Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that technical analysis shows that the market at record highs is hiding the fact that parts of the market are not working, and that a number of indexes and indicators -- with the notable exception of the Standard and Poor's 500 -- are flat or struggling. 'I don't see that the rising tide is raising all boats,' Kahn says. 'I don't think the tide is rising.' In the Big Interview, Richard Smith of The RISK Rituals newsletter -- chief executive at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles -- talks about current market movements and how investors can better deal with risk. Michael Ordonez of Thornburg Investment Management, says in The NAVigator that the difficult environment for income-oriented investors, coupled with regulatory changes allowing for a more consumer-friendly structure led to the firm creating its first-ever closed-end fund, and that he expects more funds to take up the new structure. And in the Market Call, Andrey Kutuzov, portfolio manager for Seven Canyons Advisors, discusses small-cap growth investing around the globe.

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that we're seeing 'the best financial conditions that we've seen in decades right now, and earnings are off the charts,' and while he sees some potential for change due to inflation and interest rate pressures, he says that investors should be listening to the stock market and taking advantage of the good conditions while they last. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com issues a warning for investors in target-date funds and ETFs about the potential for their picks to be less effective in the future than they have been over the last decade or more, Ed Carson of Investors Business Daily discusses a sudden shift towards pessimism among American investors, and best-selling author John U. Bacon discusses his latest book and the lessons to be learned from his time leading 'America's Worst High School Hockey Team.'

Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the global markets are positioned well for the future provided that they can avoid significant trauma caused by inflation, and he is worried that the pressures causing current inflation may be more persistent than policymakers expect. If pricing pressures linger and are not transitory -- and Kalish uses shelter costs as a possible example -- they may not show up in inflation measures for more than a year, but they will impact the market long-term. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey on how people are feeling and responding to the pinch of higher prices, we revisit a recent chat with Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, and Chuck answers a question about investing in U.S. savings bonds for children and grandchildren.

Scott Helfstein, executive director of thematic investing at ProShares, says that the economic re-opening from the pandemic is not some sort of rewind, and that to move forward investors should give up on what he described as five fallacies, including the long-held debate about the growth versus value styles of investing. Helfstein also says that investors should recognize that investors should not expect government influence to cool off when the pandemic ends, says that the global supply chain will be a protracted problem and more. Also on the show, Matt Zajechowski discusses a study done for Harmony Healthcare on the reasons for the country's declining birth rate and why many of the issues are financial, and in an extended Market Call interview, Dan Wiener of Adviser Investments and The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors delves deeply into the world of Vanguard funds and ETFs.

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that the economy has entered an economic expansion phase, and notes that these growth phases tend to last a while. She expects this expansion to run for years, driven by fiscal policy and helped along by changes in the workplace, productivity and inventories that have eliminated some of the classic economic impediments to protracted growth runs. Also on the show, Daniel Wildermuth of the Wildermuth Endowment Fund discusses how private equity investments have weathered the pandemic -- and outperformed the broad stock market over the longer term -- Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com says that the technical indicators show that the market has room to run higher right now, and Julie Kutasov of Kayne Anderson Rudnick covers 'quality' small- and mid-cap investing in the Market Call.

Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle, says that the muni market has had a good summer, but got a bit softer in August and is likely to stay that way while waiting to see how government infrastructure plans and any potential tax increases play out. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com -- for the second week in a row -- makes a classic fund that now is available as an exchange-traded fund his ETF of the Week; one difference this week is that the fund is a cornerstone in Chuck's portfolio. Also on the show, Barry Metzger of Charles Schwab talks about the latest Traders Pulse survey, which looks at the sentiment of investors who are making at least three dozen transactions per year, and in the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, discusses his 'beat and raise' strategy for buying stocks with momentum.

Andrew Foster, chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners, says that forecasts for China to become the world's largest economy -- surpassing the United States -- are based on overblown economic assumptions. He says China is revising numbers, which will put 'a substantial dampener on growth;' instead of growth rates projected at 6 percent, Foster says to expect economic deceleration that puts 'the point where China surpasses the US more in doubt' or much further out. Also on the show, Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, discusses how the pandemic helped to prove a number of key economic theories, which should help guide the way to what happens next, and Madhu Chaudhary, investment analyst, talks about the growth potential of Upstart Holdings, an online lending platform firm that uses artificial intelligence rather than classic credit scores to determine risk-worthy borrowers.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton, and the head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, says that the current math makes it hard for the market to double again the way it has in the last year, so he is expecting it to take another eight or nine years to see the next market double. That means investors should expect single-digit gains, which Dover thinks is reasonable given current market conditions, uncertainty over inflation, Covid-19, interest rates and more. Also on the show, Michele Schneider of MarketGauge.com talks technical analysis as the market keeps flirting with record highs, Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors, talks stock in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses -- and plays excerpts from -- his most recent telephone run-in with the law.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that the stock market is likely to follow the growth of corporate profits, which bodes well for heady gains over the next year or two, despite inflation and other concerns that will increase volatility and potentially cause setbacks. Luschini says that since grizzly and protracted bear markets rarely occur outside of a recession -- and with recession seeming like a remote possibility in the next 12 to 24 months -- investors should be prepared to stay the course but ride out the bumps. Also on the show, John Smallwood of Smallwood Wealth Management talks about factoring inflationary pressure into long-term portfolio decisions, law professor Robin Feldman discusses how the U.S. patent system currently is incentivizing failure and causing higher prices in health care, and David Trainer of New Constructs talks about how operating earnings measures are actually distorting the financial picture of companies like Marathon Petroleum and eBay.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, expects reasonable growth for the economy and the stock market into next year, but notes that depends on the Federal Reserve successfully managing interest rates, and Covid variants not re-igniting the pandemic to where consumers shut down even if the economy remains open. She expects secular growth and defensive stocks to be the outperformers as the economy moderates and returns more to normal; cyclical stocks and small-cap companies will see their recent outperformance end closer to the end of the year as growth slows. In the weekly NAVigator segment, John Cole Scott, founder/executive chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance and chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses how the right mix of issues in these vexing low-rate times can create 'synthetic bonds' that deliver above-average income to fuel investors' lives. Also on the show, technical analyst Michael Sincere, author of 'Understanding Options,' says he would not be surprised to see a market reversal -- potentially as big as a 10 percent correction -- in the next three months, and Dave Mazza of Direxion talks about the new ETFs the firm is cooking up and the investment themes he sees as interesting opportunities now.