IFS Zooms In: The Economy

Heidi Karjalainen, a pensions and welfare policy economist, and Jonathan Cribb, a pensions and labour markets researcher, explore rising state pension age and its effects. They discuss what the pension age means in practice. They examine who can and cannot work into their late 60s, how private pensions and health shape retirement, and whether a single pension age makes sense for everyone.

Heidi Karjalainen, an IFS researcher on ageing and pension design, and Jonathan Cribb, an IFS pensions and intergenerational economics analyst. They unpack how pensioner incomes and wealth have shifted, what drives retirement income today, and which groups still struggle. They also consider how housing, private pensions and policy choices shape future retirees’ prospects.

Ben Zaranko, an IFS economic researcher focused on forecasts and public finance risks, and Bee Boileau, an IFS researcher on public spending and defence, discuss the Spring Forecast. They cover how higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could drive inflation and squeeze households, the fiscal trade-offs of raising defence to 3% of GDP, and key uncertainties: unemployment, migration and volatile capital gains tax receipts.

Fiscal rules can sound technical, but they shape some of the biggest choices in economic policy: what we spend today, what we invest for tomorrow, and how we share costs across generations.In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen is joined by Ben Zaranko to unpack why governments use fiscal rules, what the UK’s current rules are designed to do, and why - despite repeated promises - debt has continued to ratchet upwards. They discuss how a narrow, pass–fail approach has encouraged a fixation on “headroom”, contributed to last-minute policy changes driven by forecast movements, and crowded out wider debate about long-run sustainability.They then set out an alternative approach: a clearer fiscal strategy at the start of each parliament, assessed against a broader dashboard of indicators rather than a single bright-line test, using a traffic-light style system to support a more transparent and nuanced public conversation about the state of the public finances.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kate Ogden, IFS economist who explains student finance mechanics, and Nick Hillman, HE policy director and former adviser, debate Plan 2 loans. They unpack income-contingent repayments, RPI+3% interest, write-offs, how plans differ across the UK, cohort changes and political choices. Short, clear conversations on who pays and why the system feels like a tax to many.

Peter Levell, IFS inflation analyst, explains how inflation is measured and who loses out. David Miles, former Bank of England MPC member, outlines why central banks aim for 2% and the trade-offs of rate hikes. They discuss recent shocks that pushed prices up, unequal impacts across households, and the risks that could push inflation back up.

Alan Manning, LSE professor known for research on minimum wages, and Eduin Latimer, IFS economist specialising in low-pay policy, unpack the UK minimum wage. They explore evidence on employment effects, pay compression and promotion incentives. They debate who pays higher wages, interactions with employment rights, and risks for young workers as policy evolves.

The NHS holds a unique place in British life: a source of national pride, and the single biggest public service in England. This year it’s set to cost over £200 billion, around £3,500 per person, more than we spend on education, defence, justice and transport combined. And yet, despite sustained funding increases and around a quarter of a million more staff than in 2019, concerns about performance haven’t gone away.Labour came into office promising to get a grip on record waiting times, but progress so far looks limited. The waiting list stands at 7.3 million, only slightly down from around 7.6 million when the government took office a year and a half ago. With winter pressures, flu surges, and resident doctors taking strike action, it raises a big question: what’s actually going on inside the system, and is improvement realistically on the horizon?In this episode, Helen is joined by IFS colleagues Olly Harvey-Rich and Max Warner to unpack the data and the trade-offs. We look at winter pressures and capacity, what the latest performance metrics tell us, and the real constraints facing the NHS in England - money, productivity and system design. Finally, we look ahead to the rest of the parliament: should we be hopeful about meaningful change, or are the obstacles bigger than the plans?Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Moving into 2026, the government faces a critical period of delivery. After 18 months in power and several major fiscal events behind them, the focus is shifting from setting policy to seeing it through. However, with unemployment reaching 5.1% and a series of high-stakes reviews underway, the road ahead remains complex.In this episode, we are joined by Christine Farquharson and Tom Waters to examine the economic landscape for the year ahead. We look at the rising pressures on the public purse, from health-related benefits to the "national conversation" on SEND, and ask what the upcoming fiscal events might reveal about the government’s long-term strategy. We also look at what could shift the outlook, for better or worse, from public sector productivity to the economic impact of new technologies like AI and GLP-1 drugs.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stuart Adam, a Senior researcher at the Institute for Fiscal Studies with expertise in tax design, joins to dissect nuanced changes in the government’s Budget. They discuss the rationale behind upfront EV grants despite plans for a per-mile tax, and how this aims to manage congestion. Salary sacrifice limits and their potential impact on saving behaviors are also examined. The conversation further explores the implications of increased capital income tax, cuts to cash ISAs, and reforms affecting entrepreneurship, revealing a complex landscape of minor yet significant tax modifications.