BNP Paribas Wealth Management

In this podcast, Guy Ertz, Deputy Global CIO and Édouard Desbonnets, Senior Investment Strategist, discuss about the macroeconomic consequences of the US elections' outcome:The key determinants over a 6-to-12-month horizon for an exchange rate between two currencies are the differentials in interest rates and expected returns for assets. Over the long-term, the key determinant is the so-called purchasing power parity. It measures the exchange rate that equalizes the price of a representative basket of goods when calculated in dollars.The US election results changed the economic environment. Depending on the focus that the new President will put on the announced policy measures, inflation could rise again. We now expect a higher terminal rate for the US central bank while the opposite is true for the ECB. The expected return for US equities has been revised up for the coming year. We thus revised our outlook for the USD with a 12-month target for the EURUSD (value of one euro) at 1.02. This suggests more strength for the USD relative to our previous scenario. This conclusion is valid for several other exchange rates against the USD.For most exchange rates, the dollar remains overvalued relative to the long-term fair value estimate when we use the purchasing parity. Over previous decades, such deviations have sometimes lasted over several quarters. That could also be the case this time.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dans ce podcast, Edouard Desbonnets évoque l'impact de la réélection du président Trump et du contrôle par le Parti républicain des sièges de pouvoir majeurs aux États-Unis.Le "Trump 2.0" a conduit à un dollar américain plus fort, des rendements obligataires plus élevés, une vente massive de l'or et des actions américaines plus élevées, bénéficiant particulièrement aux petites capitalisations.Les principaux moteurs sont les attentes de réductions d'impôts sur les sociétés, des déréglementations et de droits de douane plus élevés sur les importations, notamment en provenance de Chine et d'Europe.Il existe une incertitude quant à l'impact réel de ces politiques, car Trump ne prendra ses fonctions que le 20 janvier 2025, et l'administration Biden actuelle reste au pouvoir jusqu'à cette date.Les opportunités d'investissement pourraient se trouver dans les obligations d'agence américaines, les obligations d'entreprises de qualité à court terme et l'or, avec un objectif de 3 000 dollars l'once sur 12 mois.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this podcast, Edmund Shing discusses the impact of President Trump's re-election and the Republican Party's control of major seats of power in the US.The "Trump trade 2.0" has led to a stronger US dollar, higher bond yields, a sell-off in gold, and higher US stocks, particularly benefiting US small cap stocks.The main drivers are expectations of lower corporate taxes, deregulation, and higher tariffs on imports, especially from China and Europe.There is uncertainty about the actual impact of these policies, as Trump will not take office until 20 January 2025, and the current Biden administration remains in power until then.Investment opportunities may lie in US agency bonds, short-term investment-grade corporate bonds, and gold, with a 12-month target of $3,000 an ounce.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Jeremy Fasquelle et Guy Ertz, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, échangent autour du secteur automobile européen.Pourquoi nous sommes toujours négatifs sur le secteur automobile européen ?Accélérer la transition vers des véhicules zéro émission d'ici 2035Les voitures européennes finiront-elles par revenir dans la course ?Où investir dans le secteur automobile ?Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dans ce deuxième volet, Jeremy Fasquelle et Pascal Chrobocinski, Senior Hedge Fund Advisor, échangent autour des stratégies event-driven et d’arbitrage M&A.·         Les autres types de transactions Event-Driven. Quelles sont les situations spéciales, les “Soft Events” et leurs implémentations·         Qu'en est-il  des stratégies « event-driven » sur le crédit ?·         Pourquoi avez-vous besoin d’un gestionnaire de fonds expert pour gérer ces situations de restructuration ?Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dans ce premier volet, Jeremy Fasquelle et Pascal Chrobocinski, Senior Hedge Fund Advisor, échangent autour des stratégies event-driven et d’arbitrage M&A.·          Qu’est-ce qu’une stratégie event-driven ?·         Pourquoi des inefficacités de valorisation peuvent se produire ?·         Quels sont les différents types de stratégies event-driven·         Qu’est ce que la stratégie “Merger Arbitrage” ?Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this second episode, Pascal Chrobocinski, Senior Hedge Fund Advisor, and Michael Baughan, Senior Hedge Funds Specialist, at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, discuss event-driven and M&A arbitrage strategies.·         The other types or event-driven trades?·         What are the Special Situations and the Soft Events and their implementations?·         What about event-driven strategies in credit ?·         why do you need an expert fund manager to trade those restructuring situations?Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the first of a two-part series, Pascal Chrobocinski, Senior Hedge Fund Advisor, and Michael Baughan, Senior Hedge Funds Specialist, at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, discuss event-driven and M&A arbitrage strategies.·         What are event-driven strategies within hedge funds?·         Why do pricing inefficiencies occur around corporate events?·         What are the different types of event-driven strategies?·         What is the M&A arbitrage strategy?Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Stephan Kemper, Chief Investment Strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, shares insights on the turmoil facing European automakers. He discusses the slow shift toward zero-emission vehicles by 2035 and the intense competition from Chinese brands. Kemper highlights challenges in maintaining traditional car production while innovating in electric vehicles. He also points out the growing interest in micro electric cars for urban mobility and identifies investment opportunities in the tire manufacturing sector as electric vehicles gain traction.

Explore the fascinating dance between stock markets and crises. Delve into historical responses of markets during tough times and learn why investors often hesitate to dive in. Uncover valuable lessons from past challenges and the resilience markets display. Discover how unexpected uncertainties can create unique opportunities for savvy investors, nudging them to act even when fear looms large.