

Lead-Lag Live
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
Lead-Lag Live is your front-row seat to unscripted, real-time conversations with the sharpest minds in finance, economics, and investing.Hosted by Michael A. Gayed, CFA — publisher of The Lead-Lag Report and a widely followed voice on macro strategy — each episode features candid discussions with top portfolio managers, economists, ETF strategists, best-selling authors, and market practitioners. No scripts. No teleprompters. Just raw insight from people who move markets.Every week, we go deep on the themes that matter most: macro trends, interest rates and Fed policy, equity and bond markets, ETF strategies, geopolitical risk, asset allocation, commodities, currencies, and the interplay between risk-on and risk-off positioning.Whether you manage billions or are just getting started, Lead-Lag Live delivers actionable analysis and frameworks you can use — not surface-level market commentary.Originally broadcast live on X Spaces, every conversation is available here as a full-length podcast so you never miss a discussion.Subscribe now and follow @leadlagmedia on X for upcoming live events.
Episodes
Mentioned books

Dec 12, 2023 • 46min
The World of Uranium Mining and Investment: An Exploration with John Cash
Are you ready to unearth the intricacies of uranium mining and investment with us? With John Cash, the CEO of UR Energy, we embark on a journey that deepens our understanding of uranium extraction, its market trends, and the complex environment of nuclear energy. An experienced geologist and CEO, John Cash lends his expertise to illuminate us on the complexities of in situ mining—a specialized technology crucial for uranium extraction—and the challenges this niche industry faces in finding skilled labor.Let's navigate the multifaceted landscape of uranium mining technology and how recent global events may impact the uranium supply chain. The geopolitical developments such as the coup in Niger and Russia's sway over Kazakhstan's uranium production could potentially affect uranium prices, making the market dynamics rather complex. We'll also discuss the emergence of nuclear energy in the United States, the recent legislation's impact on nuclear reactors, and the role of small modular reactors in the future. Towards the end, we shine a spotlight on uranium investment, as John Cash shares his wisdom on the current market trends and how they influence uranium prices. From sharing experiences on investing in uranium to the future plans of UR Energy, our conversation is a treasure trove of insights. Whether you're a budding investor or just a curious mind attempting to understand the complexities of the uranium market, this podcast episode is your compass. Let's set sail into the captivating world of uranium mining and investment.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Dec 11, 2023 • 45min
Navigating the Terrain of Trend Following: A Deep Dive into Portfolio Management with Larry Tentarelli
Ready for a thrilling journey into the world of trend following? This week, we're lucky to be joined by Larry Tentarelli, the mastermind behind Blue Chipd Daily Trend Report. With his razor-sharp focus on large-cap stocks, Larry expertly guides us through his strategies for spotting market trends and deciding just the right time to take profits. We'll also get his insider perspective on the current market trends and where he thinks the year might end up.Strap in as we tackle the recent bank and small-cap surges head-on, scrutinizing the indicators that hint towards a potential economic slowdown. We emphasize how charts can be your compass in the wild world of investing, illustrating how narratives often fall in line with price. We'll walk you through monitoring key charts, including the S&P, NASDAQ 100, bond yields, and the US dollar – your roadmap for navigating the market using trend following strategies.Buckle up for our deep dive into the current standing of the US dollar and gold, exploring their potential to rock the market. We'll discuss the recent gold surge and what it could mean for equities. We round off by examining trading strategies, portfolio management, and the latest in the banking and gold mining sectors. We also touch on the ripple effects of a credit event and the vitality of robust economic data. The world of investment can be wild, but with our trend-focused approach, we'll help you navigate this landscape. So, tune in and get ready for a thrilling ride into trend following and portfolio management!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Dec 11, 2023 • 50min
Navigating the Complex Landscape of the Cannabis Industry: An Insightful Journey with Brady Cobb
Have you ever wondered what it's like to be at the helm of an emerging industry, particularly cannabis? Meet Brady Cobb, the CEO of Sunburn Cannabis. He's got a tale that's a cocktail of legacy, resilience, and success. From the roots of his family's history woven with cannabis, to his transformation from a lawyer to a cannabis industry tycoon, Brady narrates his intriguing journey. As a bonus, we explore valuable insights into the Florida cannabis market and the unique strides his company is making.Politics, they say, affects everything. Unsurprisingly, the cannabis industry is no exception. Brace yourselves as we maneuver through the labyrinth of political reform and safe banking legislation needed to smoke life into the cannabis industry. Our chat uncovers the marks left by past cannabis convictions, the anticipation building up towards the forthcoming election year, and the potential revolution on the horizon. While we're at it, we'll also shed light on the weighty influence of the alcohol industry, its prospective impact on cannabis, and how the international market could shape the US approach.There are numerous layers to the cannabis industry, and one of the most fascinating is how it intertwines with corporate culture. In this episode, we trace the evolution of cannabis culture and how it's seeping into the fabric of corporate professionalism. Spotlighting the success stories of GTI and Sunburn, we reveal how authenticity can fuel the engines of growth. We delve into the stumbling blocks littering the cannabis landscape and how strategic pricing can be a game-changer. And of course, we wouldn’t miss discussing the exciting technology prospects brewing in the industry. Whether you're a cannabis entrepreneur or just keen to learn, this episode is your golden ticket to understanding the cannabis industry, its challenges, and its opportunities.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Dec 8, 2023 • 37min
Unraveling the Complexities of Trading: A Conversation with Alan Edward
Ever wondered what it takes to succeed in the world of trading? Join us as we unravel the mysteries with full-time trader and market maestro, Alan Edward, our special guest, the Divergent Trader. Listen and learn as Alan shares his trading journey, enlightening us on how he transitioned from day trading to swing trading, and from trend following to breakouts. Discover the crucial role of rigorous backtesting and the software that aids him in testing his strategies over extended periods of time.The episode takes an interesting twist as we look back on this year's trades and the challenges faced in maneuvering through the deceptive markets. Alan further highlights the mental side of trading and the significance of adhering to a rules-based approach. We also tackle common trading biases, such as recency and hindsight biases, and emphasize on the importance of managing them. The conversation takes a global turn as we discuss the dominance of US equities in the global market and how diversifying globally can help offset home bias.Get a sneak peek into his successful strategies and his book "The Blueprint to Trading Psychology." Alan highlights the role of noise in trading and the importance of setting routine and goals for motivation. We wrap up the conversation with some social media talk, as Alan shares his resources and advice for beginners. So, buckle up and tune in for an insightful conversation, and don't forget to follow Alan on his social media platforms for more trading insights!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Dec 7, 2023 • 44min
From US Equities to European Markets: A Comprehensive Analysis with Peter Berezin
Ready to uncover the secrets of global investment strategies? This episode promises to deliver a wealth of knowledge, straight from the brains of renowned expers Peter Berezin. Join us as we dissect the financial world, exploring the current dominance of US equities, the potential of emerging and European markets, and the looming impact of an imminent recession. Our guest brings his wealth of experience to the table, allowing us to dig deep into the complexities of small cap stocks and the financial landscape as a whole.Buckle up as we traverse the intricate terrain of monetary policy and the inevitable recession risks in the US. Our journey takes us all the way to Japan, focusing on the Bank of Japan's attempts to normalize its monetary policy and the potential for a reverse carry trade. We'll unearth the potential performance of the yen in the coming year and the cultural aspect of deflation in Japan. We also dive into the transformative role of AI, offering a fresh perspective on its impact on businesses and investors. Finally, our discussion takes a global turn, topping off with some exciting non-US investments. We'll shed light on the potential of emerging markets, the geopolitical rifts impacting Mexico and Vietnam, and the possibility of European banks being a great long-term investment. Michael Gayed and Peter also share their insights on the role of central banks like the ECB in mitigating financial crises. So, join us for an exciting tour of the global financial landscape, led by the industry's best!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Dec 6, 2023 • 38min
Navigating the Looming Debt Crisis: Unpacking Economic Predictions with John Mauldin
Brace yourself for an enriching dialogue with our distinguished guest, John Mauldin, an acclaimed investment publisher and writer who's carved a path from direct marketing to economic analysis. We traverse the contours of his career, personal life, and his discerning insights on the looming debt crisis brewing in this decade’s horizon. His predictions, based on rigorous analysis of economic, social, and geopolitical cycles, highlight an impending crisis triggered by soaring national debt and the potential socio-economic repercussions.Our conversation takes a riveting turn as we navigate the treacherous waters of a possible financial crisis, fueled by the staggering $2.4 trillion debt. We scrutinize the consequential role of interest rates, the potential for a deflationary spiral, and the pivotal role of The Fed in government debt. Hear Maulden's astute predictions of the US trailing Japan into a similar financial crisis by late 2030s and the ripple effects this could have on the global economy. This dialogue is geared to enlighten you about the necessary compromises, including tax hikes and spending cuts, and the imperative for sound bipartisan compromises in these crucial matters.John offers an incisive analysis of the current economy, digging into potential future crises rooted in financial cycles and the overproduction of elites. Hear his thoughts on the credit markets, the possibility of a future credit event, and his take on the 2008 crisis. As we shift gears into discussing inflation, the housing market, and energy prices, John enlightens us on the best possible hedges against inflation. Don't miss out on this conversation, filled with illuminating insights, expert analysis, and a deeper understanding of the economic challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Dec 5, 2023 • 48min
Unveiling Market States and Predicting Recession with Michael Khouw
Prepare to be enlightened! We're revealing the real picture behind the AI hype in the finance industry, exposing the deceptive nature of some statistics, and unlocking the truth of the market's current state. Join us as industry wizard, Michael Khouw, shares his rich experience in finance, options trading, and AI-driven investment strategies. Could we be on the brink of a recession that might hit in four to seven months? Let's dissect the factors contributing to this prediction: consumer overstretch, elevated rates, soaring borrowing levels. Discover the role played by robust balance sheets and cash flows in larger companies and the impact of struggling businesses and consumers. Unravel the mystery of central banks' role in money creation and understand the potential economic effects.Feel the excitement as we delve into the world of volatility, its impact on market performance, and its correlation with various stocks’ size and cash flow. We dissect the role of the S&P 500 and its mega cap stocks in determining overall market volatility. Navigate the challenges of finding profitable trades in a muted volatility environment. Don't miss this insightful journey into the world of finance, AI, and economics!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Dec 3, 2023 • 40min
Navigating the Shift to Electric Vehicles and AI Revolution: Insights from Farzad Mesbahi
For the electric vehicle enthusiasts and AI aficionados, prepare to be electrified. Our guest, Farzad Mesbahi, a former Tesla employee turned EV content creator, unravels the complex tale of the electric vehicle's journey. From a scorned alternative to prevailing gas cars, to emerging as a potentially superior choice, Farzad connects the dots with unflappable expertise. He further dissects the supply chain hitches tormenting traditional car manufacturers in their transition to EV production. Ever wondered why legacy automakers are fixated on hybrid models over fully electric ones? We navigate this intriguing terrain, weighing the profitability scales and the daunting challenges of this transition. As we debunk common misconceptions about EVs - goodbye range anxiety - we also contemplate the influence of government incentives and the evolving consumer preferences in shaping the EV adoption rates. Shifting gears, we plunge into the drama surrounding OpenAI's alliance with Microsoft, and the potential implications this holds for the future of AI. As we approach the finish line, we take a moment to reflect upon the societal implications of AI, and the ever so intricate balance between innovation and safety in government regulation. Farzad enlightens us on the crucial role of data and compute power in AI development, and teases out the prowess of GROC and GPT-4. Join us on this electrifying journey through the landscapes of EVs and AI, and immerse yourself in the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Dec 1, 2023 • 43min
From Esports to Trading: Exploring the Strategic Journey with Brian Lee
Ever wonder how the strategic mind of a professional gamer might fare in the high-stakes world of trading? Get ready to find out as we sit down with Brian Lee, a former professional esports player who has managed to carve out a successful career in trading after a hand injury put an end to his gaming career. Brian gives us an intriguing glimpse into his journey, detailing his transition from gaming to trading, and the many ways his experience in the former helped shape his approach in the latter.As you tune in, prepare to have your understanding of trading deepened. Brian unpacks his strategic approach, particularly focusing on small cap stocks. We dissect the aspect of risk management, a crucial element in trading, especially for shorting trades, and how it can act as a bulwark against significant losses. Ever heard of zero DTE? We've got you covered on that too, discussing its impact on the market and the inherent risks of shorting as a directional bet. But this conversation isn't all charts, percentages and strategies. We look into the personal side of trading, and how our experiences and skills can shape our unique trading style. Hear Brian's personal account of the adrenaline rush he found in both gaming and trading, the importance of mentors and resources in his journey, and the thrill that comes with successful trades. We also delve into Brian's reflections on the lifestyle and stress of being a professional esports player and the challenges he faced while transitioning into a new career. There's no doubt this episode is an exciting journey, bridging the worlds of esports and trading in a thrilling yet insightful conversation.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

11 snips
Nov 30, 2023 • 39min
John Cochrane on Market Cycles, Inflation Dynamics, and the Role of AI in Investing
Prepare to take a deep dive into the intriguing world of finance with our esteemed guest, John Cochrane, fondly known as the Grumpy Economist. This episode promises to shed light on the complex aspects of market efficiency, survivorship bias, and the intricacies of performance evaluation. We explore the impact of market cycles on active managers and emphasize the need for a disciplined approach towards financial allocation strategies. Let's decode the relationship between interest rates and inflation, examining its evolution over time. We also scrutinize the critical role of expectations and the trust we place in government institutions when it comes to inflation dynamics. But that's not all. We delve into the mysterious world of the American mortgage system, discussing the challenging "mortgage puzzle" and its implications on the U.S. economy. You'll also hear our thoughts on the influence of social media on market efficiency and consumer behavior. In the latter part of our discussion, Cochrane and I express concern about the government's escalating debt and its potential consequences for the average taxpayer. Will the debt bubble finally burst, or will it continue to inflate? More importantly, what does this mean for you? We conclude on a futuristic note and ponder the potential role of artificial intelligence in academia and investing. Do competitive markets shape the success of educational institutions? Cochrane weighs in on this, sharing his thoughts on the changing value of higher education. Don't miss this riveting conversation packed with valuable insights on finance, government spending, and the future of AI in education.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show


