Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Molly Schwartz, a portfolio manager on the U.S. Broad Market team at Western Asset Management, says a recession can be avoided for the rest of the year if the Federal Reserve "takes a more measured approach" and sticks to it. Even if there is a recession, Schwartz said what matters is how people feel it, and they're not likely to feel much pain while the job market is still growing and workers are getting raises, and more. Also on the show, Chuck answers audience-member questions about what's wrong with an individual investor taking a flyer on riskier stocks and strategies, as well as how to determine if a financial adviser has the 'right credential' to help with retirement planning, and Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management talks growth at a reasonable price in the Market Call.

Market strategist Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that the Federal Reserve is not "going to get rid of inflation with six months of rate hikes," which is a big reason why he is calling for market doldrums that amount to several years of mostly sideways. While not anticipating a big crash, McDonald says that investors should avoid the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes -- which he says have been destroyed of late -- and instead pursue emerging markets and value stocks. Also on the show, David Schiffman, manager of the Aquila High Income Fund (ATPAX), says that the current environment for high-yield bonds is unlike anything he has seen in his long career, noting that there is a lot of push and pull between mixed economic numbers; Schiffman says the junk-bond space "is in much better shape" than before central bankers started raising traits and he expects to see that improvement continue. And in the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer singles out Tesla and Twitter as prime examples of the many stocks with inflated street earnings that could lead to a bad beat when the quarterly numbers are issued over the next few weeks.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that the next step the stock market must take to begin a recovery involves adjusting earnings expectations, noting that several years of record earnings "set the bar too high," and now investors must adjust to lower, more realistic gains. Yes, she notes, valuations have dropped due to the bear market, pricing "a heck of a lot of negativity into the market," but it's now time for 'the E to come under pressure.' Sonders notes that while she thinks the economy is in a recession, the label matters much less than the pain investors have been feeling. Also on the show, John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says the market is nearing "a strategic bottom," with bad news being priced into the market giving the potential for liftoff if the market sees any signs of improvement moving forward. And Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial Services, says that the closed-end fund market showed signs of a "sympathy widening" in mid-June, an event that can be a sign of a market bottom; if that holds -- without any additional excessive selling to reverse the recent trend -- it could mean a bounce-back is in the offing.

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group says that while economic growth has slowed -- causing what might be considered a "growth recession" -- the economy itself should be able to avoid a full-blown recession, as inflation eases and consumers and investors realize "they kind of overreacted a bit" to current conditions. But there's also a second Big Interview with a guy named Steve on this show, as Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers says that the market must first find stability in low-risk assets like short-term Treasury bonds before investors can accurately size up riskier assets like stocks. He sees selective opportunities for patient investors right now, while waiting for the Federal Reserve "to take the foot off the brakes," which he thinks will help the market set a bottom and move forward to a rebound. Also on the show, for the second consecutive week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com turns to a managed-futures, commodity-based fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says that there's more pain ahead for the stock market, but that the end of the year is likely to see a bounce-back that serves as the start of a recovery. Stovall expects the Standard & Poor's 500 to hit roughly 3,200 -- which would be a 33 percent decline, and an average bear market -- before the turnaround starts around the December holidays. Thus, he says, the market will end up down for the year, but positioned for 2023 to be a big gainer, with the sectors that have suffered the most during the downturn taking the lead during the rebound. "Those things that were beaten up are the ones that offer the greatest opportunity," Stovall says. Also on the show, Chuck talks about robo-call scams where consumers are told there has been an unauthorized purchase to their Amazon.com account -- and plays four different times he got such calls -- and Kevin Miller, chief investment officer at the E-valuator Funds talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.

Paula Pant, host of the Afford Anything podcast says that high inflation certainly impacts consumers emotions and feelings about money but it hasn't had much impact on their ability to achieve their financial goals, noting that people can still 'afford anything, but not everything,' with some stepped up planning to help deal with higher prices. Also on the show, journalism professor Chris Roush discusses his new book, "The Future of Business Journalism: Why It Matters for Wall Street and Main Street," noting that the business journalism community has changed to where it doesn't serve most investors and consumers particularly well; in the Market Call, Salem Abraham, founder of Abraham Trading Co. and manager of Abraham Fortress fund makes his debut talking top-down stock-picking.

With the stock market off to its worst first-half start to a year since 1962, Anu Ganti, senior director of index investment strategy at S&P Global, points to her firm's analysis showing that there is "no correlation between first half of the year performance and second half of the year performance." That doesn't mean that a rally is in the offing -- with 10 of 11 sectors and roughly 90 percent of the S&P 500 stocks down this year -- but it means one is possible. That sentiment also was clear in a Talking Technicals interview with Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, who says the downturn this year is getting to the point where people might want to start investing into it, not expecting a rapid rally but recognizing that conditions will be changing and improving as we get toward the end of the year. Also on the show, Ben McCulloch, managing director and general counsel at XA Investments, discusses developments in interval funds and tender-offer funds, and John Sullivan of the Olstein All Cap Value Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says that investors have endured the toughest start to a year for stocks and bonds in decades, but the mounting troubles should culminate in a recession in the second half of the year, with the downturn going deeper before a real recovery occurs. Cronk says that he thinks if the Standard & Poor's 500 were to hit 3,300, valuations will be so compelling that he will be "pounding the table" to get clients to buy. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com makes a managed-futures fund that has posted strong performance amid the market's troubles his ETF of the Week, John Boroff, vice president of youth investing at Fidelity Investments discusses the 2022 results from its "Teens and Money Study," and Chuck answers a listener's question about required minimum distributions for this year.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, says that even though consumers are largely in better position than they were just a few years ago, they're not feeling it now as credit-card debt has been rising and savings levels shrinking in the face of inflation. As a result, the percentage of Americans saying they are uncomfortable financially has skyrocketed, with inflation as the cause because it doesn't just erode savings but it grates on confidence. Also on the show, David Elefant of Elefant Financial talks about the financial issues that the LGBTQIA community is worrying about as it considers the potential for political changes in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision that reversed Roe vs. Wade. While Elefant is worried that financial rules affecting partners and same-sex marriages could change dramatically depending on which laws are passed or repealed, he says the situation is not as dire as scary headlines make it out to be. In the Market Call, Mark Travis of Intrepid Capital Management talks about investing in "basic boring businesses" that make things like "beer, shoes and underwear."

Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy, Fundstrat Global Advisors, says that a healthy consumer and a market that has solid economic footing should lead to "a recession with a small R and not a capital R." Newtons says his models show a market bottoming out in July before turning significantly higher in September, thanks largely to higher interest rates already being baked into the market's expectations. Newton says that the bear market has been in process for months, even if it was only just recognized by the media; the result is that a lot of damage was done before the headlines were made, increasing the likelihood that we are closer to the bottom than the start of trouble. Also on the show, Peter Crane of Crane Data -- publisher of Money Fund Intelligence -- talks about how rising interest rates have made money-market funds more attractive than they have been in over a decade, despite yields in the 1 percent range, Catherine Collinson discusses the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies 2022 Retirement Study released today showing Americans' changing attitudes about the working conditions they want and more, and Marten Carlson, lead reviewer at Mattress Clarity, talks about sleeping for a month on the "cheapest mattress" sold on Amazon in answer to a popular consumer search, and what buyers should know to ensure they get a good deal and a good night's rest.