Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that a recession is coming, but it's not imminent due to the economy's underlying strengths, including active consumers, corporate balance sheets and the labor market. While waiting for a recession to arrive late next year, Fernandez says investors should be taking advantage of down days in the market to buy up names that are on sale and better balance a portfolio to get through trouble. Also on the show, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com talks about whether the market's slow start to the year has made 2022 a particularly good time to consider converting traditional retirement accounts into Roth IRAs, Sara Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent survey on the emotions and financial stresses that consumers are living with now, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a mutual fund that gets a good rating from Morningstar into the Danger Zone, noting that the fund's holdings have it headed for trouble.

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that consumer demand should support the economy for the remainder of 2022 "without significant dire consequences," but he notes that 2023 is "another whole can of worms" and the Federal Reserve's plans to squash inflation is likely to have side effects that create a recession in 2023. Mullaney talks about the market's fundamental and technical sides, identifies segments and sectors he expects to lead and lag, and more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. In the NAVigator segment, Sam Brothwell, director of research at Energy Income Partners, says that the current cycle of under-investment in capital spending has made it harder for energy producers to respond to the current supply-demand imbalance; that has pushed energy prices -- for oil, natural gains, electricity and alternatives -- dramatically higher, where they are likely to stay for awhile. In the Market Call, Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager for the Robinson Funds, discusses investments in premarket SPACs (special-purpose acquisition companies) and closed-end funds, and how they can further diversify a portfolio while increasing its overall risk profile.

Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says that the sharp sell-off that set bonds off to a bad start to the year -- and scared many investors out of the bond space -- has reached a pivot point, so that investors are now looking at "a rare opportunity" to get back in with higher yields and attractive valuations. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a play on the dollar recently hitting a two-decade high against global currencies with his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to pay for/finance a big expense, and Rob Spivey, director of research for Valens Securities, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that despite the gloom being caused by high inflation, war and more, "If you step back, we're not in a terrible place." He notes that if inflation can be controlled and the labor market stays at current levels of full employment, that should lead to a good outcome once tensions ease. Gruenwald says that a big market decline, recession or proverbial day of reckoning is not a foregone conclusion; if the economy can be guided to a path where inflation reduces to Federal Reserve targets -- and growth hits those targets too -- he believes there is a reasonable glide path to better days ahead. Also on the show, money manager and author Adam Seessell discusses the continuing evolution of value investing and his book, "Where the Money Is: Value Investing in a Digital Age," plus Clark Kendall, president and chief executive officer at Kendall Capital discusses stock investing in the Market Call.

Jeanette Garretty says there is a very real risk of recession in the next nine months, but she sees no reason to expect anything worse than a "garden-variety, U.S. economic recession, with a couple of quarters negative and then a fairly quick rebound in economic activity with the markets leading" that recovery. Garretty notes that there are risks that could exacerbate problems and make a downturn more severe, but she sees inflation pressures easing significantly come early 2023 and recovery to follow unless war, China trade tensions or other conditions have bigger-than-expected impacts. Covering the market's technicals, Scott Brown -- technical market strategist at LPL Financial -- says it appears the market bottom is not in place yet, meaning that he expects a downturn and more capitulation by investors before a significant turnaround, but he does think that investors should look for more stocks to make three-month highs as a sign that things are ready to start recovering rather than drifitngmostly sideways and down. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the positive and negative impacts that Covid-19 had on individual investors in the firm's 2022 Planning and Progress Study, and Bill Davis of the Stance Equity ESG Large Cap Core ETF talks stocks in the Market Call.

Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says investors need to be cautious about accepting current market risks and keep an eye on their sleep factor "because whatever [investment] thesis you have, it will be tested." Merk notes that he is hesitant facing today's economic conditions because there are still a lot of possible outcomes based on anticipated action from the Federal Reserve and the stock market's response to the news. Also on the show, Charles Rotbut of AAII Journal discusses the group's latest update to its sentiment survey -- Kule Guske, investment analyst for New Constructs, talks about three stocks with misleading earning that could hit shareholders soon, and Michael Sincere is here to discuss the updated versions of his books, "Understanding Stocks" and "How to Profit in the Stock Market."

Laura Martin, equity analyst at Needham & Co., says that streaming technology companies saw their maturation curve speed up during the pandemic, with the fallout being current pricing pressures as consumers wise up to the various pricing models that best meet their needs. She also discusses ad-tech and big-tech stocks and U.S.-China trade tensions in a wide-ranging Big Interview. Also on the show, Max Wasserman, senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital talks about how investors should deal with the current unknowns that have the market on edge right now, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance identifies five "plain vanilla" closed-end funds that are using basic, simple strategies to present good value and opportunities now, and Doug Milnes, head of data analysis at MoneyGeek.com discusses the site's recent survey showing how inflation has already had a significant impact on consumers' sumemr travel plans.

Noted market bear Harry Dent -- who called for a 50 percent market crash when he was last on the show in late May of 2021 -- says that efforts made to prolong the bull market have exacerbated the trouble that the financial world must now slog through "the crash of our lifetimes." He's calling for a recession and a massive market downturn -- saying the Standard & Poor's 500 is due to fall roughly 85 percent from its peak before it's done -- that has only just begun. Dent foresees a long market rebound starting in a few years driven by a millennial spending boom that, based on demographics, he expects to run from 2024 all the way to 2037. Also on the show, Ed Shill, managing partner at the Wealth Enhancement Group talks a balanced approach to stock investing -- but also notes that he believes the current economy can avoid a recession and that he does not foresee a market crash -- in the Market Call, and Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, focuses on industrial metals with his ETF of the Week.

Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest, says that investors are engaging in a proverbial flight to quality by moving from the individual stocks and the security picking that fueled their interest in the market during the rebound from Covid to buying indexes and holding the market despite broader declines happening now. It's not the traditional way that investors seek safety, but Bell says that new investors are taking different paths as they get more involved in the market. Also on the show, technical analyst Michael Sincere says he believes recent rallies have been consistent with bear-market upturns and not with a market bottom, noting that he believes a bear market is in the cards before the market can have any meaningful, long-lasting rebound, and New York Times journalist David Gelles discusses his new book, "The Man Who Broke Capitalism: How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland and Crushed the Soul of Corporate America—and How to Undo His Legacy."

Andrew Patterson, senior international economist at The Vanguard Group, says that recession "is not our base case right now," because economic growth is coming in at reasonable levels, even if it is taking longer than the Federal Reserve was hoping for to achieve that healthier level of activity. Patterson thinks GDP growth can be back to its long-term trend levels by the end of the year. Kathryn Kaminski, chief research strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, talks about alternative investing and how the market has turned has done a 180-degree turnaround from the pandemic's early days -- when one of the best strategies involved being long in bonds and short on commodities -- to what is working now. Also on the show, Jessica Bryant, analyst for BestColleges.com, discusses a survey showing how many people are stymied in their ability to change/upgrade jobs by financial factors like gaps in health insurance coverage or a cash cushion that's too small to cover rent during the transition; and Chuck answers a listener's question about how many investments is too many.