The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Bold, bipartisan centred planning is key to ensuring New Zealand doesn't succumb to the effects of a dwindling population and economic growth.   A new BusinessNZ report's calling for a cross-party vision and long-term goals to strengthen the country by 2050.   It notes a labour shortage of at least a quarter of a million is expected before then, and there's also a one in four chance the population doesn't grow.  Advocacy Director Catherine Beard says businesses are sick of political u-turns and flip-flops.  She told Mike Hosking we’re currently stumbling towards the future in a blindfolded fashion, and the report is designed to get everyone to think outside of the box.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A welfare expert says one of the Government's grants is a good idea in principle.   The Taxpayers’ Union has revealed the business start up grant has dished out $38 million with little to show for it.   Documents retrieved through the Official Information Act show hundreds of the recipients struggled and returned to a benefit within two years.   Former Welfare Expert Advisory Group member Phil O'Reilly told Mike Hosking the execution was woefully bad.   He says the problem is MSD spent far too much and there wasn't enough mentoring or measuring of outcomes.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are concerns overseas opioid abuse trends are taking hold here.   The Drug Detection Agency's data for the three months to September finds opioids showed up in 18% of positive tests.  It warns opioid detections are stabilising at this high level, while some regions like Gisborne recorded a sharp increase of 41%.  CEO Glenn Dobson told Mike Hosking the test results are a good oversight of what’s happening in our society in relation to the supply of drugs.   He says there's more of those drugs being sold illicitly globally, so it could be picking up here too.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A weak construction industry's done nothing to help low completion rates among apprenticeships.  Vocational Education Minister Penny Simmonds says more than half of apprentices in training are dropping out.  She's seeking extra funding so new industry bodies can investigate the number of dropouts.  Building and Construction ITO Director Greg Durkin told Mike Hosking there's been a significant drop in building work since 2023.  He says this has had an impact on people completing their apprenticeships, when they can go down the road and maybe get a couple dollars more in a different role.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is how we end up in trouble. Things are said that aren't challenged.  Here's the headline: "NZ will be dumping ground for high emission cars".  That was a claim from an EV lobby group. I wonder why they would say that?  Chris Hipkins said, or was allowed to say, that we had one of the highest uptakes of EVs in the world and the Government stopped it.  Now, let's deal with fact and context. The Government in their announcement over car import charges has a mess on its hands and it's a mess because the previous Government invented a set of rules that don't work, didn’t work and were never going to work.  They gerrymandered a market and that is rarely smart economics, or politics.  Hipkins' reference was to his subsidy scheme for EVs when the taxpayer gave thousands to middle class Tesla buyers.  Now, was it one of the highest uptakes in the world? I don’t know, but it certainly helped sales because discounted stuff and stuff paid for by other people tends to help sales.  If the Government offered to renovate your bathroom, I reckon bathroom renovations would explode.  As for a dumping ground? How about less snobbery and more acceptance that New Zealanders are allowed to buy the sort of car they want? A lot of people don’t have $50,000-80,000 (or even $30,000 if you go Chinese) for an EV.  Even if they do a lot of people simply don’t want an EV – some people want a hybrid and that’s fine.  But you direct people through taxes towards outcomes at your peril. The climate obsession has upended markets and driven a level of complexity through charges that the Government literally doesn’t know how to get out of.  They have importers bringing cars in they can't sell. What's the point of that?  People will buy what people will buy. This isn't China where you are told what to do and when you are cajoled, allegedly through tax and fees, look what happens.  The biggest irony is supply is an issue. The importers can't get the stock they need. Why not?  Well one reason is because we drive on the opposite side of the road than a lot of countries. And the other is that manufacturers are pulling back on production of the cars that the Government scheme wants you to import.  Why are they doing that you ask? Because they can't sell them!  Obsession, interference, meddling and stupidity will trip you up every time. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The UK Government's confirmed plans for a major overhaul of the country's immigration system to stem the flow of illegal immigration.  Asylum seekers will need to wait at least 20 years for permanent residency and won't be guaranteed financial support.  Failed asylum seekers and their families may face deportation to countries like Syria.  The UK Government claims the country's immigration rules haven't kept up with a changing world.  UK Correspondent Rod Liddle told Mike Hosking there’s a lot of devil in the details.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well, welcome back Opportunity. I think I have that right.  Opportunity is the former "The Opportunities Party". Now it's just "The Opportunity Party".  It has a new leader and a new tax policy. They have been looking for a leader for ages and they even advertised.  None of this is a good sign.  Their biggest problem is the market is full – there is no room for another political party.  There was no room 10 years ago and there's even less room now.  Now, I don't, but you could argue that as the MMP environment evolves and matures some nuance is sought by a frustrated electorate. A boutique operator if you will.  The major parties have faded and the days of National and Labour cracking 40% are gone.  The days of a two-party Government might well be gone as well. So as it all fragments, surely there must be room for a small operator wedging its way in between, say, National and Labour as a sort of mid-way, subtle alternative.  The trouble is, and I argued this years ago when Gareth Morgan was running the joint, 5% is actually a lot of votes and very few, if any, crack it.  Look at ACT's journey – for years they needed a deal in Epsom to work the system and the coattail.  There is a reason United vanished.  What they should have done is run Morgan in an electorate. Name recognition would have helped, and he may have got the seat, got 2%, and had a party of 2-3 MPs. Being in and staying in is easier than getting there in the first place.  Here is their other issue: nuance is not what we do. That’s why radicals are gaining support all over the world, from Pauline Hanson in Australia to the minor players who make up Government's in the likes of Holland and Germany.  You need to be more left, or right, than centre.  Could we also argue that New Zealand First is centrist, given they are the only party that can legitimately claim the ability to deal with either National or Labour?  So good on them for keeping the Opportunity dream alive.  They're still here after a decade. They're either visionaries whose time is yet to come, or dreamers who can't read the room. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

International relations and geopolitics have become increasingly complex in the last few decades, many countries in the Pacific pulled between China and the United States – the two superpowers at odds with each other.  But former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull believes the relationships with the two are equally important.  “The relationship with the US is obviously the bedrock of our security relationship,” he told Mike Hosking.  “Whereas the relationship with China is, you know, much more focused on economics and trade, but the two, these two superpowers are absolutely critical partners.”   China has been working to grow its influence in the Pacific, the area presenting several strategic opportunities for the nation – but is it a cause for concern?  “The reality is that China is a superpower,” Turnbull told Hosking.   “It is, you know, an economic peer equal or close to an equal of the United States, and they’re seeking to exert influence around the world and in our region.”   He says they want to maintain strong relationships with their Pacific Island neighbours, and one way they did that while he was Prime Minister was through the funding of the Coral Cable, which links Australia, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands.  “We thought that was a better outcome from a security point of view,”  “But also, it was a better outcome for them because they weren’t in debt.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 18th of November, the Government is slashing emissions charges for bringing in new cars and launching a full review of the Clean Car Standard. Uber drivers have had a major win in the Supreme Court with four drivers now ruled to be employees, not contractors. Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was in the country, so we took the time to catch up about his calamitous former party and the state of our country's relationship. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Northland holiday park's scrapping its TVs to allow nature to take centre stage.  Russell–Orongo Bay Holiday Park is one of the first holiday parks in New Zealand to go completely TV-free.  It's encouraging guests to unplug from screens and reconnect with the natural world.  Park Manager Shane Maddren told Mike Hosking they have plenty of activities to keep guests occupied.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.