Unexpected Points

Find Josh’s Buy Low model on his substack This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.comYou can watch the entire episode for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

See the Week 1 NFL quarterback rankings based on Bayesian updating and adjusted EPA efficiency. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.comWatch the whole podcast on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

The latest Deshaun Watson restructure gives us an opportunity to talk about the emerging financial alchemy teams are employing, especially with quarterback contracts. I talk through how the Watson deal and general restructures allow teams to roster slightly better teams overall, due to the compounding rise of cap cost and shifting burdens into the future. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.comFind the full pod for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.Read Mike’s QB Tiers article and follow him on twitter.

Josh Hermsmeyer joins the pod for the weekly livestream to talk:* If Drake Maye should start, and generally what we learn from the preseason* How the Cowboys played the last few drafts so poorly at WR and lost all leverage with CeeDee Lamb* A bet on the kick-return rate for the 2024: Herms takes under 40%, Kevin takes the over* Strong analysis from the NFL’s Michael Lopez and Tom Bliss on the minimal benefit of bye weeks during the regular season This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin digs into the advanced stats, worries and hopes for * The Steelers QB “battle” between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields* All the top QB picks in 2024* Is Caleb Williams playing as well as his social media highlights?* Jayden Daniels adjusted to a very different Kliff Kingsbury scheme* Drake Maye showing a lot of promise with big throws* Bo Nix continuing to lead the most efficiency offense of the preseason This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.comProjections guru Mike Leone of Establish the Run joins the pod to talk through* The JJ McCarthy injury, what it means for his future and the more immediate implications for his teammates* We also discuss Mike's process forming seasonal and weekly projections* What are the most common mistakes making mental projections* How often he uses intuition or his gut to …

Kevin discusses the (little) meaningful information from Week 1 of the NFL preseason Plus, he explain how to best decide on Week 1 starters with competing veterans of less caliber, or when a top-12 rookie is in the mix. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe