Economy Watch

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news this week we may start to see some hard data from the US and how the Trump insurgency is affecting the world's largest economy. Already sentiment surveys seem pretty negative.For us, the week ahead will be dominated by the March quarter financial system data releases from the RBNZ on Wednesday.Internationally, we will remain trapped watching the chaotic policy changes from Washington and trying to assess how they may impact us. Wall Street's earning season releases will also be a big influence, especially results from Big Tech. And the Americans will release their Q1-2025 GDP results, PCE inflation data, and their ISM PMI survey results. And at the end of the week we will get the April non-farm payroll results for the US labour market.The Bank of Japan is scheduled to review its monetary policy, but they are unlikely to make any changes in the fog of uncertainty around trade policies. Australia will release its Q1-2025 CPI data (expect a dip to 2.2%). China will release its official PMI survey results.Over the weekend, China said its March industrial profits were better than expected, but private sector profits slipped again. However, overall profits rose +0.8% from a year ago. Also better were foreign company profits which were up +2.8% on the same basis.China said they are adding another ¥500 bln in medium-term lending facility funding. This is the second month they have pushed out substantial additional liquidity in this way.And China says more than 120 million people have benefited from their old-for-new consumer goods trade-in subsidy program, driving sales of more than ¥720 bln.And the BS meter is on high after Trump said that “we’re meeting with China” on tariffs, comments aimed at soothing jittery financial markets. But Chinese officials say no talks have taken place.In fact, China cancelled some large pork and soybean orders to US suppliers. American farmers not only have to bear the brunt of trade policy gone rogue, they are also battling rouge weather.Singapore said its industrial production rose in March, a bounce-back from a weak February result. But the recovery wasn't as strong as analysts had expected.Across the Pacific, US initial jobless claims fell last week to +209,700 and to the level expected. But seasonal effects suggested this reduction should have been larger. There are now 1.89 mln people on these benefits, still higher than year ago levels. This is despite Federal pressure on States to deny long term undocumented workers access to benefits.New durable goods orders jumped in March by +10.9%, the largest rise in seven months. Capital goods orders rose +24.1%. But non-defense, non-aircraft capital goods orders were only up +1.8%. This is probably why the March or April PMIs didn't note a general rise in factory orders.US existing-home sales fell -5.9% in March from February to be -2.4% lower than one year ago.Meanwhile the Kansas City Fed factory survey reported lower activity, higher costs, and unchanged order levels.Nationally, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index reported a small slip in March. This is consistent with the overall Fed Beige Book monitoring.And finally for the US, the UofM sentiment survey for April was -8.4% lower than for March, -32% weaker than a year ago. These are big drops. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% in March, an unusually high level, to 6.5% this month, the highest reading since 1981.North of the border, Canada reported February retail sales and they slipped from January to be +2.1% ahead of year ago levels. This data is volume data, so a real increase.And its election day in Canada (tonight NZ time). There has been a notable surge in early voting. Official data for this was released a week ago, and that showed 7.3 million electors had voted in advance at that stage. This is a +25% increase from the 5.8 million electors who voted in advance in the last federal general election in 2021. They have 27.6 mln eligible voters this time.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3318/oz, and up +US$88 from Saturday.Oil prices have held from Saturday be still just over US$63/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc, down -10 bps from Saturday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just on 68 and unchanged from Thursday, but up +40 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,238 and down -0.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/- 0.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that as tariffs kick in, the US gets higher prices and lower activity. The White House is signaling it wants to pull back from its bluster (whiff of panic?), although China is yet to respond.But first in the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week to be just +6% above the weak week a year ago. Benchmark interest rates rose, which seems to have choked off new purchase borrowers, and refinance borrowers.Sales of new single-family homes rose +6.0% in March from a year ago at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 724,000 and the highest in six months, and much better than market expectations of 680,000 homes. But to be fair this latest level is still within the range it has been for the past 27 months. They still have unsold inventories of over 8 months of sales at the current rate, which is a lot for builders to carry.The latest US Treasury bond auction, for the key 5yr Note, was well supported but delivered a yield of 3.93%, down from 4.04% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. This is the maturity that foreign institutions prefer so is a good indicator of foreign support of US debt instruments. More than a quarter of all US Treasury debt is owned by foreigners, more than a third in the 2-5 year maturities. If we see a pullback, it will be in these auctions, and evidenced by rising yields.The S&P/Markit US Manufacturing PMI rose marginally in April from March to a small expansion, better than the market expectations of a small contraction. Although growth was modest, this marked the fourth consecutive month of expansion in factory activity. Meanwhile, the equivalent services PMI fell sharply to a two month low. There are warning signs here. Prices charged for goods and services rose in this latest month at the sharpest pace for 13 months, increasing especially steeply in manufacturing (where the rate of inflation hit a 29-month high) but also picking up further pace in services (where the rate of inflation struck a seven-month high). More generally, sentiment fell among the surveyed companies.The US Fed's April Beige Book is out and it is picking up similar themes; lower sentiment, stuttering demand, and rising prices. They are more muted in the Beige Book surveys, but they are still being noted.There were 'flash' PMIs out for other countries overnight too. The EU factory PMI contracted its least in 27 months, but their services PMI retreated a bit more. In India, both of their PMIs stayed very expansionary. In Japan, there was a "return to growth" in April. In Australia, the new order components are rising but most other aspects are not. Election uncertainty may be playing a role here.In China, they said they will issue ¥1.3 tln (NZ$300 bln) in ultra-long-term special government bonds starting today (Thursday). Some of that liquidity will be used to fund consumption incentives as they try to speed their shift away from export dependency.Coal prices hit a four year low yesterday as warm autumn weather in Asia, and lower industrial demand is being swamped by high output. Prices are now back to where they were in 2016. Rising supply and stunted demand is having the same price impact on oil.Global financial stability regulators are increasingly worried about the resilience of the financial sector, and have issued a warning about the consequences of dodgy and capricious public policy.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.38%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3282/oz, and down -US$116 from yesterday.Oil prices have fallen -US$2.50 from yesterday to be now just over US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc, down another -20 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we up +30 bps at just on 52.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just at 68 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,933 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And because tomorrow is the Anzac Day holiday, we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news reality and expectations seem to be diverging.But first up today we can report that the weekly dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought little-change in the WMP price from the previous full GDT auction in USD, while the SMP price rose +3.0% on that same basis, but basically a recovery. However things are reversed in NZD due to the weaker greenback, with the WMP price falling -1.4% and the SMP price only up +1.7% in our currency.Internationally, the IMF warned that rising US tariffs are marking the start of a new global era of slower growth. Since January, sweeping import duties and retaliation are raising trade barriers to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to +2.8% from +3.3%, and sees continued weakness through 2026. The US will be among the hardest hit, with 2025 growth cut to +1.8% from +2.7%. Others like Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU will feel some effects but are likely to be minor compared to the US.Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary has told a private meeting the tariff war is unsustainable and will ease 'soon'. News of these remarks has led to a financial market rally. The problem remains however as neither Trump or China show any signs of backing down, and Bessent himself admitted that talks to de-escalate haven't even started. Markets might be getting ahead of themselves, as is Bessent.In the US, the Redbook retail impulse monitor was up +7.4% last week from the same week a year ago, the highest since the end of 2022. But this is becoming more of a measure of inflation than real sales activity as the tariff-taxes get passed through.The Richmond Fed's factory survey for the mid-Atlantic states reported weak results. It plummeted to -13 in April from -4 in the previous month, and well below market expectations. It is the sharpest decline in factory activity since November. Meanwhile their service sector gauge fell too.The latest and large US Treasury bond auction saw less support, but more than sufficient. However the median yield fell back to 3.74%, compared to the 3.94% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Canadian producer prices rose +4.7% in the year to March, but they are rising at a quicker pace in recent months. Canada is in its final week of election campaigning.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders rose to the elevated level of US$53 bln in March, but they have been doing this for so long now that the year-on-year gain isn't special for them, 'only' up +12.5%.In the EU, consumer sentiment fell more than expected in April to its lowest level since November 2023.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, a -1 bp dip from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3398/oz, and down -US$19 from yesterday.Oil prices have risen +US$1 from yesterday to be now just under US$64/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.8 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps at just on 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 68 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,488 and up +5.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that gold is rising, being the 'last man standing' as a perceived safe-haven asset. And American bond funds are having a moment, a negative one. Outflows are continuing, building selling pressure at the rate of about US$10 bln per week and have done so for the past five weeks now.The position of the US dollar and US Treasuries are being directly undermined by the US president. He and his advisers have been raging about the role of the Fed boss. If he tries to remove him, expect a larger market reaction, especially from the bond market. But so far it is all bluster.But first, it will be a short, truncated week post-Easter with just three business days until Frida's ANZAC Day holiday. Our March export results are one of the few data releases. We will also get an update this week from the RBNZ's six-monthly credit condition survey.Internationally, we will get the start of the March 'flash' PMIs for April. Wall Street will continue with its early earnings season results, dominated this week by big tech. US durable goods orders for March, and confidence survey results for April are also due for release this week.Over the weekend China left its key lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month in April. After that, the yuan rose as did the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. Expectations for a reserve ratio cut to boosrt bank liquidity are mounting there.China ramped up its budget spending in the first quarter at the fastest pace since 2022, allocating nearly 22% of planned outlays to counter weakening foreign demand amid an ongoing tariff war. The move is part of a broader strategy to boost domestic demand and support industries hit by trade tensions.Earlier they said foreign direct investment into the country is struggling again. In January it was down -14% from a year ago to ¥13.4 bln in the month. It rose to ¥16.6 bln in February. a +16% year-on-year gain. But it March it was only ¥6.9 bln, a -45% drop from from the same month a year ago. China prefers to look at this data "year-to-date" but that masks the current weakness.Japanese CPI inflation stayed high in March although it did slip to 3.6%, and the second consecutive decrease and the lowest of 2025.Across the Pacific, the US dollar has fallen to a three year low. Sentiment is being undermined by the Trump attacks on the US Fed. And it seems pretty clear that the US in now in a tariff-tax recession. Not only is the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow signaling a -2.2% economic contraction, the blue chip 'consensus' forecasts are now showing up with contraction forecasts too. And the spread into investors funds is happening rather quickly now. 90 of the top 100 best-performing exchange-traded funds of last year are down in 2025, with an average loss of -13%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.American new housing starts unexpectedly dropped -11.4% in March from February to an annualised rate of 1.324 mln, the lowest level in four months and virtually the same as the same month a year ago. But the expectation is that these will fall from here as new-builds get much more expensive from the tariff-tax effect.US initial jobless claims came in at 220,000 last week, an increase although less of an increase than seasonal factors would have anticipated. But that puts them +5.1% higher than year-ago levels.Diving even more is the Philly Fed's factory survey in the heartland Pennsylvania manufacturing rust belt. This is the icon region the tariff-taxes are supposed to save. But they aren't feeling any benefit - although hardly surprising to everyone but MAGA zealots. New orders dropped to pandemic levels, and apart from the pandemic, the overall sentiment has seen its fastest and steepest drop since these survey records started in the 1970s.In Canada, they are a week away from their federal election (Monday, April 28, 2025 Canadian time). The polls are tightening but the incumbent Liberal Party still holds a comfortable lead over the Conservatives. Likewise in Australia, their federal election is in the week after that. Polls there also show a comfortable lead for the incumbent Labor Party. In both cases, the conservative forces are undermined by the toxic Trump effect. But on the other side, the Labor Party is wavering in some key heartland Sydney seats, hurt by "the Gaza issue".In Europe, they are in a better position to cut interest rates because they also don't have the inflation pressures the US has. And they have. The European Central Bank cut its policy interest rates by -25 bps on Thursday, as expected, marking the sixth consecutive cut since June and bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. They say their disinflation process is progressing well and they have now dropped previous references to a "restrictive" policy stance. They also say that their growth outlook has worsened from the escalating trade tensions.On Thursday, Australia released its March labour market data and there was a good +33,000 rise in new jobs, bouncing back from the February drop. The March data saw the increase evenly split from an increase in full-time jobs and part-time jobs. Their jobless rate unchanged stayed at 4.2%. There are +308,000 more people employed in Australia over the past year, a rise of +2.2%. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.40%, up +7 bps from this time Saturday. Wall Street is taking it on the chin in its Monday session, down a very sharpish -3.1% on the S&P500, and staying down. The Nasdaq is down -3.6%, the Dow down -3.3%, so a broad retreat. The price of gold will start today at US$3417/oz, and up +US$90 from Saturday.Oil prices have fallen (in USD), down -US$1.50 from Saturday to be now just over US$63/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc, up +60 bps from Saturday at this time and its highest in six months. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at just on 52.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 68 and its highest since mid December.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,811 and up +2.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news gold has taken off, hitting yet another new all-time record high as fear stalks markets today and risk is definitely 'off'. But the NZD is rising. As we publish, markets are moving quickly so this snapshot will date just as quickly.But first in the US, mortgage applications fell -8.0% last week from the same week a year ago, with the refinance component down a rather sharp -12% on the same basis. These retreats came as benchmark mortgage rates rose +20 bps from a week agoA rush to buy cars ahead of the April tariff taxes delivered a boost to March retail sales that was even more than expected. Without those car sales, March retail was barely improved, and that does not adjust for price inflation so in volume terms, core retail sales are declining now. That trend will have global implications.American industrial production rose +1.3% from a year ago and this does adjust for price changes, so a small improvement. But it did shrink in March compared to February.Sentiment by American house builders was little-changed in March from February, but it is -21% lower than a year ago, and -13% lower than two years ago. In fact, excluding the pandemic, you have to go back to the GFC to find it this poor in a March month. That is not good because it is the start of their Spring selling season. Survey results show that tariff taxes are not being paid by importing countries, rather by the builders at this stage. As profits dive, that will be passed on to buyers next.There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today and demand was slightly lower so the median yield rose to 4.75%. That is a rise from the 4.59% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Fed boss Powell was talking earlier today, saying that tariffs pose a real challenge to meet their dual inflation+jobs mandates. Inflation pressures are here now which argues for rate settings to rise, while economic growth is expected to leak away soon hurting jobs, arguing for a rate cut. He said they will "wait for greater clarity" to see where the dominant pressure comes from.These comments were not the magical thinking equity markets wanted to hear, and the realities of what faces the US economy has seen Wall Street pull back today. The Nasdaq is down -3.9%, the S&P500 down -2.8%. The Dow is down -1.8%. Gold is the safe-haven parking lot.In Canada, they are also waiting. Rather than continue with their rate cut track, the Bank of Canada has paused that track, keeping its policy rate at 2.75% as they too watch inflation rise and economic activity leak away. Interestingly, the TSX is only down -0.3%, hit far less than Wall Street.Across the Pacific, Japan's February machinery orders rebounded sharply, rising well above market expectations for a modest +0.8% increase to its highest level in a year. Manufacturing orders rose +3%, while non-manufacturing orders jumped +11.4%. This rise matches the separate machine tool order data for March which was also up sharply. And these first see prosperity ahead; The Reuters Tankan sentiment index rose sharply in April. But the same firms surveyed were gloomy for the months further out in 2025.China claimed its economy grew at a +5.4% rate in Q1-2025 (real), the same rate as for Q4-2024. They said retail sales were up +5.9% (nominal) in March from a year ago, better than the +4.0% in February and the best rise since December 2023 which benefited from a low base. They also said industrial production was up +7.7% (nominal) in March, far better than the +5.6% expected and far better than the +5.9% February gain. Electricity production was only up +1.8% (real) year on year in March, so either they are making spectacular energy efficiency gains, or something other than electricity powers their industry, or something doesn't add up. Anecdotal reports from many regions don't paint quite the picture these official stats paint.Meanwhile, Chinese new home prices in March edged lower from February, but there are range of changes in the 70 top Chinese cities. Still only Shanghai shows a year-on-year gain. Among the same cities, none show any gain for resales of existing houses and some declines are now as much as -11% (Jinhua, 7 mln population, and Tangshan, 7.7 mln).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, down another -6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today sharply higher at a new record of US$3337/oz, and up +US$108 from yesterday or +3.3%.Oil prices have firmed marginally, up +50 USc from yesterday to be now just over US$62/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.3 USc, up +20 bps from yesterday at this time and still the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD embeds. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -40 bps from yesterday at just on 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 67.6 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,854 and holding again, down less than -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. This podcast will take a break over the Easter holiday weekend and we will do this again Tuesday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the gears of the global economy are grinding disconcertingly as the unnecessary trade war is prosecuted with little strategy and no apparent viable end game.But first up today, the latest full dairy auction brought an overall rise of +1.6% in USD. However, the fall and fall of the USD has completely undermined this result, with prices in NZD falling -2.1%. In USD all categories except SMP rose, and demand was strong from "North Asia" (ie China). Milk fats were in demand, while global milk supply is waning in the major producers, underpinning the demand. Pity about the currency effect.Inflation is showing up in the retail trade in the US, with the weekly Redbook index up +6.6% from the same week a year ago. There is no way that reflects a volume riseBusiness activity continued to fall in March in the New York Fed's factory survey in the New York state. New order levels extended their decline/In Canada, their CPI inflation rate eased lower to 2.3% in March. That is after the eight-month high of 2.6% in February. The March result was tamer than expected (2.6%) and below forecasts by the central bank of 2.5%. It comes after some GST and other tax changes earlier have now been flushed through their data. The Bank of Canada next meets to review its official policy rate later today, but it will be the economic impact of their unfriendly neighbour that will dominate policy, rather than current inflation. They will likely hold off making rate changes for now, keeping the 2.75% policy rate. That is a change from the earlier expected cut.Canadian housing starts came in weak in March, down more than -11% from the same month a year ago.India CPI inflation rate fell in March to 3.3%, its lowest since 2019. Food price inflation fell to 2.7%. Both were much lower than expected and well below the central bank's policy rate mid point of 4%.Indian exports rose sharply in March from February in the normal seasonal pattern. Their imports rose even more so their trade deficit grew from the prior month, although only back to its usual level.In China, they are cancelling their orders for Boeing aircraft, a blow to the US aircraft industry.In February, EU industrial production rose, a surprise gain and the best monthly gain in two years.But that wasn't an indicator for economic sentiment. The latest ZEW survey reveals a sharp deterioration as they watched the US turn away from friend to foe, making them feel boxed in between the US and Russia. It was a shift reminiscent of the uncertainty during the pandemic.And it seems that trade talks between the US and the EU are making "litte" (ir no) progress.In Australia, the latest release of the RBA minutes was a dull affair, giving little guidance on how they are going to deal with the trade and inflation challenges. It's all 'wait-and-see' and 'respond-to-data' for them. But they do claim to be in a good position to be able to act decisively if it is needed. A cut on May 20 is still possible however.OPEC's latest monthly review lowered its demand outlook, although some observers thought the smallness of the cutback was brave in the circumstances.And we should also note that there are now three elections due soon. Canada goes to the polls on April 28. Australia votes on May 3. And now a snap election has also been called in Singapore, also for May 3. Being Singapore, that unsurprisingly leaves very little time for campaigning. All these elections will have the Trump shadow hanging over them, and it very much helps campaigning to present an anti-Trump stance. Trump has resurrected the fortunes of the centre-left candidates, enough to cancel the anti-incumbent mood.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, down another -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3229/oz, and up +US$16 from yesterday.Oil prices have firmed marginally, up +50 USc from yesterday to be now at US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.1 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday at this time and the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD extends. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we up +30 bps from yesterday at just on 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 67.6 and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US84,616 and holding again, up a mere +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the week started with a strong risk-on mood and equities rose on Monday in Asia, and especially in Europe. Wall Street opened with the same vibe, but lost momentum in the middle sessions, although it is returning in the later session. It's volatile.But first in main street US, the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey mirrored the other recent sentiment surveys, noting a defensive turn in the mood. Consumers’ year-ahead expectations about their households’ financial situations deteriorated in March, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now rising to 30%, the highest level since October 2023. Those surveyed said they see higher inflation in a year, up to 3.6% from 3.0% in the February survey. The expectations for earnings growth fell, and for joblessness to rise. Of course, this one was taken before the heavy tariff policies hit in early April. The April update will be available on May 9 (NZT).In Washington, the Trump administration is moving swiftly to end enforcement of white collar crime, dismissing federal prosecutors involved in enforcing foreign bribery cases, crypto crime, and money laundering crime. Its open season for white collar criminals. Washington is also apparently open for far-right Russians.It is so risky to visit the US, EU diplomats are now being issued with burner phones for their visits, just like they do when visiting China or Russia.On the tariff front, exemptions are coming for car parts, new tariffs for pharmaceuticals. The common thread is bolstering profits for campaign supporters. Need a favour? Go to Washington with money for Trump.In Canada, their central bank is about to review its monetary policy settings. It was on a rate cutting track, but is now more likely to leave its policy rate unchanged given the inflationary threats from the trade war.In China, their exports surged by +12.4% in March to US$314 bln, far above market forecasts of +4.4% rose and accelerating sharply from a +2.3% rise in the January–February period. It marked the fastest increase in overseas sales since last October, driven by the urgent frontloading before the American tariffs took effect. Since November when talk of tariffs first became a credible risk, the rise of Chinese exports has been exceptional. Meanwhile, March imports fell -4.3%. As a consequence, China's merchandise trade surplus has hit record levels in 2025.We exported +13% more to them in Q1-2025 from a year ago, and imported -5% less. Australia exported -29% less, and imported -5% less, for comparison.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.37%, down -13 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3213/oz, and down -US$23 from yesterday.Oil prices have dipped -50 USc from yesterday to be now at US$61/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.8 USc, up +½c from yesterday at this time and the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD extends. Against the Aussie we are up another +20 bps at 93 AUc. Against the euro we up +60 bps from yesterday at just on 51.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 67.3 and up +40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,546 and holding, and down a mere -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news things are turning sour in the trenches of the US economy - for consumers, many non-prime corporate borrowers, and even investors in some local manufacturing they did at the behest of Trump.But first in the week ahead our news will be dominated by the March quarter CPI release on Wednesday. Japan, India and the UK will also release inflation updates this week. The central banks of Canada, the ECB, Turkey and Korea will be re-assessing their monetary policy settings, and obviously they will focused on how the global tariff war by the US will affect them, and the role monetary policy can play to mitigate the coming negative influences.China will report its Q1-2025 GDP result, and Germany will report any changes in economic sentiment.On Wall Street, the Q1-2025 earnings season will kick off and reports from the major financial institutions will come in early. There will be a lot of attention on them, especially if they start to report a bumpy ride from the economic uncertainty.However, the big news over the weekend is that China is standing its ground. Beijing raised tariffs on American imports to 125% on Friday, hitting back against Trump's decision to hike duties on Chinese goods to 145%, and raising the stakes in the trade war. They repeated the "fight to the end" rhetoric, also saying they will "counterattack". "Even if the US continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of world economy. At the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to China."On immediate consequence of all this is that investors are turning away from the US dollar as a safe haven. And perhaps turning away from US Treasuries too.Equity markets seem to be ignoring a sharp change in US consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan survey plunged in April to its lowest level since June 2022 and well below what was anticipated. That's the fourth straight month of pullback, and this survey is now more than 30% lower since the November 2024 election. It is signaling growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year.American consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labour markets all continued to deteriorate this month. The gauge for current economic conditions fell along with the component measuring expectations which is now at its lowest since May 1980. Meanwhile, year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, the highest reading since 1981, from 5% in March. The five-year inflation expectations gauge edged up to 4.4% from 4.1%.To mitigate some of that, Trump cancelled his tariffs as they affect mobile phones, their components, computers and other electronics. Even for Trump, this is pretty odd. It is now very much cheaper to import iPhones and the like from China than make them in the US. There will be many investors, especially those who have started building out US manufacturing facilities at the behest of Trump, who are likely to be a touch unhappy with this flip-flop and they still have to pay 145% tariffs on their imported parts. Clearly Trump has zero idea about how tariffs work, although that is not news. Commerce Secretary Lutnick added confusion in a weekend interview saying the tech tariff cancellation will be temporary.Meanwhile, March producer price inflation in the US actually eased to 2.7% its lowest in five months, aided by a sharp drop in energy costs. Without those fuel cost drops, the index would have risen slightly to 3.3%.There are signs that lending activity is tightening sharply in the US. For two weeks, there have been no - zero - high yield leverage loans for corporates in the US. The funds making these loans are having sharp investor outflows, and banks have become quite risk averse. A credit crunch is underway for most non-prime borrowers. If it extends, there will be real trouble.In Canada, not only are they rejecting American products and travel options now, a new trend is that they are net sellers of US real estate they had as holiday homes.India released February industrial production data over the weekend and that showed growth decelerated sharply to +2.9% from a year ago, down from an upwardly revised +5.2% in January. Markets had expected a +4.0% rise in February, so this is a big miss and is the weakest expansion since August.In China, their March new yuan loans came in at +¥3.6 tln, sharply higher than the +¥1.0 tln in February and slightly more than anticipated. New bank debt support is flowing as they intend, but to be fair it isn't overly different to the usual seasonal pattern. It is even less that the record March new-debt flows in March 2023 of +¥3.89 tln, but it is the second highest March level ever, and +17.8% more than March 2024. Foreign currency lending dived -34% however.China's vehicle sales jumped in March from February to 2.9 mln units, but the near-term change is distorted by the Chinese New Year holiday period. NEVs rose to 1.2 mln of those units, now 42% of all sales. They seem to be on target to sell almost 33 mln vehicles in 2025, almost double the level in the US.Meanwhile, State-linked Chinese funds (the 'home team') stepped in to rescue Chinese stocks last week. But it’s an expensive exercise, involving more than ¥7 tln so far and likely to have to go up much more than that. China's own credit crunch is coming at some point, but they can put it off a while yet.Separately, China is also battling unusually cold weather at present with much travel in the north cancelled.In Europe, German CPI inflationcame in at 2.2% in March (2.3% on an EU harmonised basis), slightly lower than in February, and lower than expected. Food prices were up +3.0% and the price of services were up +3.5%. It is also falling energy costs that are keeping a lid on their inflation.Coal and steel prices are falling, with the coal price now down to a level it first achieved in 2016.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.50%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3236/oz, and up another +US$2 from Saturday, and yet another new record high. That is up +US$217 or +7.1% from this time last week.Oil prices are unchanged from Saturday to be holding at US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$64.50/bbl. These are the same levels we had a week ago.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.3 USc, up +10 bps from Saturday at this time and the highest since mid-December. A week ago it was 55.6 USc so a mammoth +270 bps appreciation or +4.7%. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we down -10 bps from Saturday at just on 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just over 66.9 and up marginally from Saturday, up +130 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,792 and firming, and up +1.2% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news equity markets have cancelled yesterday's relief rally.But first in the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 215,000, +7.7% higher than the week before, but identical to the same week a year ago. There are now just under 2 mln people on these benefits, up slightly from the 1.93 mln a year ago.US CPI inflation fell to 2.4% in March, its lowest level since February 2021. Because this was data taken before the tariff chaos, it seems this may be the low point for the foreseeable future. Food was up +3.0% and rents were up +4.0%. Medical care was up +3.0%. However petrol prices restrained the overall rises, down -9.8%. Very low oil prices will keep a lid on the total even if other living costs rise much faster.Today's UST 30 yr bond auction was well supported, but the median yield came in at 4.73%, up from 4.56% at the equivalent event a month ago.The US government reported a budget deficit of -US$161 bln in March, a -32% decrease from the previous year, largely due to a calendar shift in benefit payments. Despite this monthly decline, the broader fiscal picture remains concerning, with the US Treasury reporting a -US$1.3 tln deficit for the first half of fiscal 2025, a +23% rise from the previous year. This marks the second highest deficit for the first six months of any fiscal year, trailing only the -US$1.7 tln gap in fiscal 2021. Tax cuts for the rich in this environment looks exceedingly irresponsible, especially if the tax rises on consumers via tariffs don't raise the outlandish sums forecasted.Just how damaged the US government agencies have become, Musk's DOGE fired all the safety regulators that oversaw Tesla.The April USDA WASDE report out overnight shows that US corn inventories are lower than expected. Beef exports are expected to fall on retaliatory tariff actions against the US and beef imports are expected to be lower too for the same tariff reason. The net result seen in lower prices for US producers. Lower prices for US milk producers too as exports shrink. US farmers will be net losers from the tariff hostilities.Across the Pacific, Japanese producer inflation is rising, now its highest since mid-2023. Producer prices there rose +4.2% in March from the same month a year ago, above market estimates of 3.9%. It was their 49th straight month of producer inflation, with cost rising further for most components.Taiwanese exports surged again in March, up +18.6% from a year ago and a record high for any month. A +8.5% rise was expected. That is two consecutive months of outsized expansion. April tariff actions may well affect this impressive result going forward, but if US customers have no alternative sources, the tariff taxes will fall on the buyer.In China, they not only have to fight off the US tariff policies, they have a resurgence of domestic deflation issues. Their March CPI fell -0.1% when a +0.1% was anticipated. Their PPI fell -2.5% when a -2.3% retreat was anticipated. On the consumer price front, food prices are -0.6% lower than a year ago, of which beef prices fell -10.8% and lamb -5.4%. Milk prices fell -1.7% on the same basis. They want to shift to a consumer-based society, but in the meantime their existing export sector is going to take major hits which will affect consumption, and there seems little upside to consumer demand in the current circumstances. Their "over-capacity" is going to expose them. You wonder if they have any more appetite for capitalism's "creative destruction" than Western economies, who have proven to have virtually none.And staying in China, Beijing's drive to turn its economy into a consumption-led one relies of Chinese consumers spending and buying. But the evidence is that they are as spooked by the trade war as anyone and have turned consumption-shy.In March Australian inflation expectations fell to 3.6%, a four year low. But in April they jumped back up to 4.2% underscoring the ongoing uncertainty surrounding their domestic economic outlook and inflation trajectory in the face of fallout from the tariff war. Given they have both a jobs, and an inflation mandate, the RBA is in for a tricky period ahead with its policy choices.Container freight rates rose +3% in the past week to be -23% lower than a year ago. Basically trans-Pacific rates firmed slightly while trans-Atlantic rates eased. Bulk freight rates fell a very sharp -21% in the past week to be -20% lower than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.40%, unchanged from this time yesterday.Wall Street is currently down -3.4% on the S&P500 in its Thursday trade as the tariff-pause relief rally runs out of puff in the face of realities and reverses. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3162/oz, and up another +US$92 from yesterday.Oil prices have fallen -US$2 from yesterday to be just under US$60/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc, up +120 bps from yesterday at this time and a three week high. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 66.5 and up +70 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,207 and falling, and down -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that past notions of safe havens have been upended, and now it is the turn of the bond market to be roiled. The cost of long-term money is rising sharply as risk premiums leap.First, China has reacted in equal measure to Trump's capricious 104% tariffs on their goods, with their own extras, a 50% retaliatory tariff. The predictions any junior could see from the known Smoot-Hawley tit-for-tat protectionism are playing out.The first to blink hasn't been the Chinese. Trump has made an about-turn and paused higher reciprocal tariffs "for 90 days" that hit dozens of trade partners just after they became effective, while raising duties on China further to 125%. This u-turn surprised markets which is having an emotional relief reaction. But any gains today will be built on sand.So we are in a period of unmoored 'policy', with all the impacts ahead of us. History tells us this doesn't end well, for anybody including us.American homeowners know what's coming, and are rushing to fix their mortgage rates before they rise unaffordably. There was a sharp +20% rise in mortgage applications last week from the week prior, with the refinance component up an eye-popping +35% and almost double the level of a year ago. Borrowers sense they may not see rates this low again for a long time.Meanwhile, at the other end of the interest rate market, US Treasury yields are leaping, which means prices are dropping and holders are taking large losses. Today's US Treasury 10 year bond auction was well supported but at notably higher yields. Today the median yield was 4.34% whereas at the prior equivalent event a month ago it was 4.27%. This is a market where participants have regulatory obligations to buy.But in the open secondary market, the effects are starker. The UST 10 year yield rose +16 bps just from yesterday. (from a month ago, up +11 bps). Volatility is a new feature of these bond markets too.There was some US wholesale inventory data out overnight, but it was for February, and these were up just +1.1% from a year ago. But of course this was from a period well before the April omnishambles.Also out today were the US Fed minutes from their March 20 (NZT) meeting, but the views in these have all been overtaken by subsequent events, so have little current relevance. But even back then they sensed threats to inflation from Washington's tariffs, with heightened concerns about stagflation.In Japan, machine tool orders jumped sharply in March driven by export orders. They were up +11.4% year-on-year for the sixth consecutive month. Domestic demand remained stableIn India, and as expected, their central bank cut its policy interest rate by -25 bps to 6.00%. They cited easing inflation, slowing economic output, and growing global trade tensions as the reasons why they cut for a second successive time.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.40%, up +16 bps from this time yesterday. Risk premiums are growing.Wall Street is currently up +7.4% on the S&P500 in its Wednesday trade as the tariff-pause relief rally kicks in. Who knows where it will end today. The price of gold will start today at just under US$3070/oz, and up +US$91 from yesterday. Perhaps this is one commodity exhibiting traditional safe-haven attributes.Oil prices have risen +US$2 from yesterday at just on US$62/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.2 USc, up +70 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -80 bps at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we up +30 bps from yesterday at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 65.8 and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,930 and rising, and up +6.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.