Michael Covel's Trend Following

My guest today is Toby Crabel, a tennis player who is now a commodities trader. In 2005, the Financial Times called Crabel "the most well-known trader on the counter-trend side". The topic is commodity trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Crabel's history as a pro tennis player Longevity and consistency in tennis and trading Where Crabel stands with the total number of systems he employs The source of Crabel's profits and the philosophy behind it Price action Winning and losing volatility Why Crabel needs price movement and volume The idea of price shocks and the importance of being aware of them The process of moving from high drawdowns to a much lower drawdown The importance of diversity Early lightbulb moments that informed Crabel's trading style Crabel's experience with Victor Niederhoffer How the philosophy of Objectivism has informed Crabel's life The liquidity of futures markets The importance of persistence Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Alex Greyserman, Chief Scientist at managed futures firm ISAM. He is also a professor at Columbia University. He is a member of the ISAM Systematic Investment Committee. He has 25 years of experience in the Managed Futures industry, having starting initially as Research Director at Mint Investment Management Co. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Idea of young college graduates writing articles about the death of trend following while firms like Greyserman's continue to have tremendous success Alternatives to thinking only 'long stocks' Greyserman's first meeting with Larry Hite and how they have come to have such a career together Why trend following is about more than getting on the right side of the S&P trade The difference between cross-sectional momentum and time series momentum The phrase "crisis alpha" and why trend following does well in times of crisis The cost of not having trend following in your portfolio Benchmarking and diversification Why the worst thing you can do is "trend follow a trend follower" The science of trend following Speculation Trend following your life–not just the markets Dispersion among trend following traders Effect of a higher rate environment Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Anthony Todd, the CEO of Aspect Capital, one of the most successful managed futures trend following firms. Todd co-founded Aspect in September 1997. Before that, he was with AHL. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why prices aren't random Finding an inefficiency that the academic financial community refuses to acknowledge The idea of "predictable" patterns in the market The desire to know static positions How crowd behavior drives trends Addressing misconceptions Using fundamentals in a systematic way Defining Todd's medium-term style of trend following Why "it's less about the genius of the trade and more about the repeatability of the approach" How long you can be in a particular market before you give up on it Client understanding of trend following drawdowns The phraseology of "crisis alpha" The culture that Todd has built at Aspect Todd's advice to young entrepreneurs. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Jason Fried, the co-founder and President of 37signals, a privately-held Chicago-based company committed to building the best web-based tools possible with the least number of features necessary. The topic is his book Rework. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: The first dollar Fried made online and other formative experiences Keeping business simple Making something more valuable than the dollars people give you The intimacy of exchanging money The idea of doing less than your competitors to beat them Building an audience The "real world" Why an MBA program might not teach you much about entrepreneurism Corporate structure Focusing on what will not change Zen and the moment of right now Not focusing too far into the future Fried's experience with Jeff Bezos Idea of improvisation or "winging it" in business Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Roland Austrup, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Integrated managed Futures, part of the IAM group out of Canada. Austrup's firm comes at trading from a slightly different perspective: very systematic, but also using fundamentals systematically. The topic is trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How Austrup got started in the industry, and whether he was always a "quant" thinker Early experiences with Ed Seykota Whether Austrup uses a systematic use of fundamentals or a discretionary use of fundamentals Why systematic can be frightening to certain people Managing risk and the return to risk profile Why Austrup targets a downside volatility of 13% Why "the returns will take care of themselves" if you manage risk correctly Trading trends and not market noise Being on the right side of a trend The phrase "equity-like returns" Reviewing trend following performance in recent years Why Austrup's strategy is not based on prediction The importance of a broadly diversified portfolio Lack of correlation to traditional long-only equities strategies The current low rate environment Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Kathryn Kaminski, the deputy managing director the institute for financial research (SIFR) Stockholm Sweden. She's also a contributor to CME Group. She earned her PhD at the MIT Sloan School of Management. At the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, she conducted research on financial heuristics in collaboration with Professor Andrew W. Lo. Her new book, with Alex Greyserman, is "Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha." The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Survivorship bias Kaminski's background and upbringing Convergent risk-taking strategies and divergent risk-taking strategies Social networking as an example of risk Apple as an example of convergent/divergent The importance of failure The efficient market hypothesis, the idea that trend following is "voodoo", and the lack of transparency in trend following Critics of trend following Kaminski's "ah-ha" moment with trend following Why trend following works in times of crisis The adaptive markets hypothesis Looking at markets like ecologies Divergence and "punctured equilibrium" The process of going back 800 years analyzing trend following The idea of black boxes The acceptance of trend following Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Vineer Bhansali, the managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO. His most recent book is "Tail Risk Hedging". He has 24 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in theoretical particle physics from Harvard University. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: "Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle" Trend following in the classical sense How trend following started to become part of the discussion at PIMCO Introducing new ideas to PIMCO, corporate culture, and to clients The three hypotheses tested in "Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle" Currency trading and trend following returns Why larger trend following shops may have trouble getting into smaller markets Trend following across a diversified portfolio and classical trend following approaches Connecting Bhansali's hobbies to the quantitative world Structure and thinking in terms of code Imagining and building simulations Being distribution aware Why being at all-time highs is not the time to feel satisfied Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guests today are Joey Reiman and John Brenkus. Reiman, who runs Brighthouse, has been called the "father of ideation". He's emerged as the subject matter expert in the area of purpose inspired leadership, marketing, and innovation. His breakthrough purpose methodology and frameworks have been adopted by the likes of the Boston Consulting Group, Procter & Gamble, The Coca-Cola Company, McDonald's, KPMG, and many other Fortune 500 companies across the globe. As an adjunct professor at the Goizueta School of Business at Emory University, he teaches tomorrow's executives his revolutionary theories and applications for purpose-inspired profit. Brenkus is the host of the ESPN show, Sport Science. Sport Science is an ongoing television series that explores the science and engineering underlying athletic endeavors. The topics are marketing and sports science. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Reiman discuss Reiman's background and mission in life; looking for meaning; figuring out your "why"; the process of teaching, and the areas where certain people may get tripped up; looking back to your beginnings; the destructiveness of outside voices; calmness and contemplation; solitude vs. aloneness; "money doesn't create ideas–ideas create money"; why daydreaming isn't necessarily a bad thing; creativity and environments; changing the world through changing your routine; routine and creativity; thinking with your heart as much as your mind; Apple vs. Google; raw talent, creativity, and environment; lucky people and "yes" people; the power of "slow"; and the importance of storytelling. Anything about statistics and science has the potential to inspire Covel and with John Brenkus, he goes straight into it; Also discussed: what triggered the science and sports connection in Brenkus' brain; science and martial arts; measuring human performance; why success doesn't follow a straight line; Brenkus' college experiences and how they are relevant to his work today; the idea of physical limits being reached; why Brenkus became a crash test dummy; the advantage of applying science to any aspect of life; and the Iron Man competition. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Mark Broadie, the Carson Family Professor of Business and Vice Dean at the Columbia Business School. His research focuses on quantitative finance and sports analytics. His golf research has appeared in academic journals and many golf publications. He developed the new strokes gained approach to analyze the performance of amateur and professional golfers and worked with the PGA Tour on their implementation of the strokes gained putting stat. The topic is his book Every Shot Counts: Using the Revolutionary Strokes Gained Approach to Improve Your Golf Performance and Strategy. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How he became, in Covel's words, the "Bill James of golf" How Broadie connected his finance work to the sport of golf Why certain golfers win Why approach shots are the most important "Drive for show, putt for dough" How Broadie started, the software he used, and how he got better data Whether Broadie had any sense of where the data might go when he first collected it Power as a separator The connection between sports analytics, business analytics, and investing The psychology of golf First putts vs. second putts The world golf rankings, and how these can be fixed Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Larry Swedroe, a Buckingham Asset Management principal. He is also a principal and co-founder of BAM Advisor Services, LLC, and serves as the director of research for both entities. Swedroe has authored or co-authored fourteen books and comes at investing from an evidence-based approach. The topic is outside the box market perspectives. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Forecasters and prediction The three types of forecasters Confirmation bias How your political affiliation might change your willingness to listen to forecasts Value perspective vs. momentum perspective The anomaly of momentum The evidence-based thinking approach Momentum trading in 2008 How Swedroe prepares for the unexpected Not treating the unlikely like it's impossible Managing your risk Process vs. outcome The equity risk premium and bear markets Commonplace crises Planning ahead Diversification attempts to get outside of equities Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!