The Noble Update Podcast

David Nicoski, founder of Vermilion Research and market analyst focused on hard assets and relative strength. He argues for prioritizing energy, materials, and real assets. He explains rotating within groups, spotting commodity and emerging market breakouts, and watching technical pullbacks for buying opportunities.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds controlling around $5 trillion are rethinking huge global stakes. Oil cuts, strikes on infrastructure, and insurance shocks are forcing rapid reviews of contracts and liquidity. Major holdings in European and US assets face potential selloffs and strategic shifts. Timing, escalation risk, and geopolitical fallout drive urgent decision making.

Marc Faber, contrarian investment commentator behind the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, shares hard-nosed market views. He discusses market rigging, why admitting ignorance and broad diversification matter. He explains holding gold as insurance and why long-dated U.S. bonds are risky. He also urges shifting allocation to fast-growing Asian and emerging economies.

A deep dive into why massive cash piles can feel safer than pricey stocks. A look at long-term drawdowns and why small market dips may not matter. Discussion of valuation metrics and historic cautionary moves. Context about rising recession risks and energy shocks shaping investment choices.

$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries.And I don't understand why no one's questioning this.Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch:Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars.Sounds great. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath...The GENIUS Act passed in July 2025. First federal stablecoin framework in US history. Stablecoin market cap has grown 50% year over year. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest holders of American government debt on the planet.Washington's pitch is simple: every time someone in Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria buys USDT, they're buying Treasuries by proxy. Dollar dominance strengthened. Problem solved.And here's the part they REALLY love...The US ran an $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025. CBO projects $1.9 trillion this year. National debt just crossed $39 trillion. Interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion annually. Meanwhile, the biggest foreign buyers of Treasuries (China, Japan, Canada) have been pulling back for years. ARK Invest found that the share of Treasuries held by the largest foreign creditors dropped from 23% to just over 6% in the past 13 years. The Fed is STILL running down its balance sheet. So who's going to buy all this debt? Washington's answer: stablecoin issuers. Treasury Secretary Bessent said it himself: "A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries and help rein in the national debt."Think about what that actually means. The government is counting on a $315 billion crypto product (run largely by a company in El Salvador that just got its first real audit last week) to help finance a $1.9 TRILLION annual deficit. Stablecoin issuers currently hold less than 2% of outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the market hits $2 trillion by 2028 like Standard Chartered projects, that's still just a rounding error against $39 trillion in total debt. This is literally a NARRATIVE designed to make the debt problem sound manageable.But the Federal Reserve published a study showing that for every $1 that moves from bank deposits into stablecoins, bank lending contracts by roughly 50 cents. Stablecoin issuers can't make loans. The GENIUS Act prohibits it. They can ONLY hold Treasuries, reverse repos, and cash equivalents.So when deposits leave banks and flow into stablecoins, that money stops funding mortgages, small business loans, and commercial credit. It starts funding government debt instead.The US Treasury itself estimated stablecoins could drain up to $6.6 TRILLION from the banking system.That's not "strengthening the dollar." That's redirecting the lifeblood of the real economy into government IOUs while starving Main Street of credit.And then there's the run risk nobody wants to discuss.Fed Governor Michael Barr said it yesterday:Stablecoin issuers have every incentive to chase higher returns on their reserves. But unlike banks, they CANNOT access the Fed's discount window. If a stablecoin run happens, issuers dump Treasuries into the market all at once.Stablecoin inflows push Treasury yields down 2-2.5 basis points. Outflows spike yields UP 6-8 basis points. Easy in. Ugly out.Meanwhile, Tether is the 800-pound gorilla. $185 billion in circulation. 550 million users. And until last week, it had never had a Big Four audit. It just hired KPMG after 12 years of operating with nothing but quarterly attestations.This is the entity Wall Street is celebrating as the future of dollar dominance. A company headquartered in El Salvador that fought transparency in court twice and LOST both times.Here's what Solomon and Mnuchin are actually telling you if you listen carefully:Stablecoins create captive demand for short-term US government debt. Foreign governments don't want to hold Treasuries anymore. So Washington's solution is to get 550 million retail users in emerging markets to hold them instead through a digital wrapper called a "stablecoin."The holders get zero interest. The GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits it. The issuers pocket the Treasury returns. Tether made $10 billion in profit last year. And the real economy loses credit while the government gets cheaper funding.This is a classic Wall Street pitch to sell financial innovation as progress:"This strengthens the system. This is good for everyone."Then the leverage builds, the risks concentrate, and the people who sold you on it are nowhere to be found when it unwinds.Stablecoins are NOT saving the dollar. They're a $315 billion shadow money market fund with no Fed backstop, no deposit insurance, and run dynamics that could destabilize the very Treasury market they're supposed to support.If you want to hold dollars, hold dollars. If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is...🥇 Get full access to The Noble Update at georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions* Shift to a more conservative portfolio posture: Reduce exposure to risk assets, particularly high-valuation tech, as the market is likely in the early stages of repricing for a slower-growth, higher-inflation reality. [00:02:30]* Rotate capital into hard assets and domestic infrastructure: Focus on U.S. energy producers, petrochemical companies benefiting from cheap natural gas, and domestic AI infrastructure plays, which are supported by the “America First” policy shift. [00:21:15]* Increase gold allocations as a strategic hedge: Treat gold not just as a short-term trade but as a core portfolio component to protect against dollar hegemony risks and the failure of bonds as a safe-haven asset. [00:23:50]* Implement hedges using volatility: Use volatility as an asset class to hedge portfolios, as traditional hedges like long-duration bonds may not provide the expected protection in this environment. [00:26:20]* Avoid speculative assets and “Momentum Bro” trades: Exit or short highly speculative assets (e.g., Shitcos, ARK-like strategies) as the liquidity and risk-on conditions that fueled them are no longer present. [00:36:30]2. Executive SummaryThe market is facing a regime shift driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sustained period of slower global growth, higher energy costs, and elevated inflation. The administration’s pullback from global conflict suggests a new, isolationist “America First” economic playbook focused on domestic manufacturing. This environment invalidates previous investment strategies. Investors should rotate from overvalued tech into U.S. energy, infrastructure, and gold, while using volatility as a hedge. The Fed’s ability to rescue markets is hampered by inflation, and a significant correction in risk assets is likely before any meaningful policy response is triggered.3. Key Takeaways and Practical Lessons1. Market Regime Change is Underway, Not a Transitory Event: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents a fundamental shift in global trade and energy security, moving the market from a “geopolitical risk premium” to a “new economic reality” of structurally higher costs.* Practical lesson: Re-evaluate long-term models that assumed open trade routes and stable energy prices; re-run valuations under a scenario of sustained $70-90 WTI and higher term premiums.2. The Old “Fed Put” is Broken: The Fed’s ability to bail out markets is constrained by sticky inflation and high energy prices; they will likely be late to cut rates, making a growth-driven recession more painful for stocks.* Practical lesson: Do not buy the dip expecting an immediate Fed response. Deploy capital only after a significant (25-30%) market correction, which would be the trigger for potential Fed intervention.3. Long-End Bonds are Not a Safe Haven: With rising deficits, a massive corporate capex call on capital, and global central banks diversifying away from Treasuries, the long bond is a source of risk, not a portfolio stabilizer.* Practical lesson: Replace long-duration Treasuries in a portfolio with a steepener trade (short long-end) or allocate that capital to gold, which benefits directly from dollar debasement concerns.4. The AI Boom is Morphing from a Tailwind to a Headwind: The transition from internally funded AI CapEx to debt-financed spending is crowding out the broader economy, while AI-driven labor displacement is a looming credit risk for white-collar employment and banking.* Practical lesson: Focus on AI enablers (semis, energy) that provide the “picks and shovels,” but reduce exposure to overvalued software names that face margin pressure from higher capital costs and potential demand destruction.5. Speculation is Entering a Death Phase: The environment of tight liquidity and rising risk-free rates is ending the era of speculative assets (meme stocks, shitcoins). The marginal buyer for these assets has evaporated.* Practical lesson: Close out long positions in high-beta, unprofitable “story” stocks. The trading dynamic will shift from chasing returns to capital preservation, making volatility selling strategies increasingly dangerous.Follow Craig here on X - @ces921 Watch on youtube below - Get full access to The Noble Update at georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

And that not to protect your retirement.But to fast-track trillion-dollar money-losing AI companies into your portfolio.Let me explain what's about to happen.SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public THIS YEAR.Combined expected market cap: roughly $3 TRILLION.SpaceX is targeting a June IPO at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation. It merged with xAI in February and plans to raise up to $50 billion - the largest IPO in American history.OpenAI is targeting Q4 2026. It just raised $110 billion at a $730 billion valuation from Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia. It projects a $14 billion LOSS this year. It doesn't expect to turn a profit until 2029 or 2030. It trades at 65 times revenue.Anthropic is valued at $380 billion. Also expected to list this year.Now here's where it gets dangerous for passive investors:From 2016 to 2025, the ENTIRE US IPO market raised $469 billion total. These 3 companies alone want to raise more than that in a single year.But it gets WORSE.S&P Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and FTSE Russell are ALL considering fast-track rules that would shove these companies into major indexes within DAYS of going public - bypassing the standard 12 month seasoning period.Roughly $24 trillion in passive funds is tied to the S&P 500 alone. Those funds MUST buy whatever gets added.So a company like OpenAI that's burning $14 billion a year, valued at 65x revenue, with no path to profitability for four years could become a mandatory holding in your 401k before it even reports a single quarterly earnings as a public company.Nasdaq is proposing a "Fast Entry" rule: inclusion after just 15 trading days. SpaceX reportedly made early index inclusion a CONDITION of choosing Nasdaq over the NYSE.The inmates are running the asylum.Index providers aren't rewriting rules because these companies earned their place. They're rewriting rules because SpaceX is too big to ignore and too lucrative to lose to a competing exchange.If all 10 of the largest venture-backed companies go public and get fast-tracked, their combined weight could reach 4.5% of the S&P 500 - more than the ENTIRE energy sector.Think about that.Companies that collectively lose billions per year could outweigh every oil and gas producer in America inside the most important retirement index on Earth.This is the passive indexation trap I've been warning about.You don't get to choose. You don't get to vote. The index committee decides, the ETFs execute, and your retirement savings follow orders.When the index is being engineered to absorb trillion-dollar speculative bets, the smartest move is to stop blindly following it.Own what you understand. Own what makes money. Own what's priced for reality, not fantasy.GOT GOLD? Get full access to The Noble Update at georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

Michael Cantrell, a balanced strategist weighing rate scenarios. Rick Bensinger, a market technician calling key trade levels. Michael Howell, a macro investor focused on liquidity cycles and commodities. They debate a fading global liquidity tide. Short sentences cover moving into energy and staples. They discuss gold as a hedge and agriculture via ETF plays. Technical levels and portfolio shifts finish the conversation.

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1. Strategic Actions and Decisions* Reduce exposure to technology and AI-related names: Exit or pare down positions in the “Magnificent 7” and software names, as they show deteriorating technical patterns and are considered overvalued. [12:36 - 13:19]* Dollar-cost average into an S&P 500 index fund for a core holding: For a foundational, low-maintenance portion of a portfolio, systematically buy an index fund, acknowledging that beating the market over time is exceptionally difficult. [16:05 - 16:31]* Maintain a defensive posture with high cash levels: Given the high conviction that valuations remain elevated and uncertainty is rising, hold significant cash reserves and avoid adding new positions until a clearer picture emerges. [20:06 - 20:26]* Rotate capital into the Energy sector: Increase allocations to energy stocks, including oil services and secondary equipment providers, viewing the sector’s low weighting and recent breakout as the beginning of a larger move. [17:45 - 22:39]* Add to gold and silver positions on weakness: Use the recent correction in precious metals as a buying opportunity, driven by washed-out sentiment indicators and bullish long-term fundamentals. [40:21 - 40:56]2. Executive SummaryWe brought together Michael Kramer, Dave Nicoski, Bob Coleman, and a few others to break down what's really happening under the surface. The takeaway? The regime is shifting. The easy money, tech-dominant playbook is over. We're looking at higher energy costs, persistent inflation, and fiscal instability that most of the market is still ignoring. The consensus in the room was clear: rotate out of overvalued tech and into energy and precious metals. The recent pullback in gold and silver? That's not the end of the trade—it's the entry point, especially with sentiment indicators washed out to levels we haven't seen in years. We're holding cash, staying defensive, and watching the leaders in energy and materials take the baton from tech.3. Key Takeaways and Practical Lessons1. Short-Term Price Action is Not a Signal of a Broken Thesis: The recent sharp correction in gold and silver is viewed as a healthy pullback in a long-term bull market, not the end of the trend, and is exacerbated by short-term dollar strength from fewer expected rate cuts.* Practical Lesson: Differentiate between price volatility that challenges a position and a fundamental change in the underlying thesis. Use corrections to add to positions where the long-term drivers (e.g., fiscal deficits) remain intact.2. Sentiment Indicators Are Flashing a Contrary Buy Signal: The gold miners bullish percent index has collapsed from the low 90s to 3.7, indicating extreme bearish sentiment, which historically occurs near market bottoms and presents a compelling buying opportunity.* Practical Lesson: Monitor sentiment indicators to gauge market extremes. When an asset class is universally hated and sentiment reaches historic lows, it often signals the selling is exhausted.3. The New Market Regime Favors Sectors with Relative Strength: Energy and materials sectors have been outperforming technology on a relative strength basis for months, with moves like Schlumberger versus Microsoft printing over 100% since November.* Practical Lesson: Let relative strength charts, not lagging fundamentals, guide sector allocation. Capital is rotating into energy and materials, and following these flows is more critical than trying to pick bottoms in falling sectors.4. Rising Energy Costs Will Impact Equity Valuations and Margins: Higher oil prices are already being priced into the bond market, leading to fewer expected rate cuts. This will compress valuations for high-multiple tech stocks and will pressure the profit margins of gold miners due to higher input costs.* Practical Lesson: Consider owning the physical commodity (gold/silver) over the miners to gain exposure to the trend without the added risk of compressed margins from rising energy and diesel costs.5. The Crowded Trade in Tech is a Source of Systemic Risk: The market’s concentration in a handful of tech names, which are now deploying massive CapEx into data centers, is creating a fragile setup where the index can go down while a few names are up, and vice versa.* Practical Lesson: Look beyond the index level to analyze sector and individual stock patterns. The presence of descending triangles in many leading stocks suggests a broader market weakness that passive index investing will not avoid.Follow Bob Coleman here on X - @profitsplusidFollow David Nicoski here on X - @davevermilionFollow Michael Kramer here on X - @MichaelMOTTCM Watch on Youtube Below - Get full access to The Noble Update at georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe