The Long View

Our guest on the podcast today is Jill Schlesinger. Jill is a business analyst for CBS News and comments on the economy, investing, and personal finance for CBS television and radio programs. She also hosts the popular "Jill on Money" podcast and writes the nationally syndicated "Jill on Money" column for Tribune Media Services. Jill's first book, The Dumb Things Smart People Do With Their Money was published in 2019. She has received numerous awards over her career, including an Emmy Award for her work on CBS Sunday Morning. Jill is a certified financial planner and spent 14 years as the co-owner of and chief investment officer for an independent investment advisory firm. She began her career as a self-employed options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York following her graduation from Brown University.BackgroundBioJill on MoneyThe Dumb Things Smart People Do With Their Money: Thirteen Ways to Right Your Financial Wrongs, by Jill SchlesingerCurrent Market“Coronavirus: Emergency Reserves,” Jill on Money podcast, jillonmoney.com. “Jill on Money: ‘New Normal’ Raises Financial Questions,” by Jill Schlesinger, mercurynews.com, Aug. 24, 2020.“CBS News Business Analyst Jill Schlesinger Discusses Inflation and the Housing Market,” by Grace Segers, cbsnews.com, June 4, 2021.“How to Fight Inflation,” by Jill Schlesinger, jillonmoney.com. “Fall Housing: From Boiling Over to Just Hot,” by Jill Schlesinger, jillonmoney.com.“Inflation on Hot Housing,” Jill on Money podcast, jillonmoney.com, Jan. 13, 2022.“Real Estate Conundrum: No Houses,” by Jill Schlesinger, jillonmoney.com.Retirement“How to Avoid the Retirement Freak-Out,” by Jill Schlesinger, nextave.org, Feb. 14, 2019.“At 67, Is My 80/20 Portfolio Too Risky?” Jill on Money podcast, jillonmoney.com, Nov. 23, 2021. “Jill on Money: Thinking About Joining the Great Resignation?” by Jill Schlesinger, mercurynews.com, Aug. 16, 2021. “Should FINE Replace FIRE?” by Jill Schlesinger, jillonmoney.com. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest this week is Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy is the long-term investment strategist at his namesake firm, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., or GMO, which he cofounded in 1977. He serves on GMO's Asset Allocation Committee and board of directors. Prior to GMO, Jeremy was cofounder of Batterymarch Financial Management and before that was an economist at Royal Dutch Shell. He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield and his MBA from Harvard University. Jeremy is a member of the Academy of Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the U.K., and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy.BackgroundBio“10 Things You Didn’t Know About Jeremy Grantham,” by Allen Lee, moneyinc.com.BubblesThree-Sigma Limits Definition“Let the Wild Rumpus Begin,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Jan. 20, 2022.“‘Super Bubble’: Jeremy Grantham Says Historic Crash Has Begun,” by Clayton Jarvis, financialpost.com, Jan. 25, 2022.“Market ‘Superbubble’ Could Lead to 50% Plunge, Says Grantham,” by Lawrence Carrel, forbes.com, Jan. 26, 2022.“GMO’s Grantham: 7 Signs We’re in a Stock Collapse (And What to Do Now),” by Janet Levaux, thinkadvisor.com, Jan. 24, 2022.“Is the Plunge in the Nasdaq and Bitcoin the end of the ‘Superbubble’”? by John Cassidy, newyorker.com, Jan. 24, 2022.“The U.S. Is in One of the Greatest Bubbles in Financial History,” by Merryn Somerset Webb, moneyweek.com, Sept. 3, 2021.“Grantham Calls Meme Stocks ‘Biggest U.S. Fantasy Trip,’” Kriti Gupta and John Authers, Bloomberg.com, June 22, 2021.“Profiting From a Bubble in Growth Stocks,” by Jeremy Grantham, Simon Harris, Ben Inker, and Catherine LeGraw, gmo.com, March 25, 2021.“Nikkei Back Above 30,000 After More Than Three Decades,” by Hideyuki Sano, reuters.com, Feb. 14, 2021.“Waiting for the Last Dance,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Jan. 5, 2021.“COVID-19, Climate Change, and the Need for a New Marshall Plan,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Oct. 30, 2020.ForecastGMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: 4Q 2021“Why Are Stock Market Prices So High?” by Jeremy Grantham, GMO Quarterly Letter, gmo.com, 2017.“Loose Monetary Policy Is Today’s Biggest Market Risk,” by John Plender, ft.com, April 14, 2021.“An Investment Only a Mother Could Love: The Tactical Case,” by Jeremy Grantham and Lucas White, gmo.com, April 30, 2020. Innovation, Venture Capital, and Green Investing“Grantham Stumbles on $200m Profit After Spac Swoop on Battery Maker,” by Robin Wigglesworth and Eric Platt, ft.com, Dec. 7, 2020.Trillions: How a Band of Wall Street Renegades Invented the Index Fund and Changed Finance Forever, by Robin Wigglesworth.“You Can’t Fool All the People All the Time,” by Jeremy Grantham, jpm.pm-research.com, Winter 1986.“Green Investing May Be a Bubble, Jeremy Grantham Says, But He’s Doubling Down,” by Ben Steverman, fa-mag.com, Nov. 15, 2021.“Where Jeremy Grantham Expects to Be ‘Kicking Ass,’” by Christine Idzelis, institutionalinvestor.com, Feb. 13, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest this week is Dr. Andrew Lo. Dr. Lo is the Charles E. & Susan T. Harris Professor, a professor of finance, and the director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His current research spans five areas, including evolutionary models of investor behavior and adaptive markets, systemic risk, and financial regulation, among others. Dr. Lo has published extensively in academic journals and authored a number of books including In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, which he cowrote with Stephen Foerster. He has received numerous awards for his work and contributions to modern finance research throughout his career. He holds a bachelor's in economics from Yale University and an AM and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.BackgroundBioIn Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest, by Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. FoersterAdaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought, by Andrew W. LoHistory“Thirty Maidens of Geneva,” the Tontine Coffee-House, thetch.blog.com, Aug. 5, 2019.“Why 18th Century Swiss Bankers Bet on the Lives of Young Girls,” by Stephen Foerster, sfoerster-5338.medium.com, Sept. 2, 2021.John Maynard KeynesBenjamin GrahamHarry MarkowitzHarry MarkowitzModern Portfolio TheoryWhat Is a Gunslinger? William F. SharpeWilliam F. SharpeWhat Is the Sharpe Ratio?Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)“Keynes the Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis,” by David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, and Justin Foo, papers.ssrn.com, Sept. 26, 2013.Eugene F. FamaEugene FamaWhat Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis?“Algorithmic Models of Investor Behavior,” by Andrew Lo and Alexander Remorov, eqderivatives.com, 2021.“In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: Eugene Fama,” Interview with Andrew Lo and Eugene Fama, youtube.com, Dec. 15, 2016.“Why Artificial Intelligence May Not Be as Useful or as Challenging as Artificial Stupidity,” by Andrew Lo, hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu, July 1, 2019.John C. Bogle John Bogle Cost Matters HypothesisCharles D. EllisCharley EllisGreenwich Associates“Charley Ellis: Why Active Investing Is Still a Loser’s Game,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 27, 2020.Other“7 Principles to Help You Create Your Perfect Portfolio,” by Robert Powell, marketwatch.com, Nov. 10, 2021. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest this week is Michael Mauboussin. Michael is the head of consilient research at Counterpoint Global. Before joining Counterpoint Global in January 2020, Michael was director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management and prior to that held research leadership roles at Credit Suisse and Legg Mason Capital Management. Michael is the author of three books including The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing and is also coauthor with Alfred Rappaport of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. He has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing. Michael is also chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute. He received his bachelor's degree from Georgetown University.BackgroundBioThe Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, by Michael MauboussinExpectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns, by Michael Mauboussin and Alfred RappaportMore Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, by Michael MauboussinConsilienceConsilience: The Unity of Knowledge, by Edward O. Wilson“Charlie Munger’s System of Mental Models: How to Think Your Way to Success,” by Andrew McVagh, mymentalmodels.info.com, Aug. 7, 2018.“Increasing Returns and the New World of Business,” by W. Brian Arthur, harvardbusinessreview.com, July-August 1996.Santa Fe Institute“Why Foxes Make Better Decisions Than Hedgehogs,” by Kevin Sookocheff, sookocheff.com, July 15, 2021.Jonathan Baron, Professor, University of PennsylvaniaActive Fund Success“Turn and Face the Strange: Overcoming Barriers to Change in Sports and Investing,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Sept. 8, 2021.“Dispersion and Alpha Conversion: How Dispersion Creates the Opportunity to Express Skill,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, April 14, 2020.Fundamental Law of Active Management“The ‘Paradox of Skill’ Adds to Active Management Woes,” by Christine Idzelis, institutionalinvestor.com, Sept. 17, 2020.Triumph and Tragedy in Mudville: A Lifelong Passion for Baseball, by Stephen Jay Gould“Looking for Easy Games in Bonds,” by Michael Mauboussin, bluemountaincapital.com, April 16, 2019.“Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence From Taiwan,” by Brad Barber, Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, Berkeley.edu, May 2004.Expectations InvestingCreating Shareholder Value: A Guide for Managers and Investors, by Alfred Rappaport“Market-Expected Return on Investment: Bridging Accounting and Valuation,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanely.com, April 14, 2021.Security Analysis course taught by Michael Mauboussin at Columbia Business School“The Math of Value and Growth: Growth, Return on Capital, and the Discount Rate,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanely.com, June 9, 2020.“Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Aug. 4, 2020.“How the Parting of Two Market Forces Helped Spur the Equity Rally,” by Michael Mauboussin, ft.com, Feb. 8, 2021.Business Quality and Capital Allocation“Thoughts on Cost of Capital and Buffet’s $1 Test--Part 1,” by John Huber, sabercapitalmgt.com, Oct. 30, 2017.“Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)--Michael Mauboussin on Investment Concepts,” anthenarium.com.“Michael Mauboussin on Capital Allocation and Value Creation,” anthenarium.com, Nov. 29, 2019.“Chancellor: Tech Growth Comes at Irrational Price,” by Edward Chancellor, reuters.com, Sept. 9, 2021.“Categorizing for Clarity: Cash Flow Statement Adjustments to Improve Insight,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Oct. 6, 2021.Other and Recommended ReadingAswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance, Stern School of BusinessThe Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness, by Morgan HouselThe Warren Buffett Way, by Robert HagstromWarren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind, by Robert HagstromRicher, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Inventors Win in Markets and Life, by William Green Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Paula Pant, host of the popular Afford Anything podcast. She is also the founder of affordanything.com, a personal finance website. Paula is a frequent public speaker and is a leading voice in the “Financial Independence, Retire Early” movement, better known as FIRE. She is a graduate of the Honors Program at the University of Colorado at Boulder.BackgroundBioAfford AnythingAfford Anything podcastFIRE“Why the FIRE Movement Is Misunderstood,” by Paula Pant, affordanything.com, Oct. 17, 2018.The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America’s Wealthy, by Thomas Stanley and William Danko“Tanja Hester: The Pandemic Will Stoke Interest in Early Retirement,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 3, 2020.“The Great Resignation: Why More Americans Are Quitting Their Jobs Than Ever Before,” by Bill Whitaker, cbsnews.com, Jan. 9, 2022.“Ask Paula: FIRE Vs. FOMO—How Do You Balance Between These?” Afford Anything podcast, affordanything.com, Jan. 11, 2022.“The FIRE Take on Wall St. Bets, GameStop, and Meme Stonks,” by Paula Pant, affordanything.com, Jan. 29, 2021.Mindful Spending “Your Money Should Make Buckets of Excess Money,” by Paula Pant, affordanything.com, Feb. 25, 2011.“Ramit Sethi: How Can Couples Make Peace Over Money?” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Nov. 30, 2021.Advice and Investing“Income Producing Properties With Paula Pant of Afford Anything,” Martinis and Your Money podcast, martinisandyourmoney.com, Sept. 10, 2021.“Ask Paula: How to Make Smarter Real Estate Decisions,” Afford Anything podcast, affordanything.com, Oct. 4, 2021.“Why Index Funds Are a Good Investment--With Paula Pant,” Marriage, Kids, and Money podcast, marriagekidsandmoney.com, Oct. 5, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest today is Cullen Roche. Cullen is the founder and chief investment officer of the Discipline Funds. In addition, Cullen heads up Orcam Group, a registered investment advisory firm he established in 2012. Cullen also authors the popular blog "Pragmatic Capitalism," where he writes about a range of macroeconomic and investing topics. He is active on social media, including Twitter, where you can find him at @cullenroche. Cullen started his career as an advisor at Merrill Lynch and did a stint at an event-driven hedge fund before starting his RIA firm. He received his bachelor's degree in finance from Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business..BackgroundBioPragmatic Capitalism BlogPragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance, by Cullen RocheMacroeconomics and Financial Planning/Advice“Three Things I Think I Think—Macro Thoughts,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Aug. 3, 2021.The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness, by Morgan Housel“The Most Important Investment Factor—Behavior,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, April 6, 2018.“What Is the Value of Financial Advice?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 18, 2019.“Understanding Quantitative Easing,” by Cullen Roche, papers.ssrn.com, Feb. 10, 2014.“2 Reasons the Surging Deficit Worries Me,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 26, 2018.Economic Cycle and Fiscal Picture@jasonzweigwsj“Three Things I Think I Think: Cycles, Hunting Biden and Life,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Oct. 15, 2020.“Three Things I Think I Think: Housing Bubble 2.0, Passive Investing and Hyperinflation,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, April 8, 2021.“Should House Prices Be in the CPI?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Aug. 24, 2021.“Understanding Government Liabilities,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, March 28, 2021.Inflation and Interest Rates“Let’s Talk About Inflation,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, May 12, 2021.“Is Hyperinflation Coming?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Oct. 25, 2021.“Three Things I Think I Think—Myths That Never Die,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Oct. 5, 2021.“Government Bond Markets Aren’t ‘Free’ Markets,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Oct. 8, 2020.“What if It’s all Going to Zero?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Nov. 9, 2021.“Why Stocks and Bonds Are the Core of any Portfolio,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, March 16, 2021.Discipline Fund ETF“Introducing the Discipline Fund ETF,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 21, 2021.“John Bogle: How to Create Perfect Asset Allocation,” video interview, youtube.com, June 24, 2018.Discipline Fund ETF OverviewWesley Gray“What Is Discipline-Based Investing?” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Jan. 1, 2019.Target-Date Funds“The Zoom Climb Glide Path & Why the Age in Bonds Rule Is Wrong,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 30, 2021. “The Portfolio Size Effect and Using a Bond Tent to Navigate the Retirement Danger Zone,” by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, Oct. 5, 2016.“Three Things I Think I Think—Dangerous & Terrible Stuff,” by Cullen Roche, pragcap.com, Sept. 29, 2021. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On this week’s episode, we’ll feature some of our favorite clips from interviews we’ve done with investment managers, writers, and thinkers over the past year. Here are the complete episodes that are referenced in this week’s episode. “David Giroux: What Are the Market Inefficiencies We Can Exploit?” The Long View podcast, Feb. 2, 2021.  “Hamish Douglass: On the Hunt for Super-Compounding Stocks,” The Long View podcast, Feb. 23, 2021.  “John Rogers, Jr.: ‘Be Willing to Talk about These Uncomfortable Issues’,” The Long View podcast, Apr. 6, 2021.  “William Bernstein: ‘We’re Starting to See All of the Signs of a Bubble’,” The Long View podcast, Mar. 9, 2021.  “Jason Hsu: China Is ‘the Last Great Remaining Alpha Reservoir’,” The Long View podcast, Apr. 20, 2021.  “Jason Zweig: Temperament Is Everything for Most Investors,” The Long View podcast, June 29, 2021.  “David Herro: ‘We Are Not at All Afraid to Vary from an Index’,” The Long View podcast, July 13, 2021.  “Robin Wigglesworth: The Rise of Indexing and the ‘Renegades’ Who Ushered It In,” The Long View podcast, Nov. 16, 2021.  “Bob Seawright: There Is No Such Thing As a Passive Investor,” The Long View podcast, Nov. 2, 2021.  “Meb Faber: ‘To Be a Good Investor, You Have to Be a Good Loser',” The Long View podcast, Sept. 7, 2021.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On this week’s episode, we’ll feature some of our favorite clips from interviews we’ve done with financial planners, advisors, and retirement researchers over the past year.Here are the complete episodes that are referenced in this week’s episode."Daniel Crosby: ‘If You’re Excited About It, It’s Probably a Bad Idea,' " The Long View podcast, Aug. 31, 2021. "Manisha Thakor: Beware of ‘Junk Personal Finance,' " The Long View podcast, July 20, 2021. "Daniel Egan: Noisy Successes and Silent Failures,” The Long View podcast, Dec. 7, 2021. "Lynnette Khalfani-Cox: ‘There’s a Huge Wealth Gap in America,’ ” The Long View podcast, Sept. 28, 2021. "Sarah Newcomb: ‘I Love Rules of Thumb,’ ” The Long View podcast, Aug. 10, 2021. "Hal Hershfield: People Treat Their Future Self As If It’s Another Person,” The Long View podcast, Sept. 21, 2021. “Ramit Sethi: How Can Couples Make Peace Over Money?” The Long View podcast, Nov. 30, 2021. “Fritz Gilbert: Early Retirement Made Simple,” The Long View podcast, Oct. 26, 2021. “Mike Piper: Delaying Social Security Not Always a Great Deal,” The Long View podcast, April 27, 2021. “Bill Bengen: Revisiting Safe Withdrawal Rates,” The Long View podcast, Dec. 14, 2021. “Teresa Ghilarducci: To Fix Retirement, Expand Social Security,” The Long View podcast, May 18, 2021. “Andrew Biggs: Create a Thrift Savings Plan for the Masses,” The Long View podcast, May 25, 2021. “Meg Bartelt: ‘More Money Does Not Make You Happier,’ ” The Long View podcast, March 2, 2021. “Laura Carstensen: ‘I’m Suggesting We Change the Way We Work,’ ” The Long View podcast, Sept. 14, 2021. “Carl Richards: It Should Be OK to Relax Out Loud,” The Long View podcast, July 27, 2021. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

John Rekenthaler, an expert at Morningstar Research Services, joins Christine Benz to dive into retirement withdrawal strategies. They discuss a pivotal study that suggests retirees may need to adjust their withdrawal rates lower than in the past due to current market conditions. The duo explores various strategies for sustainable spending during retirement, the risks of relying only on bonds, and the importance of adapting to shifting capital markets. Their insights equip listeners with strategies to enhance financial stability and quality of life in retirement.

Our guest on the podcast today is William Bengen. Bill has been a prolific researcher of retirement planning matters over his career, and he pioneered the exploration of safe withdrawal rates with his groundbreaking 1994 research that gave birth to what's now called the 4% rule. Bill is the former owner of Bengen Financial Services, an independent Registered Investment Advisor that he launched in 1989, after his family sold the soda-bottling business that he had helped manage. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in aeronautics and astronautics from MIT. Bill retired from his financial planning practice in 2013 but continues to conduct research on retirement planning and withdrawal rates. We're excited to have him here today.BackgroundBioIn-Retirement Withdrawal Rates and Asset Allocation“The Originator of ‘the 4% Rule’ Thinks It’s Off the Mark. He Says It Now Could Be Up to 4.5%,” by Neal Templin, barrons.com, Jan. 23, 2021.“The Planner’s Toolkit for Managing Retirement Withdrawal Plans,” by William Bengen, financialplanningassociation.org, April 2021.“Resolving the Paradox--Is the Safe Withdrawal Rate Sometimes Too Safe?” by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, May 2008.“Bill Bengen Revisits the 4% Rule Using Schiller’s CAPE Ratio, Michael Kitces’s Research,” by Bill Bengen, fa-mag.com, Dec. 17, 2020.“Can We Raise Our Safe Withdrawal Rate When Inflation Is Low?” earlyretirementnow.com, Oct. 26, 2020.“Economic Outlook: Still Rising,” by Preston Caldwell, Morningstar.com, Oct. 3, 2021.“Jonathon Guyton: What the Crisis Means for Retirement Planning,” The Long View Podcast, Morningstar.com, June 17, 2020.“Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data,” by William Bengen, retailinvestor.org.“The Rules of Retirement Spending Are Changing,” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, Nov. 26, 2021.“Choosing the Highest Safe Withdrawal Rate at Retirement,” by William Bengen, fa-mag.com, Oct. 1, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.