The Horn

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Moses Chrispus Okello, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Security Studies, to unpack the common forces driving instability across the Horn of Africa and where the region might be headed. They discuss how today’s crises across the Horn of Africa are rooted primarily in domestic politics, even as they are increasingly shaped and intensified by outside powers competing for influence as the region becomes more entangled in Red Sea geopolitics. They examine Ethiopia’s central place in the region, how its push for sea access is raising tensions with neighbours and the prospects for wider regional realignments. Finally, they explore what stabilisation might require, from reducing proxy competition to rebuilding regional diplomacy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by H. A. Hellyer, Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, to explore what’s behind the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the competing visions of regional order driving it. They examine where tensions have emerged most sharply, including in Yemen and Sudan, and what these flashpoints reveal about each country’s red lines and regional strategy. They look at how, despite the dispute, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are coordinating their response to Iran’s attacks on Gulf states following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. They also discuss what Saudi-UAE détente might look like, whether Riyadh and Abu Dhabi can manage their disagreements, including over Sudan, if they are unable to fully resolve them and how countries in the Horn of Africa can avoid being drawn into the rivalry. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively. For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and our Ethiopia-Eritrea page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Asher Lubotzky, senior research fellow at the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, explains Israel’s renewed focus on the Horn and Somaliland. He outlines motives for recognising Somaliland and links to Red Sea security. Short takes cover Israel’s historical ties in Africa, practical surveillance benefits, regional risks, and how Gulf rivalries may shape Israel’s role.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Kristof Titeca, professor at the Institute of Development Policy at the University of Antwerp, to talk about Uganda’s post-election landscape and the question of who might succeed President Yoweri Museveni after nearly four decades in power. They trace Museveni’s rise and unpack how he stabilised Uganda and managed to sustain his rule through patronage, coercion and increasingly personalised decision-making. They examine Uganda’s murky succession politics and Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is widely seen as the heir apparent and whose rapid military rise and provocative social media interventions have unsettled parts of the establishment. They also weigh various scenarios for a contested succession, whether Uganda’s state consolidation will hold after Museveni leaves, and the impact for the wider region. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Omar Mahmood and Shewit Woldemichael. He first speaks with Yasmine about what is behind the new public rupture between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen, how this links to diverging strategies and rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, and the risk of a new Gulf crisis. Alan then turns to Omar and Shewit to discuss spillover into Somalia, including the fallout around Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, and into Sudan, where Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back opposing sides in the war, and what further polarisation and external competition could mean for an already tumultuous Horn of Africa. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Michael Woldemariam, an expert on Ethiopian and Horn of Africa politics from the University of Maryland, delves into the tense relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea. He explores why, despite escalating rhetoric, war has not yet erupted. Michael highlights Ethiopia's aspirations for sea access and Eritrea's historical insecurities. He also dissects the impact of regional dynamics, including Saudi-UAE rivalry, and suggests practical measures to de-escalate tensions. Tune in for an insightful analysis of a complex geopolitical landscape!

Join leading scholar Alex de Waal and Comfort Ero, CEO of the International Crisis Group, as they delve into the complexities of Sudan's ongoing conflict. They discuss the staggering challenge of mediating peace amid eroded state authority and the influence of regional powers. The conversation reveals the humanitarian crisis's depth and highlights Sudanese resilience amidst adversity. They explore the intricate dynamics of international involvement, arms embargoes, and the necessity for localized peace efforts to foster stability amid chaos.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Heiko Nitzschke, Germany’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, to discuss whether and how Europe needs to adapt its approach towards the Horn of Africa. While Europe used to act in relative sync with the U.S. in Africa, this is increasingly less the case. Meanwhile, numerous other powers, mostly from the Middle East, are pursuing their own objectives. Amid all this, how does Europe avoid going it alone in the Horn of Africa region? And, amid these shifts, is Europe rethinking longstanding policy ideas around development, multilateralism and mediation?This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more, check out our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Julia Steers, investigations editor at Lighthouse Reports, about the large-scale atrocities that took place in Darfur’s El Fasher after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured the city from Sudan’s army last month. They retrace how the RSF’s seizure of El Fasher unfolded after months of siege and discuss what investigators have uncovered about the mass killings and widespread abuses that followed. They examine the scale and brutality of the attacks on civilians – many of them documented by the RSF themselves – and the ethnic pattern of the killings. They also explore the RSF’s motivations for the apparent coordinated and systematic mass killing, and how the group has responded to the reporting on these atrocities.For more, check out Lighthouse Reports’ publication “The Killing Fields of Al Fashir”, co-published with Sky News and Sudan War Monitor, our Hold Your Fire! episode “What Does the RSF’s Seizure of El Fasher Mean for Sudan’s War?” and our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.