Economy Watch

Kia ora.Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news Taiwan's export prowess shows no signs of flagging.But first, US inflation expectations fell to 3.1% in January, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for petrol, and a slight easing in rent rises. But they still expect food prices to rise 5.7% over the next year.The release of US labour market data, and their CPI update later in the week is where the focus is currently. And the US dollar is weak again, back near its post-pandemic low.In China, their economy is gearing up for the Year of the Horse. China's Spring Festival holiday starts a week from today on February 17 and runs to March 3, 2026.Taiwanese exports in January were spectacular yet again. They were up +70% year-on-year to an all-time high of US$66 bln in the month, following stunning +43% growth in the previous month. Analysts were expecting a +50% rise. It is a virtuous result with every category of their export trade rising. Exports to the US jumped +150%, and are now accounting for one third of their third export trade - about the same as it is toi China.Malaysia's industrial production rose +4.8% in December from a year ago, the sixth straight month it has expanded by more than +4%.In Australia, household spending fell -0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. The only category that rose notably was alcohol sales. This follows rises of +1.0% in November and +1.4% in October. Household spending over the year remains high, up +5.0% in the year to December 2025.The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.20%, and little-net change from yesterday.The price of gold will start today up +US$107 from yesterday at US$5073/oz. Silver is up a sharp +US$5.50 at US$83.50/oz after recovering from a 2026 low.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$64.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at 85.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 63.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,013 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora.Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news all eyes will be on the US tech industry selloff that gathered pace last week, delivering collateral damage to cryptos, and a very volatile ride for precious metals.But first, this coming week will feature the delayed release of the January US non-farm payrolls report on Thursday (markets expect +70,000), and their CPI report on Saturday (markets expect 2.5%). Deviation from those expected levels will likely have financial market implications.Australia is set for a busy data week, with releases including household spending, consumer and business confidence, building permits, home loans, and consumer inflation expectations.In New Zealand the key data this week is for Q4-2025 ready mixed concrete, and migration updates. Plus Q1-2025 inflation expectation data.China will release its CPI and PPI data on Wednesday (expect 0.4%) as well as January new loan data this week too.In China over the weekend, their FX reserves got a boost from the weak USD in January which helped boost these by +US$41 bln from December to US$3.4 tln and the highest in more than a decade. That is up from US$3.2 tln in January 2025. They also added to their gold holdings, adding +40,000oz in the month to 74.19 mln oz. That is up +US$1.8 tln in a year.Also over the weekend, US economic data looked shaky. Initial US jobless claims rose by +22,000 from the previous week to 252,000 on the last week of January, sharply above market expectations of 212,000. There are now 2.215 mln people on these benefits, up +78,000 from a week ago but that is lower than a year ago (2.252 mln), even if it is very much higher than two years agoUS job openings fell by -386,000 to 6.5 mln in December, the lowest since September 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.2 mln.Job layoffs in January came in at 108,500, the highest level for a January since 2009.The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose marginally in February from its record low levels and it was a third consecutive monthly increase. Analysts had expected it to dip again. Despite the improvement, sentiment remained roughly 20% below January a year ago. The gains were driven largely by consumers with significant stock holdings, while sentiment among households without significant equity exposure stagnated at depressed levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations fell sharply to 3.5% from 4.0% in January, the lowest level since January 2025, while longer-term inflation expectations edged up for a second month to 3.4% from 3.3%.The jobless rate in Canada fell to 6.5% in January from 6.8% in the previous month, undershooting market expectations of 6.8%. But this 'improvement' was only due to fewer people looking for work. Their labour force contracted by -94,000, pushing the participation rate down to 65.0% from 65.4%. They lost -25,000 jobs in the month, interrupting the recent run of gains. But this was driven by a -70,000 fall in part-time jobs whereas full-time positions rose +45,000.Meanwhile Canadian retail sales data in both November and December came in quite positive.And their January Ivey PMI remained expansionary, a surprise because it was expected to shift back into contraction.Japan has been voting in their snap national election. It was essentially a referendum about Sanae Takaichi, a die-hard conservative in the Shinzo Abe mould. She has won convincingly with a rare single-party majority. Actually, it is better that that, a rare two-thirds super-majority.There was an election in Thailand as well, one where the ruling conservative/royalist/military party won, with 45% of seats decided, plus the proportional representation seats.At the end of last week, around the world, there were a series of central bank policy updates. The Reserve Bank of India kept its its key policy rate at 5.25% during its overnight February after cutting it by -25 bps at the prior December meeting. This is what was expected.In the EU, the ECB left its policy interest rates unchanged at its first policy meeting of 2026, on the basis that inflation is stable an within its target policy range. It is the "good place" the central bank wants to see.The Bank of England left its rate unchanged too, at 3.75%. But that was a close-run thing with a 5-4 vote.German factory orders surged +7.8% in December from November, defying market expectations for a -2.2% drop and accelerating from November’s marginally revised +5.7% gain. It is up more than +13% from a year ago. It marked the fourth straight monthly increase and the strongest since December 2023.Australia recorded a merchandise trade surplus of +AU$6.7 bln in December, down -23% from the same month in 2024, taking the full 2025 surplus to +AU$45.0, which in turn was -33% lower than for all of 2024. Exports were $523.2 bln for the year, up only +1%. That gain was only possible because gold exports rose +66% to AU$60.9 bln for the full year. Rural exports rose +13.7% to AU$77.5 bln in 2025. Other mineral export receipts tanked.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.21%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today very little-changed from Saturday at US$4966/oz. Silver is also little-changed at US$78/oz. In China, gold sales to investors topped those for jewelry from the first time in 25 years.American oil prices are down about -50 USc at just on US$63.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$68/bbl. A week ago these prices similar.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from Saturday, now just under 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.8, and down -10 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,693 and up +1.1% from this time Saturday. But it is still down -10% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

​By Gareth VaughanThe Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to lift its cash rate 25 basis points this week means it's now 160 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official cash rate highlighting differing levels of assertiveness between the two central banks, Imre Speizer, Head of New Zealand Strategy at Westpac, says.The RBS's cash rate is now at 3.85% with the RBNZ's OCR at 2.25%. Speaking in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast, Speizer says it has been 13 or 14 years since there has been such a gap, with the two economies tending "to cycle together most of the time.""It comes down to a different central bank approach. The RBA has deliberately maintained a fairly dampened approach to tackling either low inflation or high inflation. So when it has needed to hike or cut, it has done [so] in a very cautious and drawn out manner. And by doing so it hasn't had to flip around as much as the likes of some other countries," says Speizer."The central bank of New Zealand has been pretty much an activist in terms of tackling inflation. So when inflation was high in the most recent cycle it went fairly hard and hiked rates a lot to bring it back down again, and that then amongst other things did help to engineer a brief recession.""It paid a cost to do so but it got inflation under control. Now we're basically coming out of that era and [economic] growth is starting to pick up. And so the Reserve Bank [of NZ] is now faced with the task of thinking well at what point do we need to start thinking about pushing rates up to prevent inflation from running away?""I guess it just means the assertiveness of the relative central banks is probably explained [in] why we've ended up with such big differences between New Zealand interest rates and say the Australian interest rate. In time that will rectify itself and will get back to something that looks a bit more normal, I.E. Kiwi rates a little bit higher than Aussie rates. But I think it's going to be some way down the track," Speizer says.He says lots of people are asking how the cash rate differential between New Zealand and Australia might play out with mortgage rates."There shouldn’t be any direct impact if the cause of Australian rate rises is unique to Australia. But much of the time, there is a common global factor at play, so New Zealand rates do follow Australian and US term rates," Speizer says answering a follow-up question to the podcast interview."Also, if the strong Australian economy is seen as eventually benefitting New Zealand’s economy, New Zealand term rates could rationally follow Australian rates higher in dampened fashion."In the podcast audio he also speaks about the direction of swap rates and what it means for mortgage rates, what the yield curve's suggesting at the moment, the outlook for NZ government bonds, the impact the volatility of US President Donald Trump's administration has on the US dollar and financial markets more broadly, incoming Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, the impact of US government shutdowns on economic data availability, geopolitics and more.​

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the real economic markers in the world's largest economy painted a very lackluster picture today.US mortgage applications retreated again last week, for a second consecutive week. But these are still running well above year-ago levels. The refinance activity retreated but the big fall was for new purchase finance.Private businesses in the US added just +22,000 jobs in January according to the comprehensive ADP survey, (sample size of 26 mln) following a downwardly revised +37,000 rise in December and below forecasts for a +48,000 rise. Among these lackluster totals hiring in the health care sectors was a standout, adding +74,000 jobs. It was retrenchment in many others, including manufacturing.Remember the January non-farm payrolls report won't be released at its usual time on Saturday (NZT) due to the shutdown delays. It will now come next Thursday, February 12 (NZT).Meanwhile the ISM services sector PMI stayed in relatively good shape in January, although December was revised lower. New order growth slowed however, and price increases, pushed by tariff-taxes, rose.This is not translating into consumers buying cars at a higher rate. In fact, in January the annualised rate was only 14.9 mln vehicles, the slowest month since December 2022, and -4.1% lower than in January 2025.In China, and unlike the official January services PMI which was more negative, the private S&P Global version is more positive. The RatingDog China General Services PMI rose in January to a better expansion, from December’s six-month low and better than market expectations. It's the strongest expansion in their services sector since October, driven by stronger growth in new orders, and a fresh increase in foreign sales.Meanwhile China said its fiscal revenue fell in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic. Sharp falls in non-tax takings outweighed a modest recovery in tax revenue.In Europe, the surging value of the euro helped push down their January CPI inflation level to 1.7%. Food, however, was up 2.7%.Australia released some living cost indexes yesterday, following the overall 3.8% December CPI. They say living costs for 'employees' rose just +2.2% in the year to January, but for 'aged pensioners' it was up +4.2%.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +71 bps.The price of gold will start today down -US$120 from yesterday at US$4860/oz. Silver is down -US$1 to US$85.50/oz. Some non-precious metals are lower too.American oil prices are up a bit less than +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 59.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -40 bps at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.6, and down -50 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,550 and down another -3.3% from this time yesterday, and falling. The last time it was this low was in November 2024. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.Please note that it is a public holiday in New Zealand on Friday, Waitangi Day. This podcast will not be published on Friday, but will return on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news gold and silver are currently experiencing the volatility we saw with bitcoin in 2024/25. Meanwhile, bitcoin is being dumped heavily today.Today starts with a series of unfortunate delays. The overnight dairy auction has concluded after an extended delay, but there is further delays in reporting the outcome. We will update this item when those results come through.And there are delays in some key US data due to the snap federal government shutdown. We expected to report the December JOLTs report today but it is in abeyance now. And the January non-farm payrolls report will get delayed as well for the same shutdown reason.But we did get US logistics data overnight, their LMI. This rose because first started building inventories in the way they did in January a year ago, but not excessively. Of note however is that inventory costs rose a sharp +8.4% this year, which will no doubt focus management minds.There was a secondary survey out overnight on economic optimism in the US and that was moderately positive. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to its highest since August and above expectations. But to be fair it is still below the 2025 average and -6% lower than its year-ago level. But at least it is off its November low.In Canada, their large aircraft manufacturing industry is holding its breath. The Trump FAA is withholding technical certification for new-built Canadian aircraft, waiting for the president to decide on the issue.There was an unusual and notable rise in consumer sentiment in Taiwan in January, to its highest level in nine months. It is back up to mid-2023 levels after a general decline that started in September 2024.And China warned Panama there would be "heavy prices" to pay after a court ruling in Panama annulled Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison's contract to operate two ports at the Panama Canal. This reaction will have relevance for the Darwin port issue, where a new 99 year lease owned by a Chinese firm is under threat of annulment too.In Germany, and despite solid demand holding up, investors there are expecting and getting higher risk premiums for their government 30 year bond. It yielded 3.55% today, its highest in 15 years. Its 10 year bond is almost at 2.90%, and also near its 2011 levels. Germany plans to raise more than €500 billion this year to fund infrastructure upgrades and for defence spending. But most other European countries are doing the same, and that is driving up yields.In Australia, and as expected, the RBA raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 3.85% and ending its shortish easing cycle. Most big banks there have already announced a full pass-through to their home loan and business lending rates. The RBNZ reviews its policy rate on February 18, 2026 but is not expected to make any changes to its 2.25% rate at that time.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today up +US$273 from yesterday at US$4980/oz. Silver is up +US$8 to US$US$86.50/oz. Some non-precious metals are bouncing back sharply too.American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 64.1, and up +30 bps from yesterday. And the Chinese yuan is at its strongest level against the US dollar since 2023.The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,990 and down -5.0% from this time yesterday, and falling. The last time it was this low was in mid November 2024. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news commodity prices are still falling after last week's crazy surge. The retreats are widespread and substantial. Oddly, it isn't having much effect on commodity-based currencies however.But first today, the January factory PMIs for the US were positive, based on good new order growth. The closely-watched local ISM version expanded for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. Prices rose sharply for both inputs and outputs, and some buying appears to be to get ahead of expected price increases due to ongoing tariff issues, they said.Meanwhile the S&P Global factory PMI came in with similar trends, finding rises in production when sales growth was subdued. These two surveys are positive, but we should remember that January is "reorder month" and with the tariff threats lingering, it might mean this distortion is playing an outsized role.In China, their PMI's trends were not too different from the US, even if they were in contrast to their official version. They reported an expansion in production at a faster pace amid higher new orders. Employment rose Output charges increased for the first time in 14 months.In Taiwan, their factory sector recovery gathered pace in January, but cost pressures intensified.In Singapore and Malaysia, they recorded a January uptick, but the expansions there are still modest in their factory sectors.India and the US announced an agreement to lower tariffs and lower the temperature in their trade disputes. Given that India's exports to the US were already rising even with the higher tariff's, this is likely to be a substantial boost for India.Back in the US, and under the radar, they have entered a new federal government shutdown, with layoffs. This one is expected to be short because a deal between Congress and the White House seems to be in effect. But it will delay this weekend's non-farm payrolls report announcement.In Australia, Cotality said low supply levels, first home buyer incentives and a resilient labour market are combining to keep house prices rising. They are up +9.4% nationally from a year ago. But there is wide variation. They said mounting affordability and debt headwinds are butting up against 'fragile sentiment'. This is especially true where the prices are highest, in Sydney and Melbourne, where prices rose only +6.4% and +5.4% in January from a year ago, the least of any major city. The median house price in Sydney is now AU$1.29 mln (NZ$1,5 mln). It is now also above AU$1 mln in Brisbane at AU$1.055 mln (NZ$1.22 mln).The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today down -US$183 from yesterday at US$4707/oz. Silver is down -US$6 to US$US$78.50/oz. Non-precious metals are falling hard too.American oil prices are down -US$3 at just underer US$62/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.8, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,946 and recovering +2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.0% with all the fall coming yesterday.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news commodity and financial markets delivered some rather spectacular gyrations over the weekend, forcing investors to review how they are going to deal with the 'certainty of uncertainty' enveloping global markets.But first this week, our local coverage will be dominated by Wednesday's Q4-2025 labour market report. If it brings a notable improvement from the expected no-change 5.3% jobless rate, then the recent high inflation rate (3.1%) will get more of the RBNZ's attention at its February 18 meeting.Also this week, the RBA is meeting tomorrow to review Australia's monetary policy settings. A +25 bps change is now expected taking this rate to 3.85%, a sharp adjustment in sentiment following the strong December CPI data (3.8%).Elsewhere, important labour market data will come from the US at the end of the week via their January non-farm payrolls report. Markets expect a modest +70,000 job gain there, slightly better than the disappointing December +50,000 rise. Before that, there will be their JOLTs report, the ADP jobs report, and the layoff data for January. Then we get the first February consumer sentiment report, and it is expected to stay near its historic lows.There will be many more PMIs reported this week. And the EU will release its CPI data update, the ECB will review its policy rate. India will too. As will England.In Japan, they will release business sentiment survey results.But the week has already started in China, with dour official PMI survey results released. Their factory sector slipped back into contraction indicating their December expansion was a rogue result. Their services PMI also reverted to contraction as well, and they will be very disappointed. Neither was expected to reverse in January. The non-official PMIs will be released later today.Also over the weekend, Taiwan said its economy expanded at more than a +12% rate in Q4-2025 in a spectacular release, and their best quarter ever. That means all of 2025 was up +8.6%, even better than the outstanding 2025 gain of +5.3%. No wonder Beijing covets the neighbouring island nation.In Japan, they reported that its retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, although it did revise up its November retail sales results.In South Korea, the pandemic recovery excepted, their exports rose at a record +34% year-on-year rate in January to a massive US$66 bln. This is largely as a result of booming tech exports to China and the US. And it sets up 2026 with a great start, after 2025 exports also hit all-time records.Indian bank loan growth is still rising very fast indeed, up more than +13% year on year in its January 9, 2025 data released over the weekendIn the US, Trump said he will appoint Kevin Warsh from the conservative Hoover Institute and member of the billionaire Este Lauder family, to replace Powell when Powell's term ends in May 2026. The choice seemed to trigger the precious metals selloff. Trump once thought of appointing Warsh in 2017 but pulled back on doubts he would be compliant. Since then Warsh has become more MAGA.US producer prices rose +3.0% in December from the same month a year ago, defying expectations they would fall to +2.7%. Core data was up +3.3%, the fastest rise since July.Meanwhile in Chicago, the region's PMI made a spectacular recovery, one quite unexpected. New orders rose in this survey, employment surged. It is in complete contrast to the prior 25 consecutive months of decline. (However it will be worth waiting a month to know if this isn't just a rogue survey, one they have every two years or so. The last such unusual surge in November 2023 wasn't sustained.)In Europe, Eurozone economic activity rose +1.5% in 2025, up +1.6% in the wider EU, up from +0.9% in 2024 and better than the European Commission’s projection of +1.3%. Resilient household consumption, lower borrowing costs and easing inflation, and a surge in exports to the US, all contributed to the better result. Germany and Italy were laggards, France about average, and Spain expanded at double the overall average.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the weekThe price of gold will start today little-changed from Saturday at US$4888/oz when the big crash happened. Silver is down to US$US$84.50/oz.American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$65/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl. From a week ago these prices are up +US$3.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from Saturday, now at 60.3 USc. That is a weekly appreciation of +100 bps. From the start of the month it is up +300 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just over 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 63.9, and down -10 bps from Saturday, up +80 bps for the week, up +200 bps for the month, almost all because the USD devaluation in global markets.The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,404 and down a very sharp -6.8% from this time Saturday. That makes it down -18% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 0.8% with all the fall coming Saturday.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

By Gareth VaughanA new all-of-government strategy to tackle organised crime aims to make New Zealand the hardest place in the world for organised criminal groups to do business and following the money is key to the fight, says the Chairman of the Ministerial Advisory Group on Transnational, Serious and Organised Crime.One of the Ministerial Advisory Group's recommendations is to broaden the legal definition of money laundering, with barrister Steve Symon, who chaired the Advisory Group, saying money is the key driver."The reason they operate in New Zealand is money. I'm not saying that we will cure the problem of organised crime globally, but we can make New Zealand the hardest place for organised crime to operate, such that they'll see other markets as more lucrative," Symon says in a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast."We're effectively saying 'organised crime don't operate here, go elsewhere to do that.' We have to make it as challenging as possible for organised crime to profit from it, to use money.""The money laundering regime is a key aspect of that. Obviously there has to be a way for organised crime to take the money that they get from crime and benefit from it. Transfer it, launder it... into a way that they can use it," says Symon."The challenges that we have in relation to the current money laundering regime [are] probably best demonstrated by the small number of money laundering cases that go through our courts. We know that the drug trade is driven by organised crime. And...theoretically, for every drug case you should have a money laundering case as well."Symon says fortunately most New Zealanders won't be aware of the problem of organised crime, but they will see the symptoms of it."The methamphetamine use, particularly in our rural communities, [which] is decimating some of our rural communities. The advent of the fraud that is spreading. One in 10 New Zealanders are the victim of fraud and that number is escalating.""And there'll be touch points that the public are not aware of, where they are interacting with people who are exploited migrants who have been exploited by organised crime," says Symon."We will see new and emerging threats through organised crime, such as a black market in tobacco which has been, escalating in New Zealand. And these things are growing and becoming more complex. What we're also seeing is organised crime working in more nefarious ways. So working on corrupting individuals, corrupting New Zealanders going about doing their work to try and maximise the return they can get from their crime.""Organised crime is working more and more like large commercial enterprises. So when you think of large companies and how they spend their energy on facilitating and maximising the return that they can get for their investors, it's the same logic you should apply to organised crime," says Symon.In the podcast audiohe also talks about the challenge of cash "the primary currency of organised crime" and the recommendation to stop cash payments in certain industries, why the Advisory Group recommends a dedicated Transnational, Serious and Organised Crime Minister, funding the fight against organised crime, why more is needed from Inland Revenue, working across government agencies, the role of the private sector, cryptocurrency, the need for international cooperation and more.Just before Christmas Associate Police Minister Casey Costello unveiled a new all-of-government strategy to tackle organised crime. Costello released this strategy document, and this action plan. Details on the Ministerial Advisory Group and all its reports can be found here.*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.

US data mixed as risk aversion rises. Singapore & Sweden hold rates. EU sentiment rises, inflation expectations dip. Air travel & cargo buoyant.

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets now expect an Australian rate rise next week. But first today, the US Fed held its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%. This is what markets expected from them, despite the Trump pressure to cut sharply. The vote was 10-2 with the dissenters working to curry favour with Trump to get the nod as the next Fed chairman. The FOMC indicated that rates at this level could hold for some time while household inflation stress remains elevated. Inflation with no growth (other than AI) is a hard position to extract yourself from. They also have their eye on the labour market, with some large layoff announcements in the past few days. Both UPS (-30,000) and Amazon (-16,000) have announced big cuts, less about seasonal changes, more about 'efficiency'. They aren't the only ones pulling back. American mortgage applications fell last week as mortgage interest rates rose. Refinance activity fell more than -16%, while new home purchase mortgages were little-changed. This may not be a trend change, rather just a breather, because the prior three weeks rose notably. However, this metric is in a clear yoyo pattern. Canada's central bank also held its policy rate at 2.25% in its overnight decision. New bully threats from the US are keeping their growth outlook quite uncertain but they still see inflation holding at about 2% (currently 2.4%), and they still see an economic expansion at about +1.5%. India's industrial production accelerated in December, up +7.9% from the same month a year ago to end its full year up +4.1% from 2024. Factory production was up +8.1%, with the weak sector being mining. The December expansion was its sharpest since October 2023. In Australia, inflation was reported rising 3.8%, far above the November 3.4% and also above the expected 3.6% level. After the strong December labour market data released earlier in the month, this will put heavy pressure on the RBA to act to prevent inflation impulses and inflation expectations from requiring even tougher medicine in the future. Growth hotspots Brisbane and Perth both reported even higher inflation rates. Even Sydney reported 3.7% December inflation. The RBNZ will be looking at this evolving situation with some alarm, given that we too have above-target inflation, even without the growth pressures. Separately, the Chinese ambassador to Australia has said that Beijing will step in if Australian moves to regain control of the Darwin port that was leased to Chinese interests in 2015 on a 99-year lease basis. He said China “has the obligation to take measures” to protect their rights over the port. That may include trade retaliation, and more Chinese navy circumnavigations including live-fire exercises in the Tasman. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$5289/oz, up a sharp +US$202 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver is up +US$7 to US$114/oz, also a record. Platinum has recovered and now at US$2645, but not back to Monday's spectacular record. We should also note that the aluminium price has risen sharply overnight - again. It is now back approaching its pandemic-frenzy levels. American oil prices are up another +US$1 at just under US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is also higher, now just under US$68/bbl. These are four month highs. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday, now at 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.8, and up +10 bps from yesterday, its highest since late September. The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,425 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.