BMO Views from the North

Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from BMO Economics, delves into the state of the Canadian housing market. He discusses the sharp decline in property values, particularly in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver, and the challenges posed by rising interest rates. Kavcic highlights the diverging regional trends, revealing healthy activity in some areas despite overall struggles. He also addresses the role of non-permanent residents, affordability issues, and the need for housing strategies focused on family needs rather than just unit quantity.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO’s OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to discuss the Bank of Canada’s decision to stay on hold this week, where monetary policy is headed for the rest of 2025, and the bigger picture for inflation and interest rates. As always, all feedback is welcome.

BMO hosted its 12th annual Government, Reserve & Asset Managers Conference last week in Toronto. I had the privilege of moderating a panel titled "Capital Flows in a Time of Stress". The panel featured Manmit Pandori, MD, Head of Tactical & Accrual Trading at BMO CM, Avi Hooper, Senior Advisor at ABP Invest, and Matthew Emde, Director General, Funds Management, Government of Canada. This episode of Views from the North is a recording of the panel that was held on the morning of May 8th.   Thank you for listening. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO’s Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the ongoing tariff drama, last week’s Bank of Canada decision to pause and whether more rate cuts are coming, how uncertainty is impacting investors, and his favourite trade ideas.As always, all feedback is welcome.  

In this episode, Manmit Pandori, head of tactical and accrual trading at BMO, joins me to discuss President Trump's tariff announcement, the financial market reaction, how the macro backdrop might unfold, and how he is managing risk in this highly volatile and uncertain world.As always, all feedback is welcome. 

In this episode, Jeff Oland, part of BMO’s Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss this week’s hot CPI report and whether everyone (including the Bank of Canada) has inflation wrong, how fiscal policy could evolve over the coming year, the outlook for interest rates and opportunities in the bond market.As always, all feedback is welcome. 

In this episode, Chris D’Onofrio, one of BMO’s Canadian dollar swap traders, joins me to discuss the on again/off again tariff threats, swap spreads, the upcoming Bank of Canada policy announcement, and his favourite trades.As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO’s head of FICC Investor Sales Canada, joins me to discuss the wild events of the past week, how tariffs could evolve, and what it could mean for the Bank of Canada.As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, the Honourable Scott Brison, BMO Vice-Chair and a former Member of Parliament, joins me to discuss Canada’s political backdrop. Scott outlines the current state of the government amid President Trump’s tariff threats, his experiences with some of Canada’s key political figures ahead of what could be a spring election, and what’s needed to improve persistently weak productivity.Following the interview with Mr. Brison, I provide a quick take on my expectations for next week’s Bank of Canada policy announcement, and my favourite trade ideas.As always, all feedback is welcome.  Episode Timecodes: 00:00 - Introduction 01:02 - Interview with the Honourable Scott Brison 42:39 - Preview of next week's Bank of Canada's policy decision

In this discussion, Andrew Wallace, a key member of BMO’s Government of Canada bond trading team, dives into the economic landscape of 2025. He shares insights on the current bond market dynamics and explores how central bank policies and political developments might shape fiscal strategies. Andrew also highlights trends in the mortgage market and consumer spending behavior during the holiday season. With a focus on trading strategies for Canadian bonds, he provides a detailed look at how market conditions could evolve in the coming year.