Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Steven Durlauf, economics professor at the University of Chicago, says the perceived trade-offs between re-starting the economy and continuing quarantine is, in the short run, illusory. Lack of shelter-in-place, Durlauf says, creates such bad consequences for the health system -- and a re-started economy won't recover until everyone leaves home and participates fully -- that the choice between the two sides is not a true trade-off. Durlauf says that the current radical uncertainty would leave him surprised if the economy recovers in less than 18 to 36 months. In a 'Technical Difficulties' interview, Avi Gilburt of Elliott Wave Trader says that the current 2,700 to 2,900 range on the Standard and Poor's 500 is a 'battle zone,' and that if the market falls below 2,690, it could drop to the 2,060 range, while if it rallies and breaks through the 2,900 resistance, it could return to the 3,100 level in the next few weeks. Also on the show, Adam McCabe of Aberdeen Standard Investments talks about emerging markets and whether they have an edge having moved past the worst of the viral curve, and author Dan Simon discusses his book 'The Money Hackers' and the changing landscape of money, cash and global financial technology.

FeiFei Li, head of equities at Research Affiliates says the COVID-19 outbreak was a catalyst that turned questionable market conditions worse, but that the root causes for concern are still in place. Li, however, is bullish long-term even if she sees the market as being likely to take a big leg down from current levels; she says that the bear market of February was too quick and shallow, but it left the market at more attractive levels than at the end of 2019 or in February before the economic shutdown. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com with the ETF of the Week, Ken Tumin of DepositAccounts.com talking online savings rates, and Josh Pearl, author of "The Little Book of Investing Like the Pros: 5 Steps for Picking Stocks."

Andrew Beer of the iM DBi Hedge Strategy and the iM DBI Managed Futures Strategy ETFs, says that the long-lasting impacts from the global coronavirus shutdown will hit different areas, sectors, industries and countries in very different ways as recovery begins. While investors are right to be expecting trouble, Beer says that the fallout -- particularly if resources get scarce and fights for them become acute -- could create 'an enormous amount of volatility,' which also will create tremendous opportunities. Also on the show, Steve Resch of Finance of America Reverse discusses reverse mortgages and how they could become an increasingly important tool for retirees and near-retirees during any prolonged downturn, Health Silverman of Stessa.com who covers his site's survey of real estate investment trends, and Greg Hammer of Hammer Financial Group, who gives a quick take on the tax-law changes created during the crisis and what consumers should know about them.

Eddy Vataru, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Total Return Fund, says that the pandemic economy has put such a big wrench in the markets and life that it forces investors to rethink what makes a prudent investment now. He notes that investors have to cast a cautious eye to fixed income and be wary of chasing yields by extending bond duration. Also on the show, John Divine of US News and World Report says that the stock market's current value seems to ignore long-term concerns that have not even begun to play out, Bill Harmon of Voya Financial discusses a survey showing whether Americans' are changing their long-term investments plans, and Lamar Villere of the Villere Funds finds growth at a reasonable price in the Market Call.

Ken Applegate, portfolio manager at Wasatch International Growth, says that Japan -- and particularly small-cap companies there -- will be an area that investors should see leading the way as global markets recover from the coronavirus pandemic shutdown. Applegate says that economies that were struggling before the pandemic -- including most of Europe with low or negative interest rates -- are likely to struggle more to recover because they will have a tough time getting money flowing again. In another Big Itnerview, Toby Loftin of the Hennessy Funds talks about energy and midstream stocks, noting that investors will have to change the way they see these issuers -- and react to potential dividend cuts -- to buy low now and ride the long, slow path to recovery. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.comKyle Guske of New Constructs avoids adding to shelter-at-home miseries by singling out a stock headed for trouble in the Danger Zone and, instead, talks about an issue that has become particularly attractive for investors now.

David Goerz of Strategic Frontier Management, says that the market overshot the negative at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and that as clarity develops about re-opening the economy he expects the market to climb the wall of worry through to the end of the year. While he says the second quarter of 2020 will be 'a throw-away,' he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 to finish the year near 3,000, up more than 10 percent from current levels and representing a loss of just 5 percent on the year. Also on the show, Nicole Eisenberger of Ernst and Young on valuation issues inside of business-development companies, Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate talks about survey results showing how Americans are struggling financially right now, and Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group discusses funds and ETFs in the Market Call.

Tim Clift, chief investment strategist at Envestnet, says that even the current downturn -- as big as it has been and could grow to -- ultimately will become a blip on an investor's radar, which is why it's important to hold fast to financial plans and not make nervous moves that alter asset allocation, typically at just the wrong time. Empirically, Clift says he has not seen individual investors getting panicky, though he notes that a prolonged slowdown and a market drop could change behaviors for the worse. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new ETF with an unusual strategy his 'ETF of the Week,' Ande Frazier of myWorth talks financial priorities when money gets tight, and Art Amador of the AI Powered Equity ETF talks investments selected using artificial intelligence in the Market Call

Howard Silverblatt of SP Dow Jones Indexes says that after a record first quarter for dividend payouts -- in which $127 billion in distributions were made -- income-producing stocks have seen a dramatically changed landscape as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. As precautions ramped up, 13 companies cut or suspended dividend payments that would have totaled roughly $14 billion in March. That trend of dividend reductions and shutdowns is just beginning, Silverblatt says, noting that investors should expect reduced payouts and that stock buybacks will be rare for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, author Gerald Posner talks about the pharmaceuticals industry and its changing future when the viral economy subsides, former SEC director Norm Champ talks about how individuals can better ride out the chaos of the crumbling economy, and Chuck answers an audience member's question about a popular fund whose manager was recently on the show as a guest.

Warren Pierson, deputy chief investment officer at the Baird Funds, said that while the worst dislocation of the viral economy is now starting to wind down, the uncertainty ahead will shape and potentially surprise the bond market, as credit downgrades, low interest rates and more play out for at least the rest of the year as a recovery struggles to to gain a foothold. Also on the show, Preston Caldwell from Morningstar Inc. discusses the firm's best, worst and current forecasts for the economic outcomes from the COVID-19 pandemic, Chuck answers an audience question about deciding which securities to sell in order to raise cash now, and Don Rich from the Esoterica NextG Economy ETF talks stocks in the Market Call.

Rusty Vanneman, chiefinvestment officer at Orion Advisor Technology, says that if your asset allocation and investment plan were appropriate prior to the global pandemic, they remain appropriate and proper today, meaning that most investors should not be changing their holdings much in the middle of current troubles, even as they look for opportunities going forward. Vanneman believes that there will be superior economic growth when the viral economy ends, which should lead to value stocks and small-cap stocks -- two areas that were lagging the market pre-crisis -- becoming leaders. Also on the show, Ken Simonson discusses results from the latest National Association of Business Economics survey, where wide-ranging results show how hard the current situation is to analyze, Phil Haslett of EquityZen discusses the initial-public offering and pre-IPO markets, and David Trainer of New Constructs says that certain research efforts are undermined by the economic shut-down, creating problem areas for investors who rely on those numbers.