Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says there will be some damage to the economy -- worse than a soft landing -- but she thinks the economy can put off recession until at least 2025. Hooper says the new year should be an improving year for consumers with real wage growth rising as the disinflationary process continues; she thinks that improvement will cause an increase in spending, with the trigger being interest-rate cuts which she expects to start in the second quarter. Also on the show, Dan Griffith, director of wealth strategy at Huntington Private Bank, taks about the "tax sunset" and how investors and consumers want to start thinking now about rules that are changing at the end of 2024, because there will be a segment of the population -- particularly the wealthy -- who will pay a penalty if they are caught unaware of how rules will revert to past standards barring action from Congress. Plus Chuck talks about the systems he has used for setting annual goals and how it is better to set goals than make resolutions if you want to make real change in your life in the year ahead.

Mary Ellen Stanek, co-chief investment officer at Baird Advisors -- a firm known best for bond investing -- says the Federal Reserve has delivered better than expected results, and while there is plenty of expectation of a reasonably soft landing, buckle up and protect your portfolio because volatility won't be going away even as the economy and the market revert to their long-term historical trends for key indicators like growth, inflation and more. With just days left on the 2023 calendar, Kelly Lannan discusses Fidelity's annual resolution survey, which shows that struggles with inflation have more people looking at setting financial goals this year, although many may have lowered their sights in picking targets for the year ahead. Plus, hedge-fund manager Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital Management talks stocks in the Market Call.

Avi Gilburt, founder of the Elliott Wave Trader, expects the stock market to reach new highs, but thinks the current rally will carry to those record levels by no later than the second quarter of 2024, after which he says "a bear market is going to be in our future." Additionally, he says there will be a banking crisis that is part of the bear market, notig that systemic issues with the banking system will create trouble that "will likely be worse than what we saw in 2008," when troubles in the financials sector were cornerstone to the Great Financial Crisis. Brenda Langenfeld, portfolio manager for Nuveen, says that banking environment will actually create opportunities for investors in preferred securities, noting that heightened banking regulatory oversight will be favorable for credit investors, that positive fundamentals suggest stability and growth and that valuations are at levels "that present a capital appreciation opportunity over the next year." Also on the show: Charles Rotblut discusses the latest sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which shows levels of bullishness at their highest levels in more than two and a half years, and portfolio manager Francisco Bido of F/m Acceleration brings his quant-active investment style to the Market Call.

Legendary bond fund manager Dan Fuss -- the vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co. -- says that while the Federal Reserve was "caught and delayed" in responding to inflation, he gives them "a whole lot of credit" for pulling the economy out of the doldrums while avoiding a crash, noting that this central bank's performance is among the most impressive for any central bank he has watched in his 60-plus year career. Fuss says the market is "fund, it is one of the most impressive accomplishments he has seen from the central bankers. Fuss expects the yield curve the return to normal, but he says long rates will not come down as much as investors might expect. He remains positive on U.S. markets, though he says stocks look pricy and the bond market is fundamentally solid, albeit thinner than it has been due to higher rates, a situation he expects to change once the Fed begins cutting rates in 2024. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on the state of 60-40 portfolios today; it's a follow-up question from an answer Chuck gave the same listener in April of 2021, at a point when investors were giving up on balanced portfolios ahead of changes int he rate cycle that have snice made the fixed-income portion of a mixed portfolio look much better. In the Market Call, Brian James, director of investments at Ullmann Wealth Partners, makes his debut talking funds and ETFs

Garry Evans, chief asset allocation strategist at BCA Research, expects a recession in 2024 but says that the Federal Reserve has eased conditions enough that it will happen later in the year and likely will be mild. Still, he says the risk is that inflation is not really dead, and what happens if it starts to re-ignite. As a result, he is hedging against inflation and while he would like to use gold to do it -- although he notes it is "a hedge against central banks turning too dovish," and not a hedge on gold -- he is suggesting that the high price of precious metals makes it that he favors TIPs [Treasury inflation-protected securities]. Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses recent research on the retirement outlook for women. The Center's latest report shows more than half of the 3,000 women surveyed feel they don't have enough income to save for retirement, and less than one in five are very confident that they will be able to fully retire with a comfortable lifestyle. In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., talks big-name, mega-cap brand-name stocks and how a focus on quality keeps "blue chips from turning into cow chips."

Jon Wolfenbarger, founder and chief executive officer at BullAndBearProfits.com says he foresees a market downturn of 60 percent in the next year or two, and that it could be down 50 percent from current levels a decade from now. Wolfenbarger bases that forecast on valuation levels "that are the highest they have been in history, higher than they were in 1929" or at the peak of the tech bubble. Wolfenbarger says a recession is coming soon if it hasn't already started, and that economic conditions will deteriorate from here based on indicators that are showing that trouble is about to hit home. Also on the show, Jason Callan, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments -- manager of the Columbia Strategic Income Fund -- says in the Big Interview that the economy still has some consequences to pay for the protracted inversion in the yield curve and how to position portfolios now that the Federal Reserve has indicated that it is likely to stop hiking rates but hasn't given more than mild ints about when it will begin cutting them. Plus, Rebecca Edwards discusses a Safewise study showing that Americans are worried about porch piracy for real reasons, notably that they will lose billions of dollars to thefts made at their doors -- and Chuck answers a listener's question about his take for the year ahead.

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer for The Leuthold Group, says the stock market's recent rally most likely pushes the economic cycle out by a month or two, but he says that the amount of tightening that is already in place and the impacts of the inverted yield curve hitting the economy will finally come to roost in economic fallout that "down the road is going to be severe." Ramsey expects a recession in the first half of 2024, and has a lot of economic data that he suggests support that conclusion. Also on the show, David Trainer, founder/president of New Constructs, heads to "The Danger Zone" for one final time in 2023, noting that investors who think the market rally has removed all pressure from stocks are wrong. In The Market Call, Tom Hancock of GMO -- manager of the new GMO U.S. Quality ETF -- talks about what makes a quality stock and how to use those issues in a portfolio.

Bryan Cannon, chief portfolio strategist at Cannon Advisors, says we're in a secular bull market right now, but he notes that a secular bear -- usually not recognizable until it's in the rearview mirror -- could be close, because "you've never had inflation without a secular bear market." Cannon expects the current rally to continue into the new year, but he notes the charts and the trends could change along with the calendar, making it hard to read 2024. Also on the show, Sarah Foster discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey showing that some 60 percent of Americans say that their income has not kept pace with inflation. In The NAVigator segment, Adam Sparkman -- part of the team running the Thornburg Income Builder Opportunity Trust -- says "it's a different menu within fixed income entering 2024 than it was a couple of years ago," which has him increasing credit quality, taking less risk and lengthening maturity as we start seeing how potential rate cuts take shape. Plus Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at Nixon Peabody Trust Co., talks stocks and funds/ETFs in the Market Call.

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management -- president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute -- says the market's current rally has it ahead of where it should be, and he expects a slowdown both for the economy and the stock market early in 2024, lasting until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and stimulates the economy, kicking off a strong second half of the year. In discussing Wells Fargo's outlook for 2024, Cronk recommends that investors keep some dry powder waiting for that inflection point. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi looks to a genomics fund that has been a bit out of favor for his ETF of the Week, noting that he thinks the fund and the area it invests in are ready for a takeoff. Plus, Glenn Tompkins, senior global market strategist at VectorVest makes his debut in the Market Call, and Chuck has a surprise extra segment based on the day's headlines.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management -- the nation's largest crypto index fund manager -- says that cryptocurrency has historically moved in four-year cycles, with a big move upwards followed by a big reset. Last year, when crypto suffered losses bigger than the down market, was the setback; now crypto assets are in the recovery phase -- which he says most investors aren't paying attention to -- setting up "a significant and sustained bull run in crypto." Also on the show, Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer, KraneShares -- the editor of ChinaLastNight.com -- says that a four-year losing streak in China has positioned the market there as a global value play, noting that he thinks many investors are lost in the headlines over trade concerns and focusing portfolios on the "very crowded trade" of U.S. markets rather than eyeing the potential for an economic turnaround/comeback in China. In the Market Call, portfolio manager Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management, talks about the firm's earnings-consistency purview in picking stocks.