Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Ron Sanchez of Fiduciary Trust Co. International said that investors have gotten past the confidence-shaking drop of December, but they should be cautious now because stories about global growth, interest rates and international trade events will go a long way to determining whether the market can continue climbing this year. Also on the show, Michael Gayed of Pension Partners said that the market's technicals also should put investors into wait-and-see mode, as they suggest that stocks are overbought and awaiting a catalyst before a downturn. Thomas Winmill of the Midas Fund talked about gold and precious metals investing -- also fitting into the theme of uncertain times -- and Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discussed a recent survey which showed that 74 million Americans have more in credit-card debt than in emergency savings.

Brian Singer, head of the dynamic allocation strategies team at William Blair Co., said that fundamentals are going to re-assert themselves on asset prices, noting that when central banks around the world are tightening, value tends to be in favor. Singer also said that emerging markets are perhaps the best value and have the most potential return right now, and urged investors to consider emerging-markets equity. That was directly on point with the ETF of the Week, where Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picked a specialized emerging-markets fund -- the XSOE -- because it is trending now. Also on the show, Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investments discussed JP Morgan's plan to introduce its own cryptocurrency, and George Putnam III of The Turnaround Letter talked stocks in the Market Call.

David Goerz, chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, said he does not like the looks of China and emerging markets, prefers small-cap domestic stocks and cyclical sectors like industrials and financials as he sees a market with the potential to add a few more percentage points to the upside over the rest of the year. Unlike most recent Big Interview guests, Goerz still sees the Fed raising rates three times this year. Also on the show, Richard Lewis and Jeremiah Riethmiller of HighTower Advisors discuss connecting with clients through social media, Chuck talks about President Trump's contention that the market would have lost nearly half its value if the opposition had been elected in 2016, and Dan Brady of Trendrating.com talks stocks in the Market Call.

James Hickey, chief investment strategist at H.D. Vest Financial Services said that the strong gains realized by the market in January are likely to be what investors experience for the year. While anticipating a flat market for the rest of 2019, Hickey said he does expect some volatility to make things look better or worse throughout, and he ntoed that he is tilting his portfolios toward small-cap stocks, and avoiding Europe and cutting back on emerging markets investments. Also on the show, a rebroadcast of a recent interview with Brent Schutte from Northwestern Mutual, and the Market Call with Jim Lowell, editor of The Fidelity Investor and Fidelity Sector Investor newsletters.

Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Asset Management, said in the Market Call that while he is nto expecting a bear market in short order, he does see trouble ahead for the domestic markets, noting that his metrics show large-cap stocks as being 84 percent overvalued. With that in mind, he expects 'bad things to happen' domestically, even as he finds some global valuations appealing. Also ont eh show, Jason Reposa of MyBankTracker.com discusses America's problem with car-loan delinquiencies, Trevor Neilson of i(x) Investments talks about a new type of social and impact investing, and David Trainer covers companies with misleading returns on invested capital in the Danger Zone.

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon said in the Big Interview that between tariff problems and economic issues in Europe, investors must wait for the second half of the year for solid growth. That said, economic growth will be sufficient to avoid recession but not enough to satisfy investors who want to see more global expansion. Also, Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors suggested that investors should be long in stocks, while expecting a bear market to arrive in six to nine months, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel discussed large-cap growth investments in the Market Call.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that his rcession-probability model is showing a 20 percent chance of an economic downturn this year, but that investors should expect a recession in 2020 or '21, noting that while it should be a 'garden-variety recession,' the situation with the Fed could make any meltdown much worse. Also, economist Edward Goldberg of NYU said that American and China are coming to a truce -- and not a win or a loss -- in the trade wars, Tom Lydon looked at an emerging-markets ETF as his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chuck answered an question from an audience member.

After a superior 2017 and a dismal 2018, the outlook for emerging markets stocks and bonds is changing again and Richard Lewis from the Nulman Group did not like the looks of those markets while his HighTower Advisors colleague Jeremiah Reithmiller of Sarian Strategic Partners was much more optimistic about the prospects for companies based in developing nations. Also on the show, author Larry Swedroe discusses his new book on a successful retirement, Coryanne Hicks of U.S. News and World Report discusses the latest battle in the ETF pricking wars, and Stephen Dodson of the Bretton Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.

Michael Kagan, portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments, said that the United States economy -- unlike some around the world -- is looking strong right now; compared to relevant periods in history, he said Americans are likely to avoid a recession for several years. That said, he noted in the Market Call interview that he would be selling any stock that is not producing profits in these market conditions. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal made a banking company his 'Stock of the Week,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discussed his site's latest survey and author Tanja Hester discussed her new book on retiring very early -- potentially decades ahead of retirement age -- and not running out of money.

David Dowden, portfolio manager at MacKay Municipal Managers, said he expects the Federal Reserve to do one more rate hike -- during the first half of the year, or earlier than many other observers expect -- but he said that the bond market holds a lot of challenges for investors, like an abundance of muni-bond options that are creating a buying opportunity while alos potentially creating value traps. Also on the show, Kelly Anne Smith of BankRate.com discussed how much money people expect to spend for Valentine's Day, Marc Schneider of Zebit.com discussed how his unique shopping site -- which charges no interest and no late fees on payments -- actually works, and David Trainer of New Constructs put a mutual fund in the 'Danger Zone.'