Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist for Ned Davis Research, says that the market has room to run into next year, but that 2022 is likely to see much more volatility and much slower growth, even if inflation concerns start to fade and interest rates don't move dramatically higher. Clissold expects an earnings environment that is less friendly, traditional mid-term election year doldrums and more to hold the market to an average year overall, but with more pullbacks and downturns en route to that profitable finish. By contrast, Jim Welsh, macro strategist at Smart Portfolios, says the technicals -- along with some market history, plus higher inflation for longer than he believes most are expecting -- suggest that trouble is coming next year; unlike most technicians who have appeared on the show, Welsh expects the market to take a step back before starting a Santa Claus rally to finish 2021. Also on the show, Stephen Hester, partner at Wide Moat Research and editor at the Intelligent REIT Options Advisor newsletter, compares business-development companies to REITs as a portfolio tool, and financial adviser Tony Hixon discusses his book, 'Retirement Stepping Stones,' and how important it is for people to consider more than their finances as they prepare to end their working careers.

FeiFei Li, head of equities at Research Affiliates, says that any negative shock to the market could cause a 'very big correction,' but even without that kind of surprise events, she says that 'the market is facing a risk of delivering negative returns in the second half of 2022.' Despite the changing environment, Li is bullish on value investing moving forward, saying it should come to the fore as the market struggles. In the Market Call, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management, talks about global deep-value investing and the trouble some companies and industries must get into in order to be undervalued in today's market conditions; and with the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com explores a new, leveraged trend play in a narrow industry that's not for the faint of heart.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that current market valuations are at the top of their historical ranges, so 'anyone who is bullish on the market isn't going to be making a valuation argument.' Yet Ablin makes the argument that the market has room to run because the economic underpinnings remain strong and the Federal Reserve is still keeping liquidity strong despite inflation fears. Ablin discusses the wildcards that could change conditions in a hurry, but notes that investors are likely to be reasonably happy until the picture changes. Also on the show, portfolio manager Stan Majcher from Hotchkis and Wiley talks about the oil and energy markets -- and throws in a quick take on the financial sector too -- author Jennifer Moss discusses 'The Burnout Epidemic,' which is both her new book and a nationwide problem in the workforce, and Dan Keady, chief financial planning strategist at TIAA, covers the firm's latest survey, which showed that Americans have dual big concerns for retirement, specifically running out of money and running out of time.

Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer at Cambiar Investors, says that the Chinese government is changing the global investment picture and has him concerned about investing there, noting that investors can prosper from the growth of China's economy without facing the fire directly. Barish also notes that current financial conditions in the United States are 'generous,' leaving them mostly one way to go from here, making it that investors should think about protecting profits and lower expectations. By comparison, veteran technical analyst Martin Pring says that his long-term indicators show an economy that is nowhere close to a recession, despite dangerously high inflation rates, noting that his preferred market indicators mostly show room to run before a downturn or recession. Also on the show, Michelle Delgado discusses recent research from Clever Real Estate showing a growing disconnect between Americans' income and home prices, making houses hard to afford than ever before, and author Tanja Hester talks about 'Wallet Activism,' and how Americans can change their habits and their patterns to help themselves -- and society -- get the most out of every dollar they earn and spend.

Lou Harvey, president and chief executive officer at DALBAR Inc., says that investors can get unbiased advice that's in their best interest from the many new online 'robo advisor' platforms, but the trade-off is that the quality of advice is lower than hiring a human adviser. In the firm's most recent 'Best Interest Analysis,' DALBAR found significant issues with traditional advisers failing to work in the best interest of the client, a discrepancy he said is largely stemming from regulations which don't require all types of advisers to work to a fiduciary standard. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts 'salad company' Sweet Green in the Danger Zone, saying that the IPO is nearly worthless despite being highly valued out of the box; Brian Hamilton of One discusses the financial stresses Americans are already worrying about for the upcoming holidays, and Eric Marshall of the Hodges Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.

Clyde McGregor, portfolio manager for the Oakmark Equity and Income fund, says that while investors are using stocks now to deliver income the way fixed income has always done, it doesn't mean that investors should throw balance out the window. He notes that the point of a balanced portfolio is the ability to withstand volatility and rapid changes in the environment, and notes that portfolios remaining relatively close to a classic 60-40 stocks/bonds allocation continue achieving that, even in today's low-rate environment. Also on the show, D.R. Barton Jr. of Woodshaw Financial Group talks technicals, noting that market sentiment has turned sharply in the last few weeks, with a real appetite for risk having come back and driving the current rally -- despite possible small setbacks -- to the end of the year; Michael Spatacco of Bancroft Capital discusses changes in closed-end funds and how new structures are more significant to the industry than the development of exchange-traded funds was to traditional mutual funds, and Brian Yacktman, president of the YCG Funds, talks about stocks with 'enduring pricing power' in the Market Call.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, says that the current bull market -- coming on the heels of a short, steep recession/bear market at the beginning of the pandemic -- is in its early stages and will roll into 2022 and beyond. He notes that for as long as economic growth and earnings stay strong, buoyed by monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds, 'there's still some time, we think, for this bull market to have some tricks up its sleeves and keep on rolling.' In another Big Interview on today's show, George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that gold has not been a great inflation hedge at a time when investors are worried about the transitory nature of rising prices in large measure because the market doesn't expect inflation to last and has priced that into the metal. That said, Milling-Stanley still made a strong case for the role gold can play in a portfolio now, noting that he thinks this is a time to be loading up. And Tom Lydon, chief executive officer at ETFTrends.com makes a clean-energy index fund his ETF of the Week in light of the recent global summit on climate change.

Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that while the stock market has returned to record levels, he's not seeing the overpricing that is typical or a market peaking. Instead, stocks have further to run to reach fair value; he does see this bull run acting differently right now, with 'much more straight up -- and less down days -- than a typical bull market.' Callahan says that he expects the rally to continue until interest rates start to rise, which could squeeze valuations. Also on today's show, Brian Dress, director of research for Left Brain Investment Research, discusses Roku -- the firm's stock of the year in 2020 -- which has been working through some near-term troubles that have created a buying opportunity rather than a reason to bail out, and David Harden, chief investment officer at Summit Global Investments, talks low-volatility and factor investing, a love-hate relationship with Morningstar ratings and more in a wide-ranging Market Call.

Dan Zanger, chief technical strategist at ChartPattern.com, says that the stock market is the best and strongest he has seen since 1999 and he expects it to keep running through to the end of the year, but then he believes there will be a sell-off, a correction that takes the top off the market and helps it set a new base for further upside in 2022. Zanger says the market has plenty of energy and room to run so long as the Federal Reserve doesn't change policies and stop its momentum. Also on the show, Chuck discusses a wide range of stocks that he thinks are appropriate as gifts for children this holiday season or any time you are looking to teach youngsters about money, and we revisit a recent conversation with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors, who says that investors with a value mindset need to look for 'undervalued growth companies and value companies that can grow.'

Brad Lamensdorf, editor of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF, says that while the market is at record levels, valuations are not so high that it's particularly easy to find shorts. In the Market Call segment, Lamensdorf discusses how it's a stockpicker's market, both for long investors and short-sellers, with rising indexes having masked a lot of individual opportunities. Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief at Bankrate.com talks about implications from last week's economic reports, emerging markets and international fund manager Tunde Ojo from Harding Loevner discusses China and other foreign markets now, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts the Danger Zone spotlight back on EventBrite, the concert promoter that he says is wildly overvalued.