Lead-Lag Live

Join Mike Silva, a market analyst and the creative mind behind the YouTube channel 'Figuring Out Money', as he delves into the complexities of market volatility. Discover how recent spikes in the VIX affect trading strategies and the role of technical analysis in risk management. Mike highlights the importance of understanding gamma levels and offers insights into trading inverse ETFs. The discussion also covers the impact of economic events on market behavior, plus tips for navigating high-volatility periods and optimizing your trading approach.

Lyn Alden, an expert in engineering and finance, dissects the complexities of the Yen Carry trade, tackling the controversial $20 trillion estimate. She sheds light on the dynamics of the US dollar system and its implications for global markets. Topics include the cyclical nature of international markets, the impact of interest rates, and the Treasury's strategic bond buybacks. Her insights on fiscal dominance and Buffett's investment strategies reveal how to navigate economic uncertainty, making for a captivating and enlightening discussion.

Ever wondered how to strategically navigate the financial market, toggling between being bold and being boring? We promise you’ll gain invaluable insights as we sit down with Mike Larson, the Editor-in-Chief and VP at Money Show. Mike shares his journey from Weiss Ratings to his current influential role, shedding light on his strategic approach to market cycles. Learn how major economic downturns differ from shorter-term market events and the implications of central bank actions, particularly the Fed's maneuvers. Discover how market volatility, events in Japan, and the carry trade dynamic draw parallels to past crises and what that means for today's financial landscape. Mike explains the resilience of the S&P 500 amidst VIX spikes and examines whether changes in options trading are tilting market dynamics. We also discuss the shifting performance of market leaders and what this could indicate for future trends. Don’t miss Mike's analysis of gold and silver investments, with a focus on central bank purchasing trends and the potential impacts of Fed policy shifts.Finally, gain a deeper understanding of the interplay between geopolitical risks and oil prices, and the fascinating potential for small cap outperformance during bear markets. We cover internal U.S. politics, insights from the Money Show conference, and the changing sentiment among investors. This episode is a treasure trove of perspectives on market dynamics, economic indicators, and strategic investment approaches, all from one of the industry's seasoned experts.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

What if today's market turbulence signals the onset of another financial crisis akin to 1987, 1998, or 2008? Join me, Michael Gayed, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, as I engage in a profound discussion with Axel Merk, an authority in the gold industry. We dissect current market conditions, compare them with past crises, and uncover the diverse profiles of gold investors—from dollar skeptics to diversification seekers. Axel underscores the necessity of a well-rounded investment toolkit to navigate the unpredictability of financial markets, urging you to expand your comfort zone and prepare for the future.Unravel the intricate relationship between Federal Reserve policies and market narratives in our compelling conversation. We scrutinize the Fed's prioritization of systemic risk over stock market valuations, the complexities of forecasting economic recessions, and the crucial role of credit spreads. Delving into the significance of timely yet limited jobs reports and the rapid shifts driven by media, Axel and I explore the unique market dynamics during slower summer months and the inherent challenges of economic predictions in a tightening monetary landscape.Expand your global perspective as we analyze Japan's precarious financial situation and its potential worldwide impact, including rising borrowing costs and fiscal hurdles. We explore China's strategic gold purchases amid sanctions, the ramifications of increasing credit card delinquencies, and the evolving global economic landscape influenced by China's ascent. Reflecting on skepticism in investment trends and the enduring value of gold in diverse portfolios, I invite you to follow my live insights on Twitter for real-time financial market updates.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Unlock the secrets of the global margin call and understand why the yen's strength could be a critical point of failure in finance with macro researcher Weston Nakamura. In this fascinating episode, we uncover the latest developments in the yen carry trade and its ripple effects on markets like the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Nakamura provides a deep dive into the Japan Ministry of Finance's interventions and their knock-on effects, drawing intriguing parallels with the post-1990s bubble burst era in Japan.We also revisit the infamous 2008 financial crisis through the lens of the carry trade, particularly focusing on the AUD/JPY currency pair and its significant role in market volatility. Listen as we dissect the monetary policy mismatches between Japan and other global economies, and how geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are adding layers of complexity to Japan's economic landscape. Nakamura explains the profound impact of these dynamics on the Japanese yen and the broader economy, especially given Japan's dependency on imported oil and the socio-political ramifications of rising energy costs.In the latter part of the episode, we explore the unique investment behaviors of Japanese NISA account holders and their growing interest in U.S. equities amidst a depreciating yen. Discover how this shift is influencing global equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, and consider the potential for a reverse carry trade scenario. We also discuss the broader market trends driven by systematic and CTA flows, and what the future holds for Japan's interest rate policies under the Bank of Japan. This episode is packed with expert insights and analyses that will keep you well-informed on the shifting tides of global markets.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Ever wondered how Japan's delayed rate hikes or the U.S.'s soaring interest payments relative to GDP could reshape global markets? Get ready for a deep dive with Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital as we untangle the intricate web of current macroeconomic trends. Discover why Tavi holds a bearish outlook on the dollar and what that means for fiat currencies, as well as his perspectives on the dramatic positioning in mega caps and the unpredictable behavior of equity markets amidst recent turmoil.Moving into the metals and mining industry, Tavi offers a goldmine of opportunities, literally. We discuss the concept of fiscal exceptionalism, the undervaluation of mining assets, and why private mining deals could be a jackpot for savvy investors. Tavi reveals how inefficiencies and conservative gold price assumptions create fertile ground for significant returns, especially through leveraged buyouts and strategic investments. If you're looking for new investment frontiers, this segment is not to be missed.Lastly, we tackle the twin giants of AI and infrastructure spending. Learn about the paradoxical nature of AI's initial inflationary pressures juxtaposed with its long-term deflationary effects. Tavi also sheds light on China's aggressive stockpiling of metals and its undisclosed gold purchases, a strategy that could provide unexpected liquidity and act as a market tailwind. This episode is packed with critical insights for anyone keen on understanding the future trajectory of global markets and the burgeoning demand for metals. Prepare to reframe your perspectives with expert analysis from Tavi Costa.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Unlock the secrets of intelligent investing with Diego Parrilla, a former commodities and macro trading expert from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch. Now at Quadriga in Spain, Diego introduces his innovative "anti-bubble" framework, illuminating how misperceptions in the market create undervalued opportunities. His strategy blends gold, fixed income, and options volatility to provide a well-rounded defense for your portfolio. Get ready to rethink your approach to market risk and learn how to capture premiums during extreme market events.Discover the fascinating world of game-changing technologies and their market-shaking impacts. From the dot-com era to the rise of AI and ChatGPT, we discuss how technological excitement often leads to growth spurts and inevitable corrections. Learn why these bubbles might actually expedite the adoption of transformative innovations and how to shield your investments from their volatility. Diego provides insights into leveraging gold, volatility, and other precious metals to navigate through these turbulent times.Dive deep into the economic challenges faced by high-debt nations like Japan and explore the complex interplay of geopolitical risks, economic imbalances, and energy trends. Understand the implications of Japan's soaring debt-to-GDP ratio, the potential for currency devaluation, and the global market repercussions. Drawing from historical analysis and expert insights from Ray Dalio, we unravel the interconnectedness of economic policies and global energy shifts. Equip yourself with strategic protective measures to safeguard your portfolio against these multifaceted risks.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

What if insider trading activity could reveal hidden market trends? Join us as we sit down with Jesse Felder, the brilliant mind behind The Felder Report, to uncover his remarkable transition from Bear Stearns to co-founding a hedge fund and pioneering financial blogging. Jesse shares his invaluable expertise in market analysis, emphasizing the underappreciated significance of insider trading and comparing today's market dynamics with the dot-com bubble era. He also addresses the ever-evolving challenges of creating engaging content in a landscape dominated by passive investing and algorithmic trading.Next, we dive into the economic implications of insider activity with Professor Najat Sehun from the University of Michigan Business School. Leveraging her groundbreaking data, we discuss historically low net insider buying, signaling a bearish outlook from insiders. We explore sector-specific trends, the potential impact of election uncertainties, and unique insider buying activities in the small-cap space. Notably, we highlight turnaround situations like Beyond Inc., where executives like Marcus Limonis play a pivotal role in influencing these purchases.Lastly, we tackle pressing issues like the potential misalignment between the forward PE ratio of the S&P 500 and current economic data, supported by indicators such as the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index. We delve into macro indicators like the dollar, interest rates, and oil prices, and their effects on earnings projections. Our conversation underscores the importance of market breadth, with key signals like the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome forewarning potential downturns. Emphasizing a conservative investment approach, we suggest diversification into energy, materials, real estate, and commodities. Wrap up the episode with heartfelt thanks to our live audience and a reminder to stay connected for future insights.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Can Bitcoin truly be a better form of money than gold? Join us as we sit down with Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management, to unravel his transformative journey from traditional asset management to becoming a leading venture capitalist in the digital asset space. Mark opens up about his initial skepticism of Bitcoin, what led to his change of heart, and why he now sees it as a superior store of value. He also breaks down the distinctions between cryptocurrencies, utility tokens, and digital collectibles, offering a rich insight into the future of blockchain technology, which he intriguingly calls the "truth net."Is the stock market rational or driven by unpredictable forces? In our next segment, we explore the pivotal role of data in today's tech landscape and the evolution of AI. Mark shares his thoughts on the explosion of data creation over the last decade, the critical challenges around data security, and the innovative investments in encrypted data chips. We also dissect the erratic valuations of tech giants like Intel and Nvidia, comparing them to past phenomena such as MicroStrategy's dramatic rise and fall. Mark cautions against shorting momentum stocks, reminding us that the market often behaves irrationally.What does the future hold for global currencies? We delve into the complex world of cryptocurrency regulation and market dynamics, analyzing the SEC's approach to classifying cryptocurrencies like Cardano, Ethereum, and Solana. Mark discusses the SEC's enforcement tactics, their funding mechanisms, and the potential ramifications for investors. Wrapping up the episode, we turn our attention to Japan’s weakening yen and the broader economic implications. From the yen carry trade to demographic trends, Mark offers a compelling analysis of how Japan’s current economic situation could signal future challenges for the US and Europe. This episode is packed with thought-provoking insights and expert perspectives you won't want to miss!The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

What if the American economy's foundation was built on small businesses rather than colossal corporations? Discover how we shifted from a decentralized landscape in the 1970s to today's monopolistic giants with our guest, Matt Stoller, an eminent public intellectual and author on monopolies and finance. Stoller reveals the philosophical shift that prioritized consumerism over citizenship, leading to a relaxation in antitrust laws and a landscape dominated by corporate mega-powers. Learn how this transition has created an economy riddled with extraction and bottlenecks, and how recent administrations are hinting at potential reforms to address these seismic changes.We also delve deep into the political arena, examining how corporate power shapes the strategies of key political figures like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Trump’s evolution towards a traditional Republican stance is contrasted with Harris's nuanced and often contradictory relationship with corporate power and Silicon Valley. Gain insight into Harris’s mixed record as California's Attorney General and the potential influences from powerful entities like Wall Street and labor unions that could sway future policies. This chapter is a compelling look at the intricate dance between politics and corporate dominance.On the global stage, Stoller tackles the complexities of antitrust enforcement, revealing the partisan divides that complicate the legislative process in the U.S. and similar challenges worldwide. Hear about the prolonged antitrust cases, such as the ongoing investigation into Google's monopoly, and the urgent need for more efficient enforcement. We also unpack the murky waters of pharmaceutical pricing, highlighting the significant role of pharmacy benefit managers in drug distribution and costs. This episode is a must-listen for those keen on understanding the systemic issues plaguing major industries and the emerging reform movements aimed at dismantling monopolistic control.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show