue is in this factoid in their data release: "fixed asset investment by foreign-invested enterprises decreased by 12.1%". The slump raises important questions about the health of their domestic demand which is still over-reliant on exporting. The internal economy still hasn't gotten over the real estate slump and the resulting defensive change in attitudes by their consumers.China’s new home prices in October across their 70 major cities were unchanged from September, officially, but dropped -2.2% from the same month a year ago. This was the same year-on-year decline they had in September. Most analysts expected a lesser decline of -2.0%. Seven of the 70 cities posited modest year-on-year price gains. None posted any gains for resales.Meanwhile, China's retail sales held up better than expected, up +2.9% from a year ago with better holiday spending. Their official industrial production was up +4.9% from a year ago in October, a rather large easing in their 6.0% September growth rate.China's electricity production fell in October, but that was less than expected and less that the usual seasonal pattern so it was up an unusually large +7.9% from a year ago. That may have something to do with the electricity appetite by AI infrastructure.In India, bank loan growth stayed very high in October to easily a new record, even if the percentage rise wasn't as high as September. That is now three consecutive months where new debt has risen by more than +11% from the same month a year ago.In Canada, they released some September data over the weekend and it was quite positive. Their manufacturing sales rose +2.7% real, and their wholesale trade rose +0.6% real, both from August. Year-on-year it isn't so positive although manufacturing sales are almost back to those levels (-0.8%) after being down -4.1% in May. Both data sets indicate remarkable resilience, and their fast transition even after being dumped-on capriciously by the US.And there was some interesting data out over the weekend from the EU, where their trade surplus rose to +€19 bln in September. That was its best in five months and +50% better that year ago results. Driving the gains were exports to the US and the UK, offset somewhat by imports from India and Mexico. Imports from the US rose too but at a slower pace than the export activity. Imports from South Korea fell sharply. Trade activity with China was little-changed although it remains deeply negative (that is, more imports from China than exports to China).In the US there are clear signs investors are getting quite skittish about the risks of bonds tied to AI companies. Don't forget bonds have priority over equities, so the dive for insurance on bonds isn't a great sign. Bloomberg is reporting the demand for credit default swaps is surging for these bonds and they cite what is happening in Oracle's case. A surge in debt is expected to flood debt markets soon as these AI companies ramp up funding of their plans.And there is the news that Trump is now rolling back some of his tariff-taxes, because even he can see they have caused household inflation and the 'affordability crisis' he is being blamed for. US inflation pressure is moving the dial in money markets. The chance of a Fed rate cut on December 11 (NZT) is fading, and quite quickly, as professional traders scale back the bets on a cut rather sharply.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up another +1 bp from Saturday at this time up +7 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4081/oz, and down -US$17 from this time yesterday. That is up +US$17 for the week.American oil prices have held from Saturday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$64.50/bbl, up less than +US$1 from a week ago.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.8 USc, and unchanged from Saturday, up +60 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3, little-changed from yesterday, up +60 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,374 and down another -1.5% from yesterday. That is its lowest since May 2025 and down -8.9% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that we have unexpectedly weak data from China and unexpectedly strong data from Australia.But first in the US, it is back to work for their Federal government after the record 43 day shutdown impasse ends - at least until January 30 when the current deal needs renewal again. Missed official data releases there may in fact be skipped, so there may not be a catch-up until the next scheduled releases.Meanwhile, American companies continue with their big job cuts.Across the Pacific in China, their new yuan loan levels for October came in unexpectedly weak. They dropped sharply to just ¥220 bln, down from ¥1.3 tln in September and ¥500 bln in October last year. Markets had expected ¥500 bln, so the actual data underscores the continued weakness in credit demand. To put it in perspective, apart from July's unusual dip, this October result is their weakest of any month in at least ten years.After a disappointing retreat in August, EU industrial production bounced back far less in September than expected. It is now only +1.2% higher (real) than a year ago, less than the expected +2.1% rise most analysts had anticipated. They will be disappointed, but for them at least it is still growing in real terms.In Australia, they delivered another very strong set of employment data with jobs expanding by +42,200 and full time jobs expanding by +55,300. Their jobless rate fell more than expected to 4.2% (NZ is 5.3%.) This, along with inflation above target, will have the RBA thinking hard about their December 9 cash rate target which is currently 3.6%. Aussie bond yields spiked higher on the news, taking the NZGB yields up with them.Australian consumer inflation expectations slipped slightly to 4.5% in November from 4.8% in October, the lowest reading since August. Actual CPI inflation in September came in at 3.5%.Also in Australia, the opposition Liberal Party has dumped its commitment to net zero policies, a capitulation that will likely isolate it further from the electorate. It will now really struggle to hold its big city electorates from spirited challenges by teal candidates. In an odd 'compromise' they committed to staying in the Paris Agreement, but without Net Zero that is just greenwashing which will fool no-one. We are probably witnessing the demise of a political party that once was their 'natural' governing political force. Australia will now need a proper liberal opposition to Labor, maybe one born out of the teals.Just as the Aussie Liberals were making that Trumpish decision, the IEA released its 2025 World Energy Outlook. It concluded that technology has moved so far so fast that "options to reduce emissions substantially are well understood and, in many cases, cost effective." From here, staying with fossil fuels will come with cost penalties.Globally, freight rates for containerised cargoes dipped -5% this past week mainly on China-US rates, although China-EU rates rose marginally. Overall that makes them -46% lower than year-ago levels. Bulk freight rates are little-changed this week, to be +25% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4198/oz, up another +US$8 from this time yesterday. It is rising again but it is still below its record US$4350 on October 21, 2025. Silver is moving up too, now at US$53/oz but again still lower than its its recent peak of US$54.50 on October 17, 2025American oil prices have recovered +50 USc from yesterday to be just on US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price now over US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.7 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have held at 86.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.2 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$101,032 and down another -0.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that with the Indian subcontinent on the edge of armed conflict and tit-for-tat terrorist moves and retaliation, the world's economy is ignoring these new risks.First up today, the US House of Representatives is set to vote to end their latest and record-long shutdown, and by the time you read this, have probably approved the compromise. This has seen Wall Street react with a split personality. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen to a new record high. But the broader S&P500 is becalmed, and the Nasdaq is lower. The bond market is more risk-averse. The USD is weakening. Just guessing here, but it seems markets think the shutdown pain was a wasted exercise and the result will be negative for the giant US economy. Rebooting their economy won't be easy.Meanwhile, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week, with the refinance market dipping slightly and the smaller new purchase market rising, actually with a notable increase. This came despite mortgage rates rising in the week.And more Americans than ever are falling behind on their car payments. According to Fitch Ratings, the share of subprime borrowers at least 60 days past due on their car loans rose to 6.65% in October, the highest in data tracking that started in 1994. And selling a used car to pay off the debt won't help. Record numbers of people doing that still owe loan balances after these sales.A well-supported US Treasury 10yr bond auction today brought a median yield of 4.02%, down from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, there were more positive economic signals. Building consents rose in September from August more than expected, led by multi-family projects in Alberta and Quebec and single-family homes in Ontario. But overall, they were still -8% lower than year-ago levels.In Japan, machine tool orders rose in October by more than +17% from the same month in 2024, driven by a +21% rise in export orders. They would have been happy about the +6% rise in orders from local manufacturers too.In China, residential real estate developers are under pressure to generate cash - again. Meeting year-end sales targets is crucial to hold on to their finance lifelines. So there are not only steep discounts on offer, but other creative incentives, such as "move in, buy later". One Guangzhou developer as a scheme where buyers front with a ¥100,000 deposit (NZ$25,000), move in for one month, and if they are not happy can move out with the only cost being one month's rent.In Malaysia, they have a buoyant retail sector with retail sales rising +7% in September from a year ago, accelerating from the +5% gain in the previous month. It was up +4.3% in volume terms and was their largest increase since January.In India, CPI inflation there has fallen to a record low +0.3% pa, down from +1.4% in September. Driving this is -5% deflation for food. In turn, that was caused by very good food growing conditions and heavy haervests.The RBI has an inflation target range of 2%-6% and this was the third consecutive month it has been below the bottom of that target. They will likely now move to cut their 5.5% policy rate soon, maybe at their next meeting on December 5, 2025.In Australia, the value of new owner-occupier home loan commitments rose +9.8% in September from a year ago. Investment lending for housing soared +18.7% on the same basis to a record high. The housing surge is in full flight of unbridled enthusiasm.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4190/oz, up another +US$77 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have dropped hard by -US$2.50 higher from yesterday to just on US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.6 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 86.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.2 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$101,589 and down another -1.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.