Airline Weekly Lounge

Qantas continues to romp. In the first half of 2018, the flying kangaroo posted a 9% profit margin—one point better than in the same period last year. And with that, Qantas is working on its fourth consecutive calendar year with double-digit margins. Despite more exposure to rising fuel prices, Air New Zealand still mostly kept pace. Virgin Australia, meanwhile, continues to miss out on Australasia’s booming airline sector. Scandinavia’s SAS appears to be having a great summer, which of course it will need if it’s going to have merely a good year. In India, Jet Airways is facing severe pressure. Qatar Airways is enduring a blockade that’s now more than a year old. Lastly, we explore this question: Have airline loyalty programs peaked?

Revenues and margins improved for Cathay Pacific in the first half of 2018, and the second half is usually better for Cathay. Still, will it be enough to lift the Hong Kong carrier out of its malaise? Fuel costs dented Singapore Airlines’ Q2 results, which were similarly mediocre to Cathay’s. VietJet’s soaring growth is helping it control unit costs and deliver solid profits. Also delivering solid profits was Cebu Pacific, however, those profits came amid a huge margin decline. Turkish Airlines is now existing amid a currency crisis, but it’s weathering it surprisingly well. Ethiopian Airlines is making money and has plans to make more. Icelandair is feeling the chill of too much capacity in Reykjavik. And JetBlue is charting new territory in charging for bags.

Thanks to rising costs, it’s no surprise profits have declined at Air Canada and WestJet. But rising costs alone don’t explain how these Canadian carriers continue to consistently underperform their U.S. peers by a noticeable margin. Meanwhile in Europe, carriers like Ryanair, Aer Lingus, British Airways, Lufthansa, Swiss and others are putting up numbers very much like their U.S. counterparts. Unfortunately, Air France is not one of those carriers, as that airline nearly lost money in the usually healthy second quarter, and that reduced the Air France/KLM group result to a scant 5% operating profit margin. Meanwhile, the Lufthansa group is making great strides, posting an 11% second-quarter margin, which is quite comparable to IAG’s 13.5%.

So far all U.S. carriers have reported shrinking year-over-year profits in the second quarter. But nobody’s margin decline was worse than that of JetBlue, which posted a 9% operating margin, down from 19% the year before. Allegiant had the best margin of the bunch, narrowly besting Southwest and Delta, both of which had shining quarters. American’s quarter was marred by its mishandling of basic economy, plus it wasn’t helped by its domestic-heavy network. Alaska has been lacking the right product to take advantage of booming premium demand in the transcon market. Spirit, while still quite profitable, is learning to live in a world where big carriers now pay attention to it. Hawaiian couldn’t have been happy with its nine-point margin decline. Speaking of happy—that might describe United, which showed surprising resilience in Q2.

Rising costs aren’t keeping Delta down. Delta overcame a 33% year-over-year increase in fuel costs to produce more than $1.2b in net profits (excluding special items) and a handsome 16% quarterly operating margin. In fact, despite the increased costs, Delta almost matched last year’s 18% Q2 margin. And the airline thinks it can return to improving margins by year’s end. Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine Norwegian’s results being more different. Norwegian chalked up a negative 3% operating profit margin, a ghastly result for the usually strong second quarter. JetBlue ordered CS300s—except now we’re calling them A220-300s. That deal surely made Airbus and its new partner Bombardier happy. In turn, Boeing is partnering with Embraer. What does this shakeup to the aircraft manufacturer space mean?

Frontier Airlines has had one of the most topsy-turvy histories of any airline, and its first-quarter earnings report was no exception. Sporting a wild animal on each tail, the airline has been soaring in recent years. In 2017, Frontier had the seventh best operating profit margin in the world. But something happened in Q1 2018, as its margin was cut in half. Meanwhile, Air France/KLM searches for a CEO. Also, how important is it that United Airlines—by a wide margin—gets more revenue from Asia than Delta and American? Norwegian continues to lose money and remains, for the moment, without a buyer to bail it out. But at least Norwegian isn’t Fastjet, which notched a negative 55% operating profit margin in 2017.

Things haven’t gotten better in Mexico. Although Aeroméxico is at least coping better than its domestic competitors, all of which posted negative first-quarter margins in the double-digits. To make matters worse, construction of Mexico City’s much-needed new airport might be suspended as soon as July. North of the border, Delta and Southwest are seeing more cost pressures in the second quarter. Lastly, America is getting a new airline called Moxy. Adding to the excitement is that the man behind the project, David Neeleman, is known for inventive business models such as JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul. Sure enough, from what we know, Moxy appears to have some unique qualities.

Despite a 29% year-over-year increase to its labor costs, Ryanair still posted a positive profit margin in the first quarter. Ryan’s eastern European counterpart, Wizz Air, meanwhile faced an even more daunting 43% rise in labor costs and handled it with equal aplomb. Scandinavian Airlines is plodding along, but so are a lot of other legacy carriers in Europe. For the moment, that’s okay. Doing much less than okay is El Al, an airline suffering a big loss in its first quarter despite Tel Aviv enjoying terrific growth in tourism. In the U.S., Delta and United say they don’t fear high oil prices or low-cost longhaul carriers. Should they? Lastly, airBaltic looks for a suitor, and Aeroflot takes a step backward.

For the moment, WestJet is the more profitable carrier. But in recent years, Air Canada has closed the gap and, in the first quarter of 2018, we see signs that Air Canada—after years of giving chase—might overtake its long-dominant rival. Emirates appears to be emerging from its malaise, but can it return to its former glory? AirFrance/KLM continues to struggle with its unions. Lufthansa had its best first quarter in a decade. And IAG, the airline group that includes British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus and Level, continues to dazzle. However, IAG’s brilliance hasn’t proven alluring enough to capture more than 5% of Norwegian.

Revenues for U.S. carriers remained terrifically healthy in the first quarter, and everybody made money. But rising labor and fuel costs generally shrunk year-over-year profit margins. United, which continues to trail Delta and American in profitability, did a pretty good job of preserving its margin. Profits slid a bit more at American, but it was especially buoyant in Latin America, where AA is the leading U.S. carrier. One airline that saw rather grisly margin deterioration was Alaska as fuel, labor and maintenance cost increases severely outpaced revenues. JetBlue and Spirit both did okay, but one was happier than the other. Southwest and Hawaiian posted handsome 12% margins in the off-peak quarter. Meanwhile, Allegiant was in a class by itself, posting a 19% first-quarter profit margin.