Carnegie Connects

The Palestinian national movement is in crisis. Divided between a Hamas-controlled Gaza and a Palestinian Authority that has lost credibility with the West Bank population it partially controls, the movement lacks not only cohesion but an effective strategy to bring about an end to Israeli occupation. Confronted by Israel's most right-wing fundamentalist government, which is committed to maintaining permanent control over most of the West Bank and Jerusalem, the movement is drifting with little more than symbolic support from the international community.What is the Palestinian strategy? If the two-state solution has failed, what is the Palestinian endgame and how do they mean to achieve it? What happens in the wake of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ presidency? And what can Palestinians realistically expect from the Arab world and the United States?Aaron David Miller sits down with Dr. Ashrawi to discuss these and other issues.

As Israel turns seventy-five, protests opposing the Netanyahu government's effort to overhaul and weaken Israel's judiciary enter their twentieth week, Israel confronts unprecedented internal challenges as Israeli-Palestinian clashes in Gaza and the West Bank intensify, and Iran's nuclear program continues unconstrained. What lies ahead for Israel and the Middle East at this critical moment?Aaron David Miller sits down with former Israeli prime minister and defense minister Ehud Barak for a wide-ranging conversation about Israel at seventy-five.

Can humanity compete in the critical race against climate change, or are we destined to succumb to a world of extreme heat, flooding, drought, and irrevocable damage to the planet’s seas and biosphere? The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that time is running out but holds out hope of averting the worst. Will UN efforts like COP summits succeed soon enough? If not, who or what will lead the way? And as the climate emergency accelerates, what can the world expect from its largest emitters, China and the United States?U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change Sue Biniaz joins Aaron David Miller to discuss.

Well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Biden cast the main dynamic of the 21st century as a struggle between the forces of democracy and autocracy. Putin’s aggression seemed to tether Biden’s rhetoric to the bloody reality of the most serious crisis in Europe since the end of the cold war. But with two thirds of the world’s population residing in countries that have not signed on to pro-active sanctions against Russia, is the democracy versus authoritarian framing the most effective one? Why isn’t the United States and much of the West’s message getting though? Why are so many nations hedging? And what are the prospects for a resurgence of democratic systems against the backdrop of recent democratic backsliding? What concrete steps can the U.S. and its democratic allies take to support fledgling and fragile democracies?Atlantic staff writer and author Anne Applebaum joins Aaron to discuss. 

America’s foreign policy challenges abound. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has evolved into a seemingly endless war of attrition in which neither side appears poised to win decisively. Relations between the United States and China are at their worst in decades with little discernible pathway to a more productive relationship. North Korea flexes its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities while Iran expands its enrichment capacity to near weapons-grade level. Meanwhile, international institutions and multilateral cooperation seem ill equipped to deal effectively with the transnational challenges of climate, a future pandemic, and the preservation of biodiversity. At home, domestic politics are playing an influential role in shaping U.S. foreign policy, for better or worse. Amid so much geopolitical complexity and so many crises, what are the key elements for an effective and successful foreign policy?Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with two former national security advisors to discuss America’s role in this challenging and changing world.

Wars evolve in one of two ways—one side decisively defeats the other, or both sides, realizing that total victory is unattainable, compromise on a temporary or permanent deal to end the fighting. In Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, neither scenario is currently in play as Moscow and Kyiv plan fresh offensives and counteroffensives in 2023 along the 600-mile battlefront. How are Putin and Zelenskyy recalibrating their military strategies in the new year? How would Russia react if Ukraine wins more ground and is in striking distance of Crimea? How would Chinese military assistance impact the battlefield balance? And what circumstances might produce a Western military confrontation with Russia? Aaron welcomes Russian military expert Michael Kofman from CNA to discuss how the battlefield in Ukraine is shaping up in 2023.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

As the war in Ukraine nears its one-year anniversary, the coming months could prove decisive in a conflict that has become a war of attrition. The possibility of any negotiation in the near future appears dim as rumors spread of massive Russian and Ukrainian offensives. Kyiv and its Western partners are scrambling to bolster the Ukrainian military with tanks, air defense, and other capabilities. How does the Biden administration view the effectiveness and sustainability of its overall strategy? And how can Ukrainian and Western leaders persuade Putin that he is wrong to pin his hopes on simply outlasting his opponents?Aaron sits down in conversation with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland to discuss these and other issues.     Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations. 

The inauguration of the most right-wing fundamentalist government in Israel’s history poses unprecedented and extraordinary challenges. Just the other week, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government introduced new legislation that would weaken the judiciary’s independence. Meanwhile, the new government‘s hardline policies toward the Palestinians have the potential to jeopardize its relationships with its Arab neighbors. Is Israel’s democracy in danger with these new judicial reforms? How will the government’s policies on the West Bank and Jerusalem impact relations with the Palestinians and other Arab states? And what’s the trajectory of U.S.-Israeli relations moving forward? Aaron sits down with the former Israeli vice prime minister and minister of foreign affairs and justice Tzipi Livni to discuss these and other issues.

Russia’s war against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. Almost a year into the conflict, one of the most intriguing questions is how Russia’s economy has managed to stave off a destabilizing economic crisis in the face of unprecedented economic sanctions. How has the Russian economy survived? What has the impact of sanctions been on the Russian public? And can Russia continue to thwart international pressure to choke off the oil revenues that fuel the war effort in Ukraine?Aaron is joined by the Financial Times’ Polina Ivanova, an investigative journalist who covers Russia, Ukraine, and Central Asia and has focused on how Russia’s economy has learned to adapt over the last year. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

The U.S.-China relationship will figure prominently in global politics for decades to come. Getting China right, to the extent that’s possible, is critically important both to minimize the chances of conflict and maximize potential cooperation. Despite its rising power, China is also wrestling with sluggish growth, an aging population, and a failed pandemic policy that has sparked backlash against President Xi’s leadership. Is Taiwan squarely in Beijing’s crosshairs today? How does Xi envision his relationship with Biden and the United States in the years to come? And what do American policymakers miss when it comes to China and its authoritarian leader?Aaron David Miller is joined by David Rennie, the Economist’s Beijing bureau chief and Chaguan columnist, to discuss these and other issues. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.