The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

Has the moment finally come? With West Ham's disallowed goal in the closing seconds against Arsenal, the football discourse has returned to the question of the new corner kick tactic, which this podcast has somehow managed to name "the meat wall". We discuss what happened in the Arsenal match, but our goal is not to referee the moment over. Our focus is on why this seems likely to drive some degree of change in refereeing standards or even the rules of the game, why we think that an assertive response is necessary, and we walk through several possibilities for how the sport and the leagues might respond.Read Caley's new newsletter here: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-meat-wall-era-in-the-premierSupport the show

There is too much to podcast on and we are giving our subscribers a few bonus podcasts. Talking top four in Germany and Italy, recapping the Bayern - PSG second leg, and of course, all the Real Madrid drama.Support the show

Manchester United have had an undoubtedly successful season, qualifying for the Champions League with underlying numbers perfectly in line with that position. But their results shifted markedly when they sacked Ruben Amorim and brought in Michael Carrick. Was this a major driver of their results or a mirage of finishing?We discuss the real tactical changes under Carrick and how they show up in the numbers, why Kobbie Mainoo is the key player in this tactical shift, some notable differences in how the team approaches game state, and nonetheless how there is clearly just a ton of variance going on here. Support the show

That was great. We discuss what made the game so exciting, why it was not a game with enormous expected goals totals, and what that tells us about the tactical approach and quality of play. Plus a Vincent Kompany apology form. Support the show

Somehow, here in 2026, a major title race clash in the Premier League lived up to the billing. We discuss how Arsenal's aggressive defensive approach created an open and exciting match for a long stretch, how City's period of possession dominance in the second half nonetheless also produced some of Arsenal's best scoring chances, and why the final ten minutes were so uninspiring compared to the rest of the match, and what it all tells us about who is likely to win the title. Support the show

There are just a few Premier League teams left in the Say Something Challenge and one of them is Arsenal. Why they're obviously the title favorites and why, seriously asking why are they playing football like this? Plus we fight our way through to having something to say about Burnley, Wolves, Brighton and Forest. Support the show

A deep dive into the rise of set-piece tactics and why long throws and corner routines suddenly pay off. They trace Brentford’s long-throw refinement and Arsenal’s varied corner innovations that others copied. Discussion covers how packed six-yard boxes, second-phase chances, and defensive trends reshaped scoring opportunities. They explore historical attempts and why the revolution accelerated recently.

We are joined by Sam Greenwood, high-stakes poker player and the writer and publisher of the Punt of the Day newsletter (to which Mike Goodman also contributes), to talk about poker and some questions we've been thinking about in sports and analytics and, well, publishing a podcast and recording a newsletter, about the world of optimizing and making money by clicking buttons on the computer. And because Sam is not only our Gambling Correspondent but also our Canadian Soccer Correspondent, we also turn to discussing the Canadian Men's National Team and the upcoming World Cup. Check out Punt of the Day: https://www.puntoftheday.com/2026/Support the show

We take up a challenge from the discord to say something about even the least interesting teams. This podcast series will take us through the international break and begins with Fulham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Everton, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Leeds. Support the show

We are joined by Leif Weatherby, author of Language Machines: Cultural AI and the End of Remainder Humanism, to talk about artificial intelligence: what these new technologies do, but more than that how the fact of their existence can teach us more about how language works. And then we continue down a variety of paths talking sports analytics, optimization, and other topics.https://www.upress.umn.edu/9781517919320/language-machines/Support the show