Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Craig Callahan, founder of ICON Advisers and author of a new book, 'Unloved Bull Markets,' says that investors who have relied heavily on price-earnings ratios to evaluate stocks have been fooled. He says that p/e ratios are 'totally worthless in predicting future returns, and notes that stocks were never overvalued in the long bull market run after the 2008 financial crisis, nor are they overvalued now, in a bull market that has only been stalled by current events. He adds that investors who focus on macro concerns like war, inflation and interest rates are missing the ground level action where individual companies look good. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com heads to the oil patch with an energy pick impacted by global events for his 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck gives his quick take on how to read the Federal Reserve's moves and statements from Wednesday, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.

Michael Power, strategist at NinetyOne, says that investors might be tempted to run away from the market, but there is no real place to hide with high inflation and low yields making it that the traditional safe-havens are losing purchasing power. Power says that there is a possibility of recession arriving late last year or early in 2024, which makes diversification across asset types and around the globe prudent. Also on the show, Lou Harvey, president at DALBAR Inc., discusses the firm's research on asset-allocation models and about their new Prudent Asset Allocation method, which has adherents lock down the core of their nestegg but be more aggressive with their remaining holdings to produce bigger-but-safer results. Plus Carol Anderson of MQ Research and Education discusses how well financial advisers are building and retaining trust at a time when meetings are infrequent, and Chuck reads a special letter he received from an audince member who is about to have his pursuit of life overtake his pursuit of money.

Meb Faber, co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that investors aren't just dealing with headline issues of war, inflation and rising interest rates, but he notes that the market has turned to what he called an 'expensive downtrend,' which is historically a time when returns tend to be zero or negative. Faber says he worries that this could be a moment where investors could blink and turn around to say 'Wow, when did all of these stocks go down 75 percent.' He says that the right way for investor to get through these kinds of conditions is through proper diversification, including significant international exposure even though current events make it hard emotionally to invest overseas. In the Talking Technicals segment, Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors says that conservative investors should be waiting for the market to see several strong consecutive days -- or a 1,000-point plus day -- before they consider the recent downturn as potentially turning into a buying opportunity. And in the Market Call, Robert Cantwell of Upholdings and the Compound Kings ETF talks about the importance of finding the right kind of long-term growth, and discusses why that currently has him a bit sour on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, but sweet on Amazon.com and Meta Platforms (Facebook), which he says are trading at 'a multiple that we have not seen in their publicly traded histories.'

George Kinder, president of The Kinder Institute of Life Planning -- generally recognized as the biggest moving force behind the life-planning approach to personal financial management -- says that investors need to look at where they can minimize risks in current conditions, but do that without blowing up financial plans because they are better off holding to their plans than changing them just because of current or even persistent economic and global events. Kinder says that the pandemic and other conditions have actually helped many people make progress on their life plans, because it simplified the economics for many people and helped them focus on what is important. In the Danger Zone segment, Kyle Guske of New Constructs looks at Airbnb and Squarespace, two stocks that have been hammered during the market's recent fall but where he believes the troubles are only starting and there's another big loss to come. And in the Market Call, hedge-fund manager Steven Grey of Grey Value Management discusses the importance of getting your buy prices right, noting that buy-and-hold investors who overpay dramatically for a stock are committing a form of 'slow-motion financial suicide.'

Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says 'the enemy right now for investors in the market is time,' and understanding how to be patient, because the market's current troubles are masking economic strength and the likelihood of a U-shaped recovery. He expects that a record year for corporate buybacks and an investing public that is flush with cash should buffer the market against any prolonged downturn, creating a recovery for patient investors who ride it out. In the Talking technicals segment, Matt Fox of Ithaca Wealth Management says we are currently experiencing a cyclical bear market within a secular bull market, but notes that that charts are 'screaming caution,' and that investors who have been conditioned to buy every dip should be waiting for 'a wash-out in sentiment before the charts give an all-clear.' Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence and the Active Investment Company Alliance returns to The NAVigator to answer listener questions about the persistence of discounts, and Joe Rinaldi of Quantum Financial Advisors talks both stocks and exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that war, inflation and more are changing the narrative for the market, but mostly for the short term. He still believes the domestic stock market is positioned to outperform later this year and into 2023 as the strong economy is able to flex its muscle and have influence that overcomes the headlines. He suggests looking for companies in areas that are becoming undervalued now, like small-cap stocks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, chief executive officer at ETFTrends.com, makes the ETF of the Week a trend-following play on a commodity and, in the Market Call, Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist for Morningstar, makes his debut talking about stocks and a market that he says has pivoted from overvalued to about 10 percent undervalued now after the early struggles of the year, making it much easier to find stocks worth buying.

Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily says that current conditions are worrisome enough that investors may not be able to adjust their attitudes quickly, as they do in more normal times. Discussing the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, Carson discusses how the big decline this month was caused by gas prices as much or more than by war in Ukraine, but he notes that given how fast prices have risen at the pump, the decline in confidence may just be getting started. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about which investment companies are avoiding Russia, and author Joe Sanok chats about changing your lifestyle and making Thursday 'the New Friday.' In the Market Call, Andrew Graham of Jackson Square Capital talks stocks and in the lightning round revisits three securities that Chuck discussed on yesterday's show with David Harden of Summit Global investments.

Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton Investments, says that the experts have been off the mark in forecasting how the market would respond to the war in Ukraine, to rising inflation and more, which has him focusing on individual stocks and their fundamentals rather than letting the macro-economic outlook determine investment positions. Turning to the market's technicals, Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says the current decline is not yet a buy-the-dip opportunity, and that he will remain on the sidelines until the tide turns and investors start rushing to put their cash to work. nd in the Market Call, David Harden, chief investment officer at Summit Global Investments, talks during the Market Call about managing volatility in stocks during these back-and-forth times.

Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, says he expects unemployment to drop potentially below the 3 percent level -- which is better than so-called 'full employment' -- which takes 'the stag' out of stagflation possibilities. With the jobs market not being stagnant, Weniger says the economy can power through rising inflation and interest-rate concerns to keep moving forward, even if consumers and investors suffer some discomfort along the way. Also on the show, David Trainer re-visits Danger Zone picks Shopify and Coinbase after their recent earnings reports and says that the big recent declines in each stock are still just the beginning of the problems for investors who stick around. In the Market Call, Bernie Horn of Polaris Global Value talks stocks and the impact that the war in Ukraine is having on global markets.

Katie Stockton, founder at Fairlead Strategies, says the market appears to be in a long-term trading range for 2022, not because of the geopolitical concerns over war in Ukraine or the worrisome inflation numbers or pressure on interest rates at home, but instead based on technical reasons which show that the major indexes have lost upside momentum and will struggle to get it back. In the Big Interview, Scott Knapp, chief market strategist for CUNA Mutual Group, says that the conflict in Ukraine has changed the headlines, but it shouldn't have changed portfolios much because economic struggles were easy to foresee at the end of last year; likewise, he's not changing his outlook or strategy for 2022 until he sees a slowdown in demand and a reduction in gross domestic product. This show also features John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance, discussing the promising investments created by an important recent evolution in closed-end funds, and Kevin Kelly of Kelly ETFs -- a firm with funds specializing in gene-editing technology, residential and apartment real estate, and hotel and lodging companies -- talks stocks in the Market Call.