Lead-Lag Live

Ever wondered how the fascinating world of Wall Street risk modeling works and its correlation to Bitcoin? Former Wall Street quantitative analyst, Tone Vays, joins us to unravel this intriguing aspect of finance, offering a window into the unpredictable market conditions and the complexity of risk models. Drawing from his rich career on Wall Street, Tone also brings to light his discovery of Bitcoin and the journey that led him to becoming a staunch advocate for this revolutionary cryptocurrency.Continuing on the path of financial enlightenment, we dive headlong into a captivating discussion on Bitcoin as both a private asset and a hedge. Tone juxtaposes Bitcoin with conventional assets like stocks, bonds, and gold, and argues why Bitcoin has remained an unmatched asset since its birth. Together, we delve into the concept of uncomfiscatability, the challenges in achieving self-custody of Bitcoin and the potential implications of ignorance about this digital currency. Furthermore, we examine how government policies could impact Bitcoin's future, a topic that has stirred much debate in the crypto space.But that's not all! We also scrutinize the possible correlations between gold, Bitcoin, and the stock market, reflecting on the 2008 gold crash and its subsequent effect on the global market. Drawing parallels between Bitcoin's behavior during the COVID-19 crisis and the stock market, we ponder over Bitcoin's potential to reach new peak prices in the upcoming year and how its four-year halving cycle influences market trends. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a curious onlooker, this episode is guaranteed to leave you buzzing with fresh insights and perspectives that will reshape your understanding of finance and Bitcoin.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Are you ready to unravel the complexities of the financial world? This episode promises to serve you a rich feast of insights as we are joined by Daniel DiMartino Booth, a former advisor to the Federal Reserve, and Joseph Wang, an experienced trader. They lend us their expert lens to examine the Federal Reserve's influence on the bond market, the shifting structure of fixed income markets, and the implications of credit spreads. Joseph's trading anecdotes brilliantly illuminate the importance of comprehending the financial system, while Daniel's admiration for Fed chair Jay Powell validates the profound impact of regulations and ETFs on fixed income markets.We are not stopping just there! As our financial expedition continues, we delve into the potential aftereffects of the Fed's quantitative tightening strategy, and what a treasury-only portfolio might mean. Our guests expertly navigate us through the possible economic waves that a soaring dollar could trigger, particularly on emerging markets. They draw our attention towards the Fed's careful observation of markets beyond headline averages and how wealth effect dynamics, inflation, and consumer spending play crucial roles.Our conversation takes an exciting turn as we scrutinize jobless claims data, the impacts of escalating delinquencies, and the stock market. We also aim our spotlight on the global financial system, dissecting potential risks from smaller banks' loan concentration. Daniel and Joseph help us comprehend the ECB's role in providing stimulus and the repercussions of bond market and inflation on the US economy. Wrapping up our chat, we reflect on France's economic slowdown, the US fiscal policy, and the tidal shift towards increased government spending. This episode is surely an enlightening journey into the world of finance, promising to leave you with a broader understanding of these intricate topics.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Are you ready to navigate the intricate and often opaque world of financial markets? Join us as we dissect the latest NVIDIA earnings release, the disconnection between AI's narrative and the reality of market movement, and the dampened enthusiasm from institutional desks. We take a hard look at NVIDIA's technical position weigh the implications of a stock that seems to be peaking relative to SPI.Ever heard of CoreWeave? This company recently boasted an earnings beat and has a curious connection with NVIDIA. We dig deep into the origins of CoreWeave, the backgrounds of its founders, and their expertise in financial engineering. This episode also brings to light the potentially intriguing relationship between CoreWeave and NatSource, a company specializing in carbon credits. And let's not forget NVIDIA's past financial misconduct. We'll debate whether negative intent could be lurking within CoreWeave and NVIDIA's partnership.Finally, listen closely as we assess the potential value of NVIDIA and the role of their Dgx Omniverse. We'll explore the demand from the top Hyperscalers in the world and wonder why NVIDIA needs a related party to grow their inventory. We also discuss the risks associated with investing in NVIDIA and explore different ways to hedge those risks. From the idea of shorting to using imperfect hedges, we'll cover it all. So gear up for an insightful journey into the world of NVIDIA, CoreWeave, and the financial markets!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

If you've ever wondered how to navigate the fast-paced and complex world of US and China markets, look no further than our enlightening conversation with market expert Larry Cheung. Larry brings his deep expertise on the significant differences in analyzing US and China stocks, revealing the necessity for a shorter trading timeframe given the rapid pace of policy changes in China. He also shares his unique DTF model and provides insightful guidance on why China stocks often trade at a discount when compared to their US counterparts.Join us as we shed light on the state of China's economy, looking closely at the country's spending habits and the effects on major corporations like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. We unravel the deflation narratives prevalent in China, discussing strategies to find growth stocks and opportunities for margin expansion. We also delve into the recent initiatives by policymakers aimed at combatting these narratives, including moves to boost real estate sales in top-tier cities. Our journey also takes us into the intricate challenges facing both the US and China. We dissect the impact of their relationship on US Treasury bonds and the TLT ETF, in addition to discussing China's demographic challenges such as youth unemployment and high living costs. Furthermore, we delve into the current state of the US housing market, examining how rising unemployment rates and artificially low supply are creating unfavorable conditions for potential buyers. Finally, we assess the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, the resulting depreciation of the Japanese yen, and its impact on the US debt ceiling and the supply of US Treasuries for the TLT ETF.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Picture the markets as an unpredictable sea, where price and time are the compass that guides us. That's the world of trading, according to our guest Cheds, a seasoned trader with over a decade and a half of invaluable experience. Not only has Cheds successfully navigated the tumultuous waters of trading, but he has also managed to weather the storm of a lymphoma diagnosis, penning two books and a poignant cancer memoir in the process.In this riveting conversation, we pull back the curtain on the psychology of trading. Cheds offers an insider's view on sentiment and opportunity identification, emphasizing the essential role of discipline. As we journey through the complex landscape of trading, we unearth the hidden dangers of relying on algorithms, the importance of honing our instincts, and the critical task of risk management. Whether you're a newbie trader or a seasoned veteran, Ched's insights on the long-term trends of Bitcoin, the principle of capital preservation, and the significance of continuous research and learning are sure to leave you enlightened and inspired.We wrap up our chat with Cheds discussing content creation and the art of executing effective follow-ups. Simplicity is key, says Cheds, as he offers pearls of wisdom on refining trading strategies, using cash as a discipline tool, and seizing unexpected opportunities. We drive home the importance of timely and effective content release and the necessity to conduct follow-up meetings. If you've ever wondered what it takes to succeed in trading, this episode is an unmissable deep-dive into the psyche of one of the most experienced traders in the game. Tune in as we unravel the mysteries of trading success with Cheds.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Join us on a captivating journey as we dissect economic predictions and investment strategies with the acclaimed Gary Shilling. In this episode, we go beyond the ordinary and unearth overlooked opportunities that can reshape your investment decisions. We delve into Gary's unique principles for assessing the economy and financial markets, and unveil his predictions that shaped the bond rally in the '80s. A fascinating discourse awaits you as we unravel the intricate interplay of technology, labor, and product pricing.As we continue our exploration, we venture into the potential repercussions of the Industrial Revolution on the workforce and the anticipated implications of artificial intelligence on job security. Are we on the brink of another recession? We analyze the current yield curve and leading indicators to answer this question and investigate the apparent disconnect between the stock market narrative and the reality on the ground. We open a window into consumer behavior, highlighting the hesitation to spend in the current economic climate.Lastly, we rewind to the 1974 recession, breaking down the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy rate and extrapolate the potential effects of a similar downturn on the current economy. Will real estate take a hit? Are layoffs imminent? How will consumer and capital spending be affected? We delve into these pressing questions. Wrapping up, we examine the impact of external crises on the Federal Reserve's policy rate, the potential of a 30% decline in the S&P 500 index, and the susceptibility of stocks in relation to inflation-adjusted yields. This episode is a deep-dive into the dynamics of the economy that you won't want to miss!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

What if the future of the dollar was at risk? What if the geopolitical landscape as we know it was on the verge of dramatic change? Hold onto your seats as we welcome Velina Tchakarova, a seasoned geopolitical consultant with over two decades of expertise in international relations, international security, and political science. This exploration through time and across continents will leave you with a newfound understanding of the world and its intricacies.Our journey commences with an exploration of the power dynamics between the United States and China, the two major players competing for global dominance. We'll shed light on the unique strategies employed by both nations and their implications on the standing of the US dollar. Then, we'll navigate the emerging significance of the BRICS countries and their potential to mold the future through technological advancements. You'll be amazed at the potential power shifts on the horizon. Finally, we'll consider the how the rise of the BRICS countries could pose a threat to the US economy. From the looming shadow of a 'food crisis 2.0' to the consequences of the US's position as an energy superpower, we'll cover it all. We'll also ponder the future scenarios surrounding Russia's war against Ukraine and the related geopolitical risks. Wrapping things up, we'll consider the implications of the US elections on Europe and the potential effects of a Republican president taking office. You won't want to miss this riveting discussion on geopolitical trends, future scenarios, and the future of global competition - all topped off with how you can follow up on our guest's work.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Ever wonder how an engineer would approach the unpredictable world of trading? We sit down with seasoned trader, Tom Basso, whose unique approach stems from his engineering background, treating trading as a continuous data processing endeavor. Join us as Tom shares his journey from managing other people's money to navigating his own funds, while also penning a book to help his clients become better investors. Tom's perspectives on the stock market are as diverse as the range of assets he trades. From commodities to crypto futures, gold, silver, and platinum, Tom's strategies are as varied as they are insightful. We explore his experiences with drawdowns, his ingenious strategies to counter them during sideways markets, and the importance he places on understanding both profits and losses. Tom's advice for achieving speed and experience in trading different asset classes, along with his views on the current market, and the fine line between predicting and trading, are not to be missed. But what about the risks that come with trading? Tom's got you covered. We delve into his risk management strategies in volatile markets, the role his engineering background plays in his approach to trading, and how position sizing can significantly impact returns and risk more than buy and sell indicators. Tune in as we also discuss his play on earnings gaps and his time-saving trader's resource website. Perfect for anyone keen on trading, investing, or managing risk, this episode is packed with insights and invaluable advice. Join us and take a peek into the exciting trading world through Tom's seasoned lens.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Introducing Taylor Fravel, an esteemed political science professor from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Brace yourselves for a deep dive into the intricate maze of China's foreign policies and military strategies. Our intriguing conversations navigate through China's territorial disputes, nuclear policies, and the captivating realm of information warfare. Taylor, with his vast expertise, unveils the façade of China's multifaceted interactions with the world and the role technology plays in shaping its defense strategies.As we peel back the layers, we stumble upon China's crafty efforts to shape global narratives and undermine their adversaries. The potency of China's messaging strategies and propaganda machinery is a testament to its vigor in seizing control of international diplomacy. The dialogue takes an exciting turn when we juxtapose China's military footprint against the US. Is China's pursuit of nuclear expansion and modernization a signal of an impending global power shift? Tune in to find out.The economic tussle between the US and China is no secret. We dissect this dynamic relationship, revealing how the US is balancing the scales between competition and cooperation. The shift from decoupling to de-risking, the role of US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, and the economic reality of America's trading relationship with China, all come under the microscope. As our conversations reach their zenith, we scrutinize the negotiation landscape and inspect the progress made in creating a new channel dedicated to addressing US-China issues. Taylor's insights provide a clarified understanding of the global power play at hand. Join us for this riveting discussion that peels back the layers of international politics and unveils the intricacies of global power dynamics.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Ready to explore the riveting world of Bitcoin, entrepreneurship, and artificial intelligence? We're thrilled to have Aleks Svetski on the show, a dynamic entrepreneur who transitioned from civil engineering to Bitcoin writing. He shares his fascinating entrepreneurial journey and his evolving perception of Bitcoin - from a simple payment solution to a grander societal remedy. We also spotlight the early adopters of Bitcoin and the progression of its narrative. We're not stopping at Bitcoin. This episode uncovers the misunderstood world of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a concept too often blown out of proportion on the internet. We dissect the layers of human intelligence, compare it to AI, and examine the implications of language models emulating human-like language. As AI marches on, should we start considering regulation? We leave no stone unturned.In the final segment, we dig into the concept of 'perpetual chulok' - the ratio of valuing the present against the future. Reflect on how internet and crypto projects create a consistent frenzy, and how the pandemic has emphasized life's fragility. Bitcoin's unique positioning in the market cycle could potentially shift our collective psychology towards a sound money system. This episode is a treasure trove of insights, so sit back, tune in, and let's explore the fascinating intersection of Bitcoin, entrepreneurship, and artificial intelligence.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show