Airline Weekly Lounge

Wherever you go in the airline industry, you’re never too far from Singapore Airlines, a carrier that played a primary role in—count ‘em— four of the bigger storylines last week. Singapore is pulling out of Brazil. In India, Singapore will likely be a key beneficiary of the end of the 5/20 rule. Singapore and United oddly seem to be rumbling on a San Francisco route. And Virgin Australia is asking Singapore and other investors for more money. In non-Singaporean news, United Airlines unveiled a plan to generate $3 billion in value. The U.K. is voting on whether to leave the European Union and take its enormous aviation market along with it. We talk about whether Frontier’s day-of-week-specific flying signals a change in approach for the airline. And, lastly, is Alaska really considering keeping the Virgin America brand?

Scandinavia’s SAS posted a pretty rough quarter despite huge tailwinds from its healthy home economy and cheap fuel. Fierce competition, labor concerns and operational problems all share the blame. Is SAS’s long-haul strategy the answer? Or will it take a merger? Meanwhile in Africa, Fastjet is failing fast, posting an ugly 2015 full-year result. Clearly, it is tough to be a start-up airline on a continent rife with bureaucracy and protectionism. The turboprop carrier Flybe achieved a small annual profit, which was a big deal. Will the airline’s resurgence continue? And for U.S. carriers Delta, American, United and JetBlue, unit revenue declines haven’t stopped—there was hope they would’ve by now—and costs have stopped falling. That’s a recipe for margin pressure.

United last week revealed its new premium experience named Polaris, which includes its business class cabin. Ironically, the big design features in the cabin are all about missing the experience, because United wants its passengers to sleep right through it. But in addition to being optimized for sleep, the cabin is also optimized for something else: seat density. Does United have the right formula here? Also, how does Polaris compare to American’s and Delta’s business classes? Low oil prices are good for airlines in general, but are they good for airlines in oil markets? In this episode we do a quick survey of oil markets around the world and how their airlines are faring. Mexico’s Interjet posted a tepid profit in the first quarter. And American Airlines made a huge change to its loyalty program that was, well, yawn inducing.

Ryanair is like a runaway train, in that nothing seems to be able to stop it. Despite unfavorable hedges, terrorism, air traffic control strikes and plenty of economic weakness, the airline still managed to turn a profit during the historically weak first quarter. A 6% operating margin never looked so good. How did Ryanair’s performance compare to that of Wizz Air and easyJet—two airlines that also had solid off-peak quarters? Also, with all three of those airlines growing, when will they start stepping on each other’s toes? Outside Europe, China’s HNA Aviation is purchasing a piece of the struggling Virgin Australia. Is it a smart move? Plus we have an optimistic take on the important, even if not-so-interesting, TSA situation in the U.S.  

Why are we seeing such different results from the two big Korean airlines? Korean Air again overcame systemic challenges to deliver a standout performance in the first quarter. And although the fuel situation certainly helped, the story wasn’t only about fuel. If you don’t believe us, just ask Korean’s chief rival Asiana, who struggled mightily in the same quarter. And although there’s no sign of a joint venture happening between Korean Air and Delta, we discuss it anyway, because that’s how we are. Terrorism is—for good reason—on the minds of airlines around the world right now. It’s wreaking havoc on the balance sheet of Turkey’s Pegasus, which is losing a lot of money. But terrorism might be having the opposite effect for Thai Airways, which has made a brilliant return to profitability. We touch on SpiceJet, a comeback story in its own right. And, of course, we talk about what last week’s horrible crash means for Egyptair in the longer run.

Emirates last week posted an operating margin nearing 10% for its fiscal year. That’s significantly better than the 7% the year before and a whole lot better than the 5%, 4%, and 3% posted in the years prior to that. Is the airline permanently out of its funk? Turkish Airlines meanwhile is struggling in the face of serious revenue declines brought on by fears of terrorism, among other things. To make matters worse, costs are rising too, which is particularly nasty when combined with low revenues. Still, Turkish remains undeterred if its 19% capacity growth rate is any indication. By the way, is such growth sustainable? Plus we check in on two very sick airlines, Gol and Air Berlin. And Frontier posted a mediocre Q4 in what was otherwise a terrific year.

Is growing Eurowings a safe bet? Lufthansa’s low-cost unit had a rough first quarter and that might not be the last. Eurowings is growing like gangbusters, propelling itself into the teeth of a crowded airline market and doing so with an unproven low-cost longhaul model. Lufthansa’s competitor Air France/KLM meanwhile posted a first-quarter loss, pulled down by its own low-cost unit Transavia. Perhaps a new CEO can turn things around. Meanwhile, JetBlue presumably wants nothing to turn around as it posted a 22% operating margin in Q1, which was once considered a weak quarter in the U.S. airline industry. Nonetheless, JetBlue is reportedly considering Bombardier’s CSeries. Would it be a good fit?

Delta’s new CEO Ed Bastian thinks it’s great that the competition is trying to catch up to Delta in terms of operational performance. He also says, without hesitation, that the competition—namely American Airlines—won’t catch his airline and makes the case in this 30-minute interview. The interview covers a lot of ground and touches on Delta’s fleet philosophy, its network and its joint ventures around the world. Other topics include online travel agencies, fuel hedging and the SkyMiles program. We even broach what some have called Delta’s arrogance, or as Bastian refers to it, the airline’s “maverick style.” And we learn the real reason Korean Air and Delta haven’t formed a joint venture—Bastian’s response was something we’ve never heard before.

While Delta, American and United have all seen both revenues and costs dropping, Southwest and Alaska just experienced the opposite in the first quarter. In fact, Southwest and Alaska rode a wave of rising revenues (say that three times fast) and rising costs to fantastic profits—and they did it in the normally sluggish Q1, no less. Speaking of American, how serious is the airline’s declining revenue, which is getting dinged by Southwest in Dallas and bruised by the economy in Brazil? Meanwhile, United is getting roughed up in Asia and simply hammered in Houston. Continuing to underperform its peers, United is making a change to its board. Will it help? And we raise a mai tai to Hawaiian Airlines, which posted a breezy Q1 in its own right.

Here’s a simple recipe for success: Make all the right moves in all the right places. Whether overseas or in the U.S., Delta has managed to avoid the pockets of pain being experienced by its U.S. peers, who have even been successful in their own right. Also, if one of the most successful airline in the world places a CSeries order, will it change the momentum of that aircraft program? TAP Portugal lost money in 2015—a big deal with fuel prices so low—and it’s impacting other airlines. One of those is Azul, a big investor in TAP, and Azul, being a Brazilian carrier, doesn’t need another headache right now. And through the miracle medium that is the lightning round, we look at the 2015 revenues and profitability of airlines around the world.