Sounds Strategic

In this week’s episode of Sounds Strategic, Meia Nouwens speaks with Executive Director of IISS–Asia, Dr Tim Huxley, on how countries in Southeast Asia have been handling the COVID-19 pandemic and the wider geopolitical impact the crisis may have on the region.Although a hugely diverse region in political, economic and cultural terms, Tim explains how and why Southeast Asia has, for the most part, managed the COVID-19 crisis more successfully than many Western countries. Crucially, Tim warns that as the economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic becomes more pronounced, traditional Western security commitments in Southeast Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region more broadly, could weaken further. This possible absence of Western support could provide a committed China an opportunity to change the balance of power in the region in its favour.Tim and Meia also discuss the political risks present in how Indonesia and the Philippines have handled the crisis and why this pandemic could mark a historic shift in geopolitical authority away from the West and towards the East.We hope you enjoy listening and don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to podcasts.Date of recording: 22 April 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this week’s episode, Antonio and Meia are joined by David Gordon, IISS Senior Adviser for Geo-Economics and Strategy, to discuss how the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global economy, why this crisis is so unique and the prospects for an eventual recovery.The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented and, crucially, near-universal closing of the world’s economy. As David explains, the synchronicity of this shutdown and the simmering rivalry between the US and China are key factors that will likely worsen the economic impact of the crisis and complicate the recovery. David predicts that we will see major changes to global supply-chain dynamics as a result of this crisis, as well as challenges ahead for the international institutions tasked with restoring the global economy in the post-crisis period.During the episode, Antonio, Meia and David also explore how COVID-19 has affected emerging markets, countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic politics in China.We hope you enjoy listening and don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to podcasts.Date of recording: 17 April 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Meia and Antonio are joined by Nigel Gould-Davies, the new IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia and Editor of Strategic Survey, for a discussion on how Russia has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.Despite a slow initial response, the Russian government has started enacting stricter controls in an effort to control the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country. However, Putin has remained notably absent in the public management of the crisis and Nigel explores why Putin is instead delegating this key task to trusted allies.While the reliability of official Russian statistics on the extent of the COVID-19 outbreak may be in doubt, Nigel notes the real concerns that this crisis, coupled with a serious drop in the price of oil and gas, could have an even more detrimental impact on Russia’s economy than the 2008 financial crash.Finally, Meia, Antonio and Nigel discuss the methods and motivations behind persistent Russian efforts to use the pandemic to sow further divisions among Western states. Nigel also explores how the COVID-19 crisis has derailed Putin’s domestic agenda, harming his popularity and delaying the planned constitutional amendments that would allow him to remain in power until 2036.We hope you enjoy listening and don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to podcasts.Date of recording: 7 April 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Mahsa Rouhi and Emile Hokayem join Meia Nouwens for a discussion on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected countries in the Middle East.Iran has been one of the most severely affected countries in the world, with over 3,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 (as of 2 April 2020). Mahsa explains how the Iranian public has responded to this crisis and why the combination of US sanctions and regime negligence has worsened the outbreak in the country.Conflict-afflicted countries, such as Syria and Yemen, also stand to be gravely affected by this pandemic for a series of reasons, including the lack of medical facilities after years of conflict. Emile explores how this pandemic presents a ‘cascade of problems’ for these countries and will likely exacerbate existing insecurities, especially among vulnerable IDP and refugee populations.Both Mahsa and Emile speak on the mixed role non-state groups have had in combating the virus and why a lack of trust in state institutions has led to weakened public adherence to restrictions aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19. They finish the episode by noting some positive diplomatic signs occurring during this crisis that could form the basis for renewed regional engagement after the pandemic has passed.We hope you enjoy listening and don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to podcasts.Date of recording: 31 March 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Sounds Strategic, Antonio and Meia are joined by David Kilcullen, Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales in Canberra, and former special adviser to the US Secretary of State between 2007 and 2009. Over the past five years, the world has witnessed some of the largest city-based battles since World War Two. The sieges of Mosul in Iraq and Aleppo in Syria indicate that urban warfighting is to become a key feature of future conflicts. As a result, David argues, traditional Western military doctrine needs to adapt to meet the new challenges of asymmetric urban conflict.David also discusses why the very concept of ‘war’ may become an area of diplomatic tension as China and the West disagree on what constitutes ‘war-like behaviour’, even in peace time.Finally, Antonio, Meia and David explore some of the positive steps NATO has taken to integrate a whole-of-society approach to modern inter-state competition; the possible hazards of the Trump administration’s recent peace deal in Afghanistan; and the common misconceptions around what makes effective counter-insurgency policy.We hope you enjoy the episode but don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Date of recording: 4 March 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

James Hackett, Senior Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis, and Tom Waldwyn, Research Associate for Defence and Military Analysis, join Meia and Antonio for this episode to discuss the key trends in defence procurement and capabilities identified in the latest edition of The Military Balance, the Institute’s annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics. In recent years, China’s military shipbuilding output has consistently dwarfed that of other countries. Tom and James explain why China requires such an extensive military modernisation programme and identify the practical limitations these new Chinese capabilities may face.James also discusses the re-emergence of peer-to-peer and near-peer competition among the advanced militaries of the US, China and Russia, and what this means for modern international relations.Tom and James also explore the processes and challenges of open-source investigations, how they became interested in military analysis and their reading recommendations for other aspiring military and defence analysts.Reading Recommendations:Michael Howard, The First World War, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002)Bruce Pascoe, Dark Emu: Black Seeds: Agriculture or Accident?, (Victoria: Magabala, 2014)Orr Kelly, King of the Killing Zone: The Story of the M-1, America’s Super Tank, (New Tork: W.W. Norton, 1989)We hope you enjoy the episode and don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sir Tom Beckett, Executive Director of IISS−Middle East, joins podcast hosts Meia Nouwens and Antônio Sampaio for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Tom, Meia and Antônio discuss how countries in the Middle East have reacted to United States President Donald Trump’s proposed plan for Israeli−Palestinian peace. Their discussion also highlights why the peace plan might be difficult to implement. Tom gives a short description of the history of the Middle East and examines the role of non-state armed groups in the region, highlighting the recently published IISS Strategic Dossier Iran’s Networks of Influence in the Middle East. Tom, Meia and Antônio also discuss the role of the US and its policy position towards the region at a time when Middle Eastern countries are looking to diversify their relations for the sake of economic protection. Finally, Tom and Meia briefly touch on China’s interests in the region and Chinese arms exports to the Middle East.We hope you enjoy the episode and don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe Sounds Strategic wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the first episode of the new season of Sounds Strategic, Robert Ward welcomes his new co-hosts Meia Nouwens and Antônio Sampaio on to the podcast.During the episode they discuss the recent election results in Taiwan, the protests in Hong Kong and how the recent coronavirus outbreak has impacted China’s economy and Taiwan. Taken together, these crises have brought new challenges for China’s president, Xi Jinping, suggesting that 2020 may prove to be an especially difficult year for the Chinese leader.New co-hosts Meia and Antônio also reveal their most challenging piece of work at the IISS and what their fantasy research project would be.We hope you enjoy the episode and don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe Sounds Strategic wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In her final episode as host of Sounds Strategic, Kori Schake is joined by the new director of the IISS Geo-economics and Strategy programme and Japan Chair, Robert Ward.During the episode, Kori and Robert discuss how ageing demographics and economic stagnation severely undercut the optimism that surrounded hopes for Japan’s economic future in the late 1980s. Robert goes on to assess whether China risks following Japan’s path or if there are sufficient differences between the two East Asian countries for China’s economy to continue its growth into the 21st century. Kori and Robert also highlight the vital importance of geo-economics as a means of understanding contemporary international relations, diplomacy and statecraft, and the possible consequences of the increasing bifurcation of the global economy. Finally, Robert explains why the idea that China is carefully following a detailed hundred-year plan towards world domination is the myth that he would most want to dispel from the popular discourse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bill Emmott, Chairman of the IISS Trustees, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.From President Trump’s questioning of traditional US allies and commitments, to growing Russian and Chinese influence in international and regional affairs, 2019 has seen a further erosion of the liberal world order established after the Second World War. In this end-of-year special, Bill Emmott and Kori Schake discuss the challenges the liberal rules-based order has faced over the course of 2019, both from within and without. Bill argues that middle powers such as Japan, France and South Korea may have to adapt to an emerging ‘G2’ world where US–China competition determines relations between states. Kori and Bill also discuss the differences between the regimes of Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Xi Jinping’s China, South Korean and Japanese politics, as well as the need for reinvigorated German leadership in the EU.Date of recording: 9 December 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.