Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says she is minimizing geopolitical inputs right now because it's impossible to make investment decisions around uncertainty. She says it's particularly important right now to focus on fundamentals and what's real — "We're investing in companies not countries" — and she is not buying the long-term hype on Europe because she says the recent rally doesn't have a strong foundation to stand on. That's one of four interviews from FutureProof Citywide in Miami Beach for today's show. Chuck also talks emerging markets and global income investing with Dan Shaykevich, head of Multi Sector Strategy, co-head of Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt with Vanguard, discusses the evolution of new financial products with Alec Davis, head of enterprise reporting at Pitchbook, and covers the stock market and being a patient investor in impatient times with Eddy Elfenbein, editor of the Crossing Wall Street blog and portfolio strategist for the AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF.

Money Life goes to the beach for the rest of this week, with Chuck conducting interviews at FutureProof Citywide, a festival for financial advisers held on Miami Beach. His first conversation at the event was with veteran CNBC personality Ron Insana, now the head of wealth at QuantumStreet AI, who says investors are right to be concerned about current levels of valuation and also geo-political policy uncertainty, but who doesn't see market issues extending to a level of a crash or crisis. The show also features Stephen Tuckwood, chief investment officer at Modern Wealth Management, leading financial adviser Michael Kitces, the head of planning strategy at Focus Wealth Partners, and Jeff Garden, chief investment officer at Lido Advisors, who makes a notable case against investing internationally — particularly in Europe — as a way to diversify a portfolio now.

Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that the current market decline is not a real surprise, but the whipsaw of emotions — moving from a can't-miss certainty that things were going up to hand-wringing today — is taking investors by storm, making them want to take actions even when the best strategy is to ride this out. "Success grows in silence, and the market is really attuned to noise," Treussard says. "Your job is to sit there with peace in your heart and focus on the silence." Kate Byrne, head of Vanguard Cash Plus discusses a recent Vanguard Consumer Savings Survey which showed that six in 10 Americans did not completely understand how interest rates can impact the money they save, which is why nearly half of them who are currently saving are settling for accounts earning less than 3 percent interest. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Trupanion back in the Danger Zone, noting that the pet-insurance company is barking louder as a dog despite recent pullbacks after an earnings miss.

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, says that stock market swings have had increasing impact on economic growth and the rate of inflation in recent years — "Price is a fundamental," he says — and that means the current downturn in the stock market could deliver a recession. At the same time, if the market moves from current correction-levels to bear-market levels, he expects inflation to then ease up and to help drive a potential recovery. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest investor sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which just hit its third straight week with bearish sentiment above 57 percent and bullish sentiment below 20 percent, a three-week stretch in both numbers that has never been seen since the survey started in 1987. While sentiment levels didn't hit these levels during events like the Dot-com Crash and the Great Financial Crisis, Rotblut noted that when sentiment reaches bearish extremes, the market typically has rebounded in six months, which bodes well for a recovery before year's end. In the NAVigator segment, Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi, discusses the Invesco Closed-End Fund Income Composite ETF — which she considers the "Standard & Poor's 500 for closed-end funds" — as it celebrates its 15th anniversary and crosses $800 million in assets.

Shelly Antoniewicz, chief economist at the Investment Company Institute, says that consumers currently expect that they will wind up paying about half of the costs added to goods by tariffs — meaning they will pay 10 percent more when an item is facing a 20 percent tariff — and she says that a cutback in consumer spending would dramatically change the economic picture, since it makes up about two-thirds of GDP. Along with declining consumer sentiment, Antoniewicz says that investors are reacting to current market performance and heading toward money-market and bond funds, waiting before they are willing to buy into the dips. Speaking of concerned and conservative investors, Todd Rosenbluth — head of research at VettaFi — picks an ultra-short and ultra-safe bond fund as his "ETF of the Week," and Chuck recounts three conversations this week with friends who are dealing with the market differently as they struggle to find some peace of mind amid current concerns. Plus, Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that Americans can agree on something, namely that tipping is wildly out of control.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says she is still holding to the optimistic scenarios she had entering 2025, but she acknowledges that the potential for a recession grows by the day, given tariffs, a potential resurgence in inflation, fiscal pressures resulting in cuts to government spending and more. Still, Hooper's base case remains positive and she warns that investors can't afford to get spooked out of the market by short-term temporary declines. Jordan Grumet of the "Earn and Invest" podcast, discusses his new book, "The Purpose Code: How to Unlock Meaning, Maximize Happiness and Leave a Lasting Legacy," plus Aaron Schumm of Vestwell talks about how consumers and workers can improve their savings — and American could make a dent into its savings crisis — by using new platforms that allow money to be set aside not just into retirement plans but for college savings, emergency funds, health care and more.

Brian Nick, head of portfolio strategy at NewEdge Wealth, says nervous investors should not be rooting for interest rate cuts, because they would be cheering for the economy to get worse, and the stock market would likely suffer as that happens. On the current suffering, Nick is not cowed by the last few days, noting that the "abrupt switch" in markt mentality is not the end of the bull market and economic growth cycles. He says the chances of recession are up, but that investors should diversify their way through the bumpy road ahead. Gregory Harmon, founder and president at Dragonfly Capital Management, says the market remains in "a really positive range," and the current consolidation isn't an issue until or unless the market starts making lower lows, signalling a potentially more significant and lasting change of direction. Cody Barbo, chief executive officer at TrustandWill.com discusses the site's 2025 Estate Planning Report, which showed that 20 percent of Americans have "completely abandoned traditional American Dream ideals."

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says the economy remains on a solid growth path, generating new job creation and steady unemployment that should prop the economy up against trouble. That said, she acknowledges that consumers are scared and may be starting to hesitate, which could quickly change the circumstances. Garretty notes that the stock market is pricing in what it expects to see from the economy in roughly nine months, and concerns over tariffs and geopolitical issues are leading people to want to make knee-jerk reactions before the market has a chance to really digest and sort out what lies ahead. Those reactionary impulses are also showing up in consumers, as witnessed by John Egan, who discusses a new study from Creditcards.com, which shows that nearly 20 percent of Americans are "doom spending" in order to get ahead of tariff-driven price increases. Chuck takes a listener's question about whether current conditions really do represent a buying opportunity, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts a mid-cap fund that gets a four-star rating from morningstar in The Danger Zone.

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research says that he expects the stock market to back off of its current "pretty elevated" levels as it prices in a discount for uncertainty. "Whether or not you think in the long run that changes by the Administration are good or bad, while we go through them means that probably valuations need to be lower," Clissold says, noting that the discount will be accompanied by choppier market action, heightened volatility and more pullbacks and corrections. Further, Clissold notes that the situation could last until the economy digests a workforce shift as public workers move into jobs in the private sector and consumers curb spending during the adjustment period. D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says the current cycle may be changing, and he is watching whether the Standard & Poor's 500 can stay above its 200-day moving average, which it has been close to breaking the last few days. Barton says the pullback could reach the point of being a correction -- a decline of 10 percent or more -- if the trend line is broken, but he thinks the market needs to take a breather and re-gather itself before it can resume making real progress. Kimberly Flynn, president of XA Investments, says healthy borrowers and minimal defaults make the loan space attractive, with concerns over tariffs and Federal Reserve policies leading to more volatility but also new opportunities.

Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that the cheap global stock markets are up 15 percent already this year, where the United States has been flat — "if you heard about geo-politics, you'd assume the opposite" — and he says that investors should be moving away from domestic issues to buy more global companies. Faber promises — and delivers — "a warning, an idea, a curiosity and something you've never heard of before" in today's Big Interview, and also gives his take on how to approach current events, asset allocation, cryptocurrencies and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also goes global on this show, looking to China internet stocks — one of those booming global markets — vettafi.com with his ETF of the Week. Plus Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, talks stock investing in the Market Call.