Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says he expects a choppy market through the first half of 2024, but says the market won't uncork an ugly bear market without a significant recession, which he does not currently expect. That said, the volatility and the economic conditions should help the "SHUT stocks" -- staples, health care, utilities and telecom -- which are defensive, dividend-oriented plays, currently "the most oversold they have ever been." If interest rates drop and dividend payers get a boost from investors seeking yield, Clissold believes defensive plays will have a strong rebound. Also on the show, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com discusses the year-end tax considerations investors should be thinking about now, David Trainer of New Constructs comes up with a Thanksgiving turkey, revisiting a Danger Zone pick that has gone all the way to zero and another pick that seems headed for bankruptcy, and Sam Huisache discusses a Clever Real Estate study showing that housing prices in states that have legalized recreational cannabis use are higher and rising faster than property values in states in which marijuana remains illegal.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that the "hurricane" of bad economic numbers investors expected in 2023 could be a "gale force wind" in 2024, which is "something we can adjust to," which should help keep an economic downturn to a modest amount of time. Still, Ablin says that the technology sector is trading at 47 percent premium on a relative forward P/E basis to the rest of the Standard and Poor's 500, and history suggests that condition will lead to mediocre performance over the next 12 months. In The NAVigator segment, Eric Purington of the Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Income Fund, says mega-mergers involving oil giants Exxon and Chevron have implications for middle-market and midstream energy companies and infrastructure companies, because they show that larger energy companies are poised to make big investments in smaller firms, and the deals have opened the door to other mergers at all levels of the industry. Plus, in the Market Call, Dan Ives of the Wedbush ETFMG Global Cloud Technology ETF talks artificial-intelligence and cloud computing companies.

Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says that America remains the best country in the world to do business in, which is going to maintain "a basement" that the economy will not slip past when it loses some steam early next year. "The consumer has assets and has jobs, and those two things will keep the economy doing all right," he says in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, pursues really big dividends with his pick for the ETF of the Week. Claire Martin Tellis discusses a Preply.com survey showing that higher salaries don't always lead to the best job satisfaction, but lower salaries do tend to involve work that's boring. Plus, in the Market Call, Derek Izuel, chief investment officer at Shelton Capital Management, talks stocks.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says the domestic stock market "Has to go down a lot more from here to be considered at fair value," which is why he has more money working in international stocks, particularly in Japan, where markets are more fairly valued and central bankers have not had to tighten up monetary policy the way the Federal Reserve has had to in the U.S. He gives his most optimistic, pessimistic and realistic look-aheads to 2024. Ron Lieber, money columnist at The New York Times, goes off the news on his recent story about banks suddenly and unexpectedly closing down some consumer accounts without warning, leaving surprised customers at a loss and struggling to pay bills, make payrolls and more. In the Market Call, Chris Retzler of the Needham Small-Cap Growth fund discusses the struggles that smaller companies have had in a market dominated by a few big names.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that the economic downturn everyone saw as happening this year wound up being postponed for solid economic reasons, but it hasn't been canceled and more likely just pushed back into 2024. Luschini says investors should be defensive, taking advantage of higher bond yields and not being sucked into low valuations on international investments, staying balanced but not too aggressive until the economy and market are on more solid ground. His forecast for a 2024 recession is in keeping with that of D.R. Barton Jr., chief investment strategist at Finiac, who says the market's technicals suggest that Santa Claus will be bringing a rally to town before the year ends, but that the New Year is likely to bring a recession that may be harder than most people expect after so much back and forth this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Eric Schoenstein of Jensen Investment Management talks about using quality as a factor in selecting growth stocks.

Frank Holmes, chief executive at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes interest rates have peaked, and that the economy will turn around in six months as rates start to fall, but he also believes there is plenty to carry the stock market in the short-term with the Santa Claus rally propping things up by year's end as gas prices start falling, with rate cuts also coming then to help boost the economy and the recovery. Also on the show, David Trainer, president of New Constructs revisits some "zombie stocks" that are less dangerous than in the past, but where their "good news" is not much cause for celebration. Plus Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses the Weird Financial News.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says he believes the Federal Reserve has finished hiking rates, even though it hasn't announced it. He looks at the clues in chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, and notes that this inflection point has bond yields at a great spot, noting "I can't remember a time when the real yield was as attractive as it is now." He's not the only one seeing opportunity in bonds, as Willie Delwiche of HiMount Research talks technicals and sees headwinds ahead for the stock market late in the year due to economic pressures that he expects to hit home early in 2024, but noting that bonds are poised for a long-term rally if/when interest rates start dropping. Also on the show, Steven Perry of XA Investments discusses the growth in non-listed closed-end funds and how they offer all investors -- including those without a lot of money -- the chance to get into asset classes that previously were reserved for the super wealthy and the big institutions and, in the Market Call, Rob Spivey of Valens Research talks about his firm's accounting-based methods for analyzing stocks.

BJ Webster, chief investment officer at Alera Group Wealth Management, says he does not expect the economy to have a hard landing, and while there will be discomfort, investors will survive a downturn and will see slower growth that brings down interest rates, which in turn will help to give a boost to any subsequent recovery. Webster notes that if the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates while other central banks are continuing to raise interest rates, international markets might benefit from the resulting weaker dollar, as well as current valuations that are better than on domestic stocks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a young high-yield fund for his ETF of the Week, Chuck puts a bow on his annual Halloween cash-or-candy, trade-or-treat fun, and Sam Burns of Mill Street Research talks stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

Peter Crane, president of Crane Data -- which publishes the Money Fund Intelligence newsletter tracking the performance of money market mutual funds -- says that high interest rates should have investors thinking about where to park and protect their cash, and to treat their cash holdings as an asset rather than an after-thought in the investment plan. He also discusses the likely path of money fund rates based on the Fed's moves. In The Book Interview, Victor Haghani, co-author of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions," discusses how bad financial choices have wiped out countless family fortunes that would have grown massive had they just been managed smartly. In the Market Call, George Villere, co-manager of Villere Equity and Villere Balanced funds, talks small- and mid-cap investing.

Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says that the market is showing signs of breakdown, and while you can still find one or two indicators that are positive, the bearish signs are out and suggesting that there's a downturn coming, though he thinks the decline will stop short of being a "hard landing." Also on the show, Roraj Pradhananga, director of research at Veris Wealth Partners, a sustainable investment firm, talks about how current global conflicts are impacting markets, notably the energy sector, and how that is impacting the sustainable, renewable energy companies versus the fossil-fuel companies. Plus, Lester Jones discusses the results of the Business Conditions survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, and Chuck answers a listener's question about how to bring money lessons to Halloween for a family that doesn't get trick-or-treating traffic so that they can't replicate Chuck's "cash or candy" holiday celebration.