Lead-Lag Live

Strap in for an energetic journey through the financial cosmos with our seasoned guest, Steve Miller. With a staggering half-century tenure in trading, Steve provides an intriguing look into his voyage from a market maker on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange to forging his distinctive trading business. His unique perspective on the seismic shifts within the industry due to no commission trading is a riveting exploration into the ever-evolving world of finance.We guide you through the twists and turns of the commodity market, taking a deep dive into the oil and industrial metal markets and the gold cycle. We'll uncover the secrets of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and delve into the peculiar market correlations observed in this cycle. Steve draws on his vast experience to reveal detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's actions and their consequences on the economy and markets over the past two decades. He generously imparts wisdom born from personal trading stories and emphasizes the critical role of mental resilience in trading.As we navigate through our analysis of the natural gas, gold, and silver markets, Steve fashions a roadmap of his investment strategies and ventures bold predictions about potential top performers. We'll also discuss the evolution of trading tools and membership services and how they've changed over time. Our journey ends with an emphatic nod to the importance of cycle analysis for successful trading. So whether you're a novice or a seasoned trader, this illuminating conversation with Steve is a treasure trove of insights you shouldn't miss!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Are you ready to unravel the intricacies of the global oil market? Our guest for this episode, oil analyst Rory Johnston, guides us on a fascinating journey through the volatile world of oil prices and the implications of international politics on it. From the recent price surge, potential sanctions on Iran, to the possible easing of limitations on Venezuela, you'll get a front-row seat to the rollercoaster ride that is the oil market.We're also serving up a comprehensive analysis of oil market dynamics against the backdrop of major global events and economies. Uncover how the Israel-Hamas conflict has a bullish effect on the oil market and why China's strong demand for oil persists despite mixed economic signals. Plus, we're lifting the veil on the U.S Strategic Petroleum Reserve and its potential to offset a price spike.But that's not all. We're diving deep into the realm of refining, with an emphasis on crack spreads. Rory unravels the current gasoline oversupply phenomenon and the vital role of China's independent refineries in the market. Lastly, we're turning our attention to Venezuela and Iran, examining the potential benefits of a sanction reduction deal with Washington and the impact of tighter sanctions on Iran. Join us, and be enlightened on the complex interplay between geopolitics and the oil industry.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Ever wondered why brilliant individuals flounder in the stock market? What if I told you these missteps have little to do with their intelligence but more to do with their ego, herd mentality, or simply refusing to admit a mistake? Forbes.com contributor and author Karl Kaufman joins me to dissect the common pitfalls facing individual investors and also, unpick the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation. Karl unflinchingly calls into question whether the Fed's reassurances are as solid as they purport, hinting at potential financial tremors ahead.Imagine a world where you could harness the power of contrarian investing, using your intuition to guide your stock trading strategies. That's precisely the world Karl Kaufman inhabits. He shares insights from his journey, including how he cut his teeth in investing under his father's tutelage. Karl's father ingrained in him principles like contrarianism, concentration on a single position, and the value of independent thinking. This episode will also give you an inside look at Karl's decision to start his own business helping others navigate the labyrinth of investing.We wrap up our enlightening conversation with Karl by emphasizing the crucial role of financial education and critical thinking in stock trading. We dissect the media's failure to scrutinize predictions, the worth of conducting your own research, and the importance of humility and intellectual honesty in the stock market. Karl gives us a sneak peek into his unique concoction of investment strategies, gleaned from various investors and his own experiences. So, if you're serious about advancing your financial education and honing your critical thinking, this episode is your ally.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Are you ready to crack the code of the financial world? Step into our exclusive conversation with Gary Brode of Deep Knowledge Investing, as we navigate through the labyrinth of government spending, its inflationary impact, and more. We challenge conventional wisdom as we closely scrutinize the repercussions of a decade-long policy of near-zero rates by the Fed, compounded by trillions spent on quantitative easing.As we explore the intriguing world of finance, we cast an analytical eye over the rising US interest expense, the underlying effects of congressional overspending, and the potential consequences of higher rates on the government balance sheet. Our mission to unravel the complexities doesn’t stop there. We consider the possible return of negative real rates, delve into scenarios of a stealth default, and even ponder a similar predicament for the US as that of Japan's high debt-to-GDP situation.Our episode culminates in a compelling discussion on the rising debt, the discipline demanded by bond vigilantes, and the economic consequences of hypothetical reductions in the FED's fund rate. We compare the fiscal landscapes of the US and Europe and suggest potential investment opportunities to navigate this era of consumer spending and low unemployment. Finally, don't miss our conversation on effective communication and strategy in investing, filled with invaluable insights from our guest expert, Gary Brode.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

What does it really mean to understand money systems? This is the captivating question that we dive into with our esteemed guest, Lyn Alden, in a potent discussion that takes you on a journey through the history of currency and its technological evolution. Together, we peel back the layers of complexity and look at the characteristics that define good money, while highlighting how the mismanagement of such systems can have disastrous consequences.Our conversation takes a turn towards the darker side of finance where we uncover the issues plaguing our current broken money systems. The lack of transparency in some jurisdictions, the widening wealth gap due to currency dilution, and the manipulative power of international organizations like the IMF are just some of the topics we broach in our gripping exchange. Lyn's unique insights into these matters are drawn from her extensive research and personal experiences, most notably her time living in Egypt where she witnessed firsthand the effects of high inflation and weak capital markets.We wrap up our discussion by looking towards the future, and the promise of Bitcoin and other digital assets in changing the financial narrative. The concept of decentralized money challenges the status quo, and we discuss its potential in creating a more egalitarian economic landscape. We also delve into the geopolitical implications of the modern monetary system, and how the rise of digital currencies could redefine the concept of currency sovereignty. This episode is an eye-opening exploration of money and its impact on our world. Don't miss our lively chat with Lyn Alden, where we unmask the complexities of money systems and ponder the possibilities of a financial revolution.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Buckle up for an insightful journey with our esteemed guest, Chris Giancarlo, former chairman of the CFTC and a respected voice in the realm of digital currency and blockchain tech. With his rich experience straddling law, technology, and political corridors, Chris brings a treasure trove of wisdom to this episode. We delve into his time at the CFTC during the Obama and Trump administrations, as well as major market scandals and the cryptocurrency boom under his watch.Fasten your seat belts as we navigate the complexities of technology and crime, the generational chasm in technology comprehension, and the labyrinth of regulating rapidly evolving spaces like Bitcoin futures. Together, we will probe the role of regulations in markets and the imperativeness of keeping pace with technology. We will also tackle the intricate dynamics of a government-issued digital currency, exploring its potential implications for privacy, free speech, and the future standing of the US dollar.As we approach the finale, we shall delve into the exhilarating, and sometimes contentious, world of digital currency. Listen closely as Chris sheds light on the potential consequences of a digital dollar, the government's role in shaping digital value systems, and the critical importance of safeguarding privacy and free speech within these systems. We will also examine the possible competition with the digital yuan, emphasizing the need to construct a future in which digital value networks are both privacy-protecting and resistant to censorship. So, settle in for a thrilling ride through the digital currency landscape with our distinguished guest, Chris Giancarlo.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Brace yourselves for a riveting exploration into the realm of treasury tail events with the insights of our guest, Michael Kramer, a seasoned buy-side trader turned independent investor. We delve into the labyrinth of treasuries, the world's most crucial asset, and the potential devastation that tail events can unleash. Mike's journey from a trader to an independent investor is nothing short of an adventure and offers valuable lessons on the importance of having a strategy that suits you. We underscore the need for staying true to your process, despite the ever-changing market conditions, and the role integrity plays in the world of investments.Get ready for a deep-dive into credit spreads, earnings growth, and market risk. We throw light on the implications of credit event VIX spikes, the potential of a market meltdown, and the flight to safety trade. Misaligned valuations and their impact on the market if earnings growth fails to meet projections is another thrilling topic we tackle. We also highlight the importance of identifying idiosyncratic risk over beta risk in the market and why it's unwise to attack those with a nuanced understanding of the market.As we progress, we take an exciting turn to compare gold and Bitcoin as potential hedge assets in uncertain economic times. With Michael Kramer sharing his perspectives on the volatility of Bitcoin and the dangers of short-term trading, this episode will make you rethink your investment strategies. We also discuss the potential implications of rising oil prices on inflation and treasury yields. Lastly, we dwell on the importance of self-promotion and opportunities that arise in tumultuous times. So buckle up for this roller coaster ride into the world of treasuries, credit spreads, and hedge assets.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Unveiling the mysteries of mathematics in finance, we're thrilled to welcome our esteemed guest, Ophir Gottlieb. With a wealth of 25 years of experience under his belt, Ophir will be sharing invaluable insights into the challenges and nuances of financial trading. Discover how over-analysis can be a trader's downfall, and the perils of unpredictable errors in the mathematical landscape. Brace yourself to uncover strategies to navigate the increasing unpredictability of the error term, a growing concern in the field.Prepare to be mesmerized as we unravel the enigma of randomness and its far-reaching impact on the economy. From stochasticity to contagion in finance and credit, we will shed light on the intriguing world of random processes. We'll take you on a journey through changing risk parameters, credit spreads and their profound market implications. You'll be intrigued to learn how these seemingly abstract concepts have real-world consequences and can trigger ripple effects on the economy.As we conclude our exploration, we'll equip you with effective strategies for options trading in a volatile market. We'll critique the Fed's communication tactics, drawing parallels to a trader without a plan, and exploring how they can improve their messaging. And finally, you'll learn how understanding randomness and shifting risk distributions can uncover hidden opportunities. So, join us on this riveting journey with Ophir Gottlieb, and let's decipher the complex world of mathematics in finance together.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Today, we're fortunate to have Chris Martenson joining us, and he's bringing along some invaluable insights on the intricate relationship between energy and economic prosperity. Prepare to have your understanding of energy as the 'master resource' expanded, as Chris breaks down the concept of net energy, and how it drives all economic activities. We'll also be tackling the historic link between oil consumption and economic growth, and discussing what the future might hold for us in this regard. Strap in for a deep journey into the global oil market, and its gravitational pull on the US economy. Brace yourself for the gritty details on how the rise of China to become the number one importer of oil is reshaping global dynamics. We'll also be shedding some light on the Petrodollar system, and how its gradual disintegration could potentially recreate the world's economic landscape. Lastly, hang tight as Chris shares his investment strategies, offering a unique perspective on the current market. Get ready for a diverse discussion on the relationship between gold prices and real rates, and how gold's performance can be viewed as a monetary asset. We'll wrap up the episode with a profound discussion on resilience and preparedness, exploring the concept of peak prosperity, and how it can assist you to navigate the uncertain economic landscape. This is an episode packed with thought-provoking insights you'll not want to miss out on!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Get ready for an illuminating journey as we join forces with our esteemed guest, Ben Hunt, a maestro in understanding narrative archetypes. Ever wondered how the complex realms of artificial intelligence could be deciphered? We're about to unfold the mystery, breaking AI down to its core and demonstrating how narratives are shaping industries and influencing money management across diverse market cycles. Are you intrigued by the narratives that drive Wall Street's strategies and decisions? We turn the spotlight onto these macro narratives, demonstrating how their presence, or absence, can impact market trends and investment decisions. We'll guide you to understand the importance of observing the bigger picture, the school of fish rather than individual fish, to navigate the volatile waters of trading. Lastly, we explore the narratives that are quietly shaping interest rates. From tracking macro narratives and their sway on ten-year treasury rates to the disappearance of a looming recession narrative, you'll learn how such shifts can affect rates dramatically. We also dive into the rising mainstream narrative of interest rates potentially reaching a significant 6-8%, and how you can leverage these narratives to seize trading opportunities. Don't miss our enlightening conversation on the resurgence of inflation and the potential global impacts of the Bank of Japan's interventions in the yen.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show