Inflection Point

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the outlook for inflation in 2023. On the back of a 6.4% YoY CPI, could inflation remain sticky, or will the year ahead be met with a sharp decline in inflation?As "animal spirits" persist in markets, despite the yield curve repricing higher, and the terminal rate along with it, why are markets so intent on fighting the Fed? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss wether the Fed will be able to achieve their soft landing.Focusing on the housing market, Warren describes how this is the key signal to watch for a hard vs soft landing in the U.S economy. Warren then walks through the Fed's quantitative tightening program and how this could effect markets in 2023. As short term bullish technicals emerge, how should investors position if the long term fundamentals are bearish?Finally, with an expertise in energy markets, Warren walks through "the energy trade" of the 2022, and how it could perform into 2023. As many headwinds remain for energy supply, what implications will China's economy reopening have for the global energy market? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPiesFollow 3Fourteen Research: https://twitter.com/3F_ResearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:49) How Likely Is A Soft Landing?(08:28) Quantitative Tightening(16:34) Preparing For A Fed Pause/Pivot(20:00) Blockworks Research(20:49) Bullish Technicals vs Bearish Fundamentals(27:32) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2023(31:09) Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets(34:18) Warren's Earnings Forecast(38:29) Permissionless 2023(39:13) The Effect Of China Reopening(44:50) How Energy Drove Inflation(48:50) Cycles Take Time To Play Out--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the SEC crackdown on crypto as Kraken settles for a $30 million fine and agrees to stop it's staking operation. Mark states "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win". As the pressure ramps up on U.S crypto companies, what will this mean for the future of the industry? --Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Peter Boockvar Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the U.S economy.As markets have rallied to start the year, Peter walks through the state of the U.S economy. With inflation having seemingly peaked, Powell seems confident that disinflation will be the path ahead for 2023. Peter breaks down Powell's recent comments at the press conference last week before discussing how interest rates being "higher for longer" will effect corporate & household balance sheets and wether the Fed will get their soft landing. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Peter: https://twitter.com/pboockvarFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/onthemargin *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Referenced In The Show:All Eyes On Inflation: "A Pause Is Not A Pivot" | Weekly Round Up: https://open.spotify.com/episode/50ABz990nXRh2NEXU6aVRd?si=3b9a53f609314f94The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/--Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction(00:35) A Breakdown of The U.S Economy (02:40) Why Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets (08:45) Will Powell Get His Soft Landing? (14:12) Public Ad(15:59) Rates Will Remain Higher For Longer(22:46) The Chinese Reopening (27:00) The Path Ahead For Inflation (30:40) Permissionless Announcement (31:24) Preparing For A Recession (38:50) Breaking Down Earnings (46:16) "The Market Is Partying Like It's 2021"--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the week of central bank rate hikes and press conferences. With the Fed, BoE & ECB continuing to raise interest rates, markets attempted to price in an eventual pause in rate hikes.With the S&P 500 up roughly 7% through January 2023, and the most speculative of names rallying the most, reminiscent of 2021, we walk through the liquidity cycle up trend and how the loosening of financial conditions has eased downward pressure on the market to start off the new year. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February.Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation.--Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code MARGIN10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down GDP and earning expectations. US GDP just came in above expectations at 2.9%. Is a soft landing possible, or is the economy holding on by a thread? Mark gives his convincing arguments for the latter.We also take a deep dive into the housing market, corporate earnings, overvalued tech stocks and why all eyes are on Japan. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Charles Edwards Founder of Capriole Investments joins the show to discuss Bitcoin's place in the current macro cycle. We start with the state of macro and then dive into what inflation, interest rates and the Fed's actions mean for Bitcoin. We hit on frameworks for valuing BTC, Bitcoin's monetary policy and what metrics investors should be watching.Finally, we close with a conversation on Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge and long-term outlook!--Follow Charles: https://twitter.com/caprioleioFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Referenced In The Show:Capriole's websitehttps://capriole.com/Capriole's newsletterhttps://capriole.com/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:54) The Current Macro Environment(06:41) Crypto’s Changing Sentiment(11:16) Frameworks for Valuing BTC(14:41) Miner Capitulation(22:44) Permissionless Ad(23:29) Bitcoin vs Ethereum(33:34) A Fed Pivot?(41:10) 2023 Outlook(43:51) Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge(47:34) Bitcoin’s NASDAQ Correlation--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark are joined by James Davolos Portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics for a debate on all things inflation. At the end of the day, will team transitory will be proven right into 2023? After hearing last weeks episode, James reached out to engage in a friendly debate with Mark as he has a slightly different view on the inflation dynamics into 2023.We then move on to the mounting pressures in housing as KKR, Blackstone & Starwood limit withdrawals to their REIT products. Mark reflects on the 2007/08 period and what similarities, if any, we can make today in 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Horizon Kinetics: https://twitter.com/HorizonKineticsFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Michel Kao joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar and its role in the great power competition.Michael outlines his thesis for an upcoming paper on the U.S Dollar looking at the geopolitical significance of the Dollar and the four key economic pillars of which is stands upon. As many have called for the demise of the U.S Dollar, Michael sees the current rules based order continuing, despite the less favourable policies the U.S has enacted. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Michael Kao: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboyFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Referenced In The Show:Inflation/USD Wrecking Ball-Who's Gonna Out-Hawk the Fed?: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1613279643754463232 Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System: https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/money-and-empire/money-and-empire/E9C856CAE32893E703C9BF474511A046 Sanctions book – Backfire: Agathe Demarais: https://agathedemarais.com/sanctions-book-backfire/ Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology: https://www.christophermiller.net/semiconductors-1 Acquired: TSMC: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tsmc/id1050462261?i=1000534514877 The Geopolitical Mosh Pit: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1589253118268944386 Sir James Goldsmith Presciently Explaining Globalization in 1994: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKe38mVpHgk Rubicon: The Last Years of the Roman Republic: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/91017.Rubicon--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:17) The Primacy of the US Dollar And Its Role In the Great Power Competition(04:04) Economic Pillars of National Power: Geography, Natural Resources & Industrial Capacity(16:56) The Aftermath of Bretton Woods(32:38) The Geopolitics of U.S Dollar Sanctions, Semiconductors & Energy Policy(47:38) Energy Independence, The Dollar Wrecking Ball & Inflation(59:35) Permissionless Ad(1:00:20) The U.S Dollar Dutch Disease(1:15:34) The Great Power Competition & Rules Based Order(1:23:33) A Summary of The Great Power Competition Between The U.S & China--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.