Future of Life Institute Podcast

We could all be more altruistic and effective in our service of others, but what exactly is it that's stopping us? What are the biases and cognitive failures that prevent us from properly acting in service of existential risks, statistically large numbers of people, and long-term future considerations? How can we become more effective altruists? Stefan Schubert, a researcher at University of Oxford's Social Behaviour and Ethics Lab, explores questions like these at the intersection of moral psychology and philosophy. This conversation explores the steps that researchers like Stefan are taking to better understand psychology in service of doing the most good we can. Topics discussed include: -The psychology of existential risk, longtermism, effective altruism, and speciesism -Stefan's study "The Psychology of Existential Risks: Moral Judgements about Human Extinction" -Various works and studies Stefan Schubert has co-authored in these spaces -How this enables us to be more altruistic You can find the page and transcript for this podcast here: https://futureoflife.org/2019/12/02/the-psychology-of-existential-risk-and-effective-altruism-with-stefan-schubert/ Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:31 Stefan's academic and intellectual journey 5:20 How large is this field? 7:49 Why study the psychology of X-risk and EA? 16:54 What does a better understanding of psychology here enable? 21:10 What are the cognitive limitations psychology helps to elucidate? 23:12 Stefan's study "The Psychology of Existential Risks: Moral Judgements about Human Extinction" 34:45 Messaging on existential risk 37:30 Further areas of study 43:29 Speciesism 49:18 Further studies and work by Stefan

In this brief epilogue, Ariel reflects on what she's learned during the making of Not Cool, and the actions she'll be taking going forward.

It’s the Not Cool series finale, and by now we’ve heard from climate scientists, meteorologists, physicists, psychologists, epidemiologists and ecologists. We’ve gotten expert opinions on everything from mitigation and adaptation to security, policy and finance. Today, we’re tackling one final question: why should we trust them? Ariel is joined by Naomi Oreskes, Harvard professor and author of seven books, including the newly released "Why Trust Science?" Naomi lays out her case for why we should listen to experts, how we can identify the best experts in a field, and why we should be open to the idea of more than one type of "scientific method." She also discusses industry-funded science, scientists’ misconceptions about the public, and the role of the media in proliferating bad research. Topics discussed include: -Why Trust Science? -5 tenets of reliable science -How to decide which experts to trust -Why non-scientists can't debate science -Industry disinformation -How to communicate science -Fact-value distinction -Why people reject science -Shifting arguments from climate deniers -Individual vs. structural change -State- and city-level policy change

Most Americans believe in climate change — yet far too few are taking part in climate action. Many aren't even sure what effective climate action should look like. On Not Cool episode 25, Ariel is joined by Mario Molina, Executive Director of Protect our Winters, a non-profit aimed at increasing climate advocacy within the outdoor sports community. In this interview, Mario looks at climate activism more broadly: he explains where advocacy has fallen short, why it's important to hold corporations responsible before individuals, and what it would look like for the US to be a global leader on climate change. He also discusses the reforms we should be implementing, the hypocrisy allegations sometimes leveled at the climate advocacy community, and the misinformation campaign undertaken by the fossil fuel industry in the '90s. Topics discussed include: -Civic engagement and climate advocacy -Recent climate policy rollbacks -Local vs. global action -Energy and transportation reform -Agricultural reform -Overcoming lack of political will -Creating cultural change -Air travel and hypocrisy allegations -Individual vs. corporate carbon footprints -Collective action -Divestment -The unique influence of the US

Defunding the fossil fuel industry is one of the biggest factors in addressing climate change and lowering carbon emissions. But with international financing and powerful lobbyists on their side, fossil fuel companies often seem out of public reach. On Not Cool episode 24, Ariel is joined by Ellen Quigley and Natalie Jones, who explain why that’s not the case, and what you can do — without too much effort — to stand up to them. Ellen and Natalie, both researchers at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), explain what government regulation should look like, how minimal interactions with our banks could lead to fewer fossil fuel investments, and why divestment isn't enough on its own. They also discuss climate justice, Universal Ownership theory, and the international climate regime. Topics discussed include: -Divestment -Universal Ownership theory -Demand side and supply side regulation -Impact investing -Nationally determined contributions -Low greenhouse gas emission development strategies -Just transition -Economic diversification For more on universal ownership: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3457205

Wendell Wallach has been at the forefront of contemporary emerging technology issues for decades now. As an interdisciplinary thinker, he has engaged at the intersections of ethics, governance, AI, bioethics, robotics, and philosophy since the beginning formulations of what we now know as AI alignment were being codified. Wendell began with a broad interest in the ethics of emerging technology and has since become focused on machine ethics and AI governance. This conversation with Wendell explores his intellectual journey and participation in these fields.  Topics discussed in this episode include: -Wendell’s intellectual journey in machine ethics and AI governance  -The history of machine ethics and alignment considerations -How machine ethics and AI alignment serve to produce beneficial AI  -Soft law and hard law for shaping AI governance  -Wendell’s and broader efforts for the global governance of AI -Social and political mechanisms for mitigating the risks of AI  -Wendell’s forthcoming book You can find the page and transcript here: https://futureoflife.org/2019/11/15/machine-ethics-and-ai-governance-with-wendell-wallach/ Important timestamps:  0:00 intro 2:50 Wendell's evolution in work and thought 10:45 AI alignment and machine ethics 27:05 Wendell's focus on AI governance 34:04 How much can soft law shape hard law? 37:27 What does hard law consist of? 43:25 Contextualizing the International Congress for the Governance of AI 45:00 How AI governance efforts might fail 58:40 AGI governance 1:05:00 Wendell's forthcoming book

Though climate change and global warming are often used synonymously, there’s a different kind of climate change that also deserves attention: nuclear winter. A period of extreme global cooling that would likely follow a major nuclear exchange, nuclear winter is as of now — unlike global warming — still avoidable. But as Cold War era treaties break down and new nations gain nuclear capabilities, it's essential that we understand the potential climate impacts of nuclear war. On Not Cool Episode 23, Ariel talks to Brian Toon, one of the five authors of the 1983 paper that first outlined the concept of nuclear winter. Brian discusses the global tensions that could lead to a nuclear exchange, the process by which such an exchange would drastically reduce the temperature of the planet, and the implications of this kind of drastic temperature drop for humanity. He also explains how nuclear weapons have evolved since their invention, why our nuclear arsenal doesn't need an upgrade, and why modern building materials would make nuclear winter worse. Topics discussed include: -Causes and impacts of nuclear winter -History of nuclear weapons development -History of disarmament -Current nuclear arsenals -Mutually assured destruction -Fires and climate -Greenhouse gases vs. aerosols -Black carbon and plastics -India/Pakistan tensions -US/Russia tensions -Unknowns -Global food storage and shortages For more: https://futureoflife.org/2016/10/31/nuclear-winter-robock-toon-podcast/ https://futureoflife.org/2017/04/27/climate-change-podcast-toon-trenberth/

Right before civil war broke out in 2011, Syria experienced a historic five-year drought. This particular drought, which exacerbated economic and political insecurity within the country, may or may not have been caused by climate change. But as climate change increases the frequency of such extreme events, it’s almost certain to inflame pre-existing tensions in other countries — and in some cases, to trigger armed conflict. On Not Cool episode 22, Ariel is joined by Cullen Hendrix, co-author of “Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict.” Cullen, who serves as Director of the Sié Chéou-Kang Center for International Security and Diplomacy and Senior Research Advisor at the Center for Climate & Security, explains the main drivers of conflict and the impact that climate change may have on them. He also discusses the role of climate change in current conflicts like those in Syria, Yemen, and northern Nigeria; the political implications of such conflicts for Europe and other developed regions; and the chance that climate change might ultimately foster cooperation. Topics discussed include: -4 major drivers of conflict -Yemeni & Syrian civil wars -Boko Haram conflict -Arab Spring -Decline in predictability of at-risk countries: -Instability in South/central America -Climate-driven migration -International conflict -Implications for developing vs. developed countries -Impact of Syrian civil war/migrant crisis on EU -Backlash in domestic European politics -Brexit -Dealing with uncertainty -Actionable steps for governments

The increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is doing more than just warming the planet and threatening the lives of many terrestrial species. A large percentage of that carbon is actually reabsorbed by the oceans, causing a phenomenon known as ocean acidification — that is, our carbon emissions are literally changing the chemistry of ocean water and threatening ocean ecosystems worldwide. On Not Cool episode 21, Ariel is joined by Libby Jewett, founding Director of the Ocean Acidification Program at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who explains the chemistry behind ocean acidification, its impact on animals and plant life, and the strategies for helping organisms adapt to its effects. She also discusses the vulnerability of human communities that depend on marine resources, the implications for people who don't live near the ocean, and the relationship between ocean acidification and climate change. Topics discussed include: -Chemistry of ocean acidification -Impact on animals and plant life -Coral reefs -Variation in acidification between oceans -Economic repercussions -Vulnerability of resources and human communities -Global effects of ocean acidification -Adaptation and management -Mitigation -Acidification of freshwater bodies -Geoengineering

This summer, the world watched in near-universal horror as thousands of square miles of rainforest went up in flames. But what exactly makes forests so precious — and deforestation so costly? On the 20th episode of Not Cool, Ariel explores the many ways in which forests impact the global climate — and the profound price we pay when we destroy them. She’s joined by Deborah Lawrence, Environmental Science Professor at the University of Virginia whose research focuses on the ecological effects of tropical deforestation. Deborah discusses the causes of this year's Amazon rain forest fires, the varying climate impacts of different types of forests, and the relationship between deforestation, agriculture, and carbon emissions. She also explains why the Amazon is not the lungs of the planet, what makes tropical forests so good at global cooling, and how putting a price on carbon emissions could slow deforestation. Topics discussed include: -Amazon rain forest fires -Deforestation of the rainforest -Tipping points in deforestation -Climate impacts of forests: local vs. global -Evapotranspiration -Why tropical forests do the most cooling -Non-climate impacts of forests -Global rate of deforestation -Why the amazon is not the lungs of the planet -Impacts of agriculture on forests -Using degraded land for new crops -Connection between forests and other greenhouse gases -Individual actions and policies