China Observers

On the sidelines of the Beijing Olympics, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met for the 38th time, issuing a joint statement that may well become a major milestone in bilateral ties. The lone CEE President in attendance upon this momentous occasion was Polish President Andrzej Duda, who know finds his nation dealing with an influx of refugees and a potential security crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Worse yet for the Polish leader, China was apparently cognizant of Russia's designs upon its neighboring nation even as Duda attended the games.  As the status of Sino-Russian ties remains somewhat uncertain and the potential for military aid by China to Russia now becomes a serious threat, Alicja Bachulska joins the podcast to offer the Polish perspective on the apparent "new era" in international relations that both Beijing and Moscow appear emboldened to pursue, a crucial viewpoint given this is making a significant impact quite close to Poland's borders and, as Bachulska points out, in the information space on home soil. This month's guest: Alicja Bachulska, China analyst at the Asia Research Centre, War Studies University in Warsaw and MapInfluenCE China analyst.  Show Notes: Poland’s Duda looks to thwart Moscow-Beijing axis on Ukraine Amid Ukraine Tensions, Moscow and Beijing Grow Closer How Moscow and Beijing Weave Tales for Warsaw: The Cases of Sputnik and China Radio International CHOICE Analysts Offer CEE Perspectives on China-Russia Ties

While purported to be an apolitical showcase of athletics, free from the troubles of the present geopolitical climate, the Beijing Olympics appear to be off to an inauspicious start even before the opening ceremony.  Leading up to the games, several countries including the US, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Belgium, and Denmark, as well as CEE nations like Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia have announced a diplomatic boycott of the games. Further, New Zealand, Sweden, The Netherlands, Slovenia, and Austria have backed away from sending representation on COVID grounds.  As such, state propaganda that most definitely sought to promote the positive view of China at a pivotal point in its history will be diminished. As the games kick-off, the presentation amidst the political overhang looks as though it may be just as interesting to observe as the athletics itself. Malin Oud, head of the Raoul Wallenberg Institute's Stockholm office and Team Leader of its Economic Globalization and Human Rights thematic area joins the podcast to outline all of the issues and implications. This Month's Guest Malin Oud, Head of the Raoul Wallenberg Institute's Stockholm office and Team Leader of its Economic Globalization and Human Rights thematic area, board member at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS).  Show Notes Exploring China’s Push for a New World Order At the Beijing Olympics, Sport is Inevitably Political Who's Boycotting the Olympics? The Transformation of External Propaganda to Public Diplomacy: From the Olympic Games to the World Expo (CN)

Via the 16+1 platform, the Belt and Road, the Digital Silk Road, and more, there is no shortage of Chinese investment initiatives touching the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. This includes infrastructure projects dotting the Western Balkans, data centers in Hungary, and significant FDI directed at strategically important EU nations like Poland. Over their life span, these investments have been met with both adulation and excoriation.  Indeed, many of the projects that were once welcomed as life-saving investments, adding to much needed FDI inflows in the wake of the Great Recession and European debt crisis. Yet, especially as investment is wielded as a coercive instrument, many European partners are now increasingly skeptical of Chinese investment, especially in light of the political price tags now clearly attached. As such, assessing China's incentives and aims for investment in the CEE region are of paramount importance. That task will be tackled in the latest Voice for CHOICE podcast. Make the right CHOICE and tune in! This month's guest: Ágnes Szunomár, Head of the Research Group on Development Economics at the Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungary Show notes: China Pulls the Economic Coercion Card Against Lithuania Central Europe for Sale: The Politics of China's Influence Montenegro’s Debt Success Orphaned at Birth China’s Sticks and Carrots in Central Europe: The Logic and Power of Chinese Influence

While it has faded from the popular discourse a bit in recent months, the turn of the year will quickly catapult Central and Eastern European nations to another meeting with the China via the recently downsized 16+1 mechanism.  The upcoming convening of nations is certainly due to attract attention as the withdrawal from the format by Lithuania and lower level representation via numerous states now inching closer to Taiwan has thrown the format into turmoil. However, the format is not entirely unique and there are numerous lessons that CEE China-watchers can draw from China's broader efforts to court nations on the international periphery and broader global south. Further, China will now have to compete for the attention of CEE nations with other formats, a major discussion of the ensuing podcast. To observe this broader picture, Jakub Jakóbowski, senior fellow with the OSW China Program and coordinator of the  Connectivity in Eurasia project, joins the latest episode.  Make the right CHOICE and tune in! This month's guest: Jakub Jakóbowski, senior fellow with the OSW China Program and coordinator of the  Connectivity in Eurasia project Show notes:  Chinese-led Regional Multilateralism in Central and Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America: 16 + 1, FOCAC, and CCF China, the 17+1 Platform, and Taiwan – a ‘New Stage’? Has Xi Jinping Just Presided Over the Last 17+1 Summit? Trójmorze jako odpowiedź Europy Środkowej na globalne i unijne wyzwania (PL)

Lithuania has certainly not been shy about bucking the status quo in terms of relations with Beijing. Whether it be committing to a fight for freedom “from Belarus to Taiwan”, a withdrawal from the 17+1 format, or a resolution on the Uyghur situation in China, the small Baltic nations has been eager to make its voice heard. As of late, this has been most vocally displayed in terms of tighter ties with Taiwan. This culminated in the summer, with the announcement that Taiwan is opening its representative office in Vilnius and will utilize its name, Taiwan, rather than other nomenclature typically utilized to placate the One China Policy.  Of course, this has been met with fiery criticism from prominent Chinese diplomats and state media outlets, warning of dire consequences. In the latest episode, we sit down with two experts on both international relations and economics to assess Lithuania's trajectory as of late as well as the potential for China's punishment. This Month’s Guests:  Konstantinas Andrijauskas, Associate Professor of Asian Studies and International Politics at Vilnius University Vilém Semerák, Senior Lecturer, Institute of Economic Studies at Charles University in Prague. Economic Researcher, CERGE-EI. Show Notes: Taiwan, Lithuania, and a Small Country’s Big Challenge to Beijing Taiwan and Lithuania's Ties Grow Tighter China, Russia can cooperate to punish Lithuania: Global Times editorial Taiwan visit shows Czech Republic can resist China retaliation

Hungary has had its share of issues as of late, ranging from its import of Chinese vaccines sans EMA approval, to blockage of EU statements on human rights abuses in China, to the politically problematic (and quite pricey) establishment of Fudan University's campus in Budapest. Indeed, for the very first time, China is shaping up to be a key political issue for the upcoming elections in 2022 for the Central European nation. To get a handle on all of the issues swirling around Prime Minister Orban at this critical time, his promotion of pro-China policies, and the public sentiment surrounding Sino-Hungarian relations, Hungarian journalist and researcher Szabolcs Panyi joined the latest Voice for CHOICE podcast. This Month's Guest: Szabolcs Panyi, Investigative journalist at Hungarian independent journal Direkt36, three time Soma Award winner for best Hungarian investigative journalism in 2015, 2016 and 2020, and founder of VSquare, a cross-border investigative journalism initiative in the Visegrád region. Show Notes: Hungary's Pro-China Policy is Coming Under Fire The Fight Over Fudan: A Chinese University in Budapest Sparks Reckoning for Sino-Hungarian Relations The Logic of China’s Vaccine Diplomacy

Human rights are increasingly taking center stage in Sino-European relations, supplanting the economic impacts that had previously held primacy. Indeed, as quickly as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese FDI, and the 17+1 platform ignited the hopes of the Central European region and its leaders, the human rights issue and revelations from the Xinjiang region have just as quickly soured public opinion. At the 32nd anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre, there are certainly no fewer human rights issues to tackle beyond just Xinjiang, but Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and even beyond China's generally accepted borders. To parse the important aspects of human rights issues' heightened profile, Eyck Freymann joins the latest episode to add his opinion on the trajectory of this topic as well as insights on the transatlantic angle in the human rights debate on China. This month’s show features analysis from: Eyck Freymann: Author, One Belt, One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World (Harvard, 2020), Henry Scholar (University of Cambridge), Joseph Fletcher Prize Winner (Harvard University), Director of Indo-Pacific at Greenmantle. Show Notes: EU can't work like this, German official says after Hungary blocks China statement Relocate the Olympics or Condone Genocide Europe and China are Breaking Over Human Rights Survey: Europeans’ views of China in the age of COVID-19 One Belt, One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World  This podcast is hosted by Kevin Curran

As Serbia continues to pursue a multi-vector strategy that heavily relies upon China and China itself further highlights cooperation in the Balkans not only on vaccines, but in infrastructure investment along the Belt and Road, as it did in the most recent 17+1 summit, curious eyes are increasingly drawn to China's activities in the region. However, the cooperation across the broader Western Balkan region has not been without issues, especially as activists complain of environmental damage along China's flagship project in the Balkans and governments, like that of Montenegro, fall into insurmountable debt to China’s Exim Bank. To assess the level of threat that each of China's projects across the Western Balkans pose, CSIS senior fellow Jonathan Hillman and his colleagues devised a flag system by which each project can be judged and the major indicators that onlookers should be wary of when judging each project. To hear the results of the study and the prospects for China's continued cooperation with Western Balkan nations, make the right choice and tune in! This month’s show features analysis from: Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow, Economics Program, and Director, Reconnecting Asia Project Show Notes Red Flags: Triaging China's Projects in the Western Balkans Serbia Turns Multi-Vector Foreign Policy into Development Model… With China’s Help China's Push to Control Pacific Cable Subsea Cables Empty Shell No More, CHOICE’s groundbreaking paper on 17+1 Full text of Xi Jinping’s 17+1 Keynote Speech This podcast is hosted by Kevin Curran

Janka Oertel and Kevin Curran Discuss the recent CAI, climate policy, the 17+1 keynote from Xi Jinping, and more.

Special Double Episode Featuring Janka Oertel and Isabel Hilton on China and climate policy.